Final Four #KPI Notes (4/5/14)

Some last minute notes and numbers from AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

· The four Final Four teams combined to go 124-27 (.821), but went 62-21 (.747) in conference games/including conference tournaments and 62-6 (.912) in non-conference games/including NCAA Tournament. Of the 6 non-conference losses the four schools combined for, two were vs each other (Florida’s two losses). The other 4? Kentucky vs Michigan State, Kentucky vs Baylor, Kentucky vs North Carolina, Connecticut vs Stanford.
· Non-Conference SOS (including NCAA Tournament games) is top-6 for all 4 Final Four teams (calculated by the average KPI of each opponent)
· Florida has played each of the other Final Four teams. None of the other 3 teams have played each other this year. UConn and Wisconsin are the only two teams to beat Florida. Florida swept Kentucky.
· Florida leads the country with 19 road/neutral wins (19-2). Wichita State won 18 such games, followed by Michigan State and Stephen F. Austin with 17 each.
· Northwestern’s win at Wisconsin was the 3rd largest outlier game of the season by KPI formula (1-Boston College at Syracuse, 2-Illinois-Chicago at Milwaukee).
· Wisconsin was the only team not to play in their conference tournament championship game. Florida was the only team to win their conference tournament. Florida was also the only team with a regular season conference championship.

Final Four Team Numbers
· Kentucky (+7.8 FTA/game) and Wisconsin (+7.6 FTA/game) are 5th and 6th nationally in FTA differential per game. Florida is 20th (+6.3 FTA/G) while UConn is 123rd (+1.3/game). Kentucky is 7th in FTA/poss (0.43), followed by Wisconsin (71st, 0.36), Florida (81st, 0.35) and UConn (214th, 0.32)
· Wisconsin is 2nd nationally in opponent FTA per possession (0.24). Florida is 9th (0.25), UConn 90th (0.30) and Kentucky 143rd (0.32). Can Kentucky (2nd in FTA per possession offensively) get to the FT line against Wisconsin (2nd in FTA per possession defensively)? (Also, goes to officiating, where .64 more fouls per team, per game are being called over last year’s NCAA Tournament, but fouls called are down 1.45 per team, per game from the regular season).
· Wisconsin is 3rd nationally in foul differential (-5.1 PF/game) and Kentucky is 10th nationally (-3.8 PF/game). Wisconsin is 2nd nationally in foul differential per possession, followed by Kentucky (7th), Florida (13th) and UConn (144th). Kentucky draws 22.3 fouls per game from their opponents, 10th best nationally. They draw 0.33 per possession, 2nd best nationally.
· Florida is 15th in foul differential (-3.4 PF/game) and UConn is 123rd (-0.6 PF/game). FTA Per Possession: UConn 0.32 (214th), Florida 0.35 (81st). UConn negates the Florida advantage of getting to the line more often by shooting FTs significantly better. FTM Per Possession: UConn 0.25 (89th), Florida 0.24 (150th). Florida allows opponents the 9th fewest FTA per possession (0.25), UConn allows the 90th fewest (0.30 FTA/poss).
· Wisconsin is 2nd nationally in fewest turnovers per possession (0.13). UConn is 97th (0.17), Florida is 118th (0.18) and Kentucky is 175th (0.18). Furthermore, Kentucky is 312th in turnovers forced per possession (0.16) and Wisconsin is 330th (0.15).
· Offensive Rebounding Percentage: 1-Kentucky (43%), 52-Florida (35%), 213-UConn (31%), 286-Wisconsin (28%).
· Defensive Rebounding Percentage: 16-Wisconsin (73%), 42-Florida (72%), 118-Kentucky (70%), 263-UConn (67%) – Kentucky’s strong offensive rebounding vs. Wisconsin’s strong defensive rebounding is critical.
· Total Rebounding Percentage: 2-Kentucky (57%), 21-Florida (54%), 133-Wisconsin (51%), 182-UConn (50%)
· Percent of Points from Made FGs: 133-Florida (79%), 221-UConn (77%), 237-Wisconsin (77%), 335-Kentucky (74%)
· Percent of Points from Made FTs: 18-Kentucky (26%), 116-Wisconsin (23%), 132-UConn (23%), 220-Florida (21%)
· Percent of FGAs that are 3’s: 44-Wisconsin (39%), 119-Florida (35%), 135-UConn (34%), 289-Kentucky (28%)
· Offensive Possessions/Game: 203-Kentucky (66.9), 242-UConn (66.0), 335-Wisconsin (63.1), 336-Florida (63.1)

Offensive Production (Calculated as difference between a team’s PPP to date and the average of all their opponents defensive PPP): 4-Wisconsin +.164, 12-Kentucky +.122, 22-Florida +.105; 40-UConn +.080

Defensive Production (Calculated as difference between a team’s defensive PPP to date and the average of all their opponents offensive PPP): 4-Florida +.159; 11-UConn +.113; 38-Kentucky +.081; 40-Wisconsin +.079

Overall Production (50% Off P, 50% Def P): 3-Florida .264; 5-Wisconsin .243; 12-Kentucky .203; 19-UConn .193

When comparing offensive and defensive production vs. team’s offensive PPP (7-Wisconsin 1.16, 43-Kentucky 1.13, 54-Florida 1.12, 77-UConn 1.10) and defensive PPP (6-Florida .911, 24-UConn .957, 73-Wisconsin .996, 77-Kentucky .998), the expected final scores based on PPP and production to date are:

Florida 66.8, UConn 62.4 (+4.43) / Expected Pace: 64.7 poss/team / Expected PPP: Florida 1.032, UConn .964
Wisconsin 73.2, Kentucky 70.6 (+2.66) / Expected Pace: 65.2 poss/team / Expected PPP: Wisconsin 1.123, Kentucky 1.082

NCAA Tournament Trends
Through the regional finals of the 2013 and 2014 NCAA Tournaments (64 games):
Steals are down 13.4% (.84 per game)
Turnovers are down 14.5% (1.75 per game)
Scoring is up 4.6% (3.03 PPG), up 3.4% per minute (factoring in increased number of OT games this year)
Fouls are up 4.1% (.70 per game), up 2.9% per minute, FTA are up 5.2% (.98 per game), up 4.0% per minute.
FG% is up from 42.3% to 44.2%, FT% is up from 71.2% to 72.7%
Points Per Possession are up 5.8% (from 1.006 to 1.064)

Of the 3.03 PPG increase, 2.25 points come from more made 2’s (72.0% of increase), 0.99 points from more made FT’s (31.7% of increase) and made 3’s are down 0.21 PPG (-6.7% of increase).

The oversimplified narrative: Scoring is up because (1) about 1 would be steal/turnover is being called a foul per team and (2) FG% is up – because an extra foul per game is being called on what may have been a missed shot.

This is the #KPI

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#KPI Blog: Tracking NCAA Scoring Trends

All season long, the #KPI has examined statistical trends as it relates to the rules of college basketball.  The NCAA Tournament, where the stakes are the highest, is no different.

Scoring tends to fall come NCAA Tournament time. Over the last three years (since the field expanded to 68), NCAA Tournament scoring has dropped 1.50 PPG in 2011 (down 2.2% from regular season), 1.55 PPG (down 2.3% from regular season) and 1.72 PPG (down 2.6% from regular season).

PPG in NCAA Tournament 3-yr Avg 2013 2012 2011
First Round 65.5 67.5 64.5 64.5
Second Round 65.9 64.5 66.4 66.7
Third Round 67.4 66.7 65.0 70.4
Sweet 16 68.7 67.4 68.3 70.4
Elite Eight 68.8 64.5 73.3 68.8
Final Four 63.0 64.3 64.0 60.8
Championship 63.0 79.0 63.0 47.0
All NCAA Games 66.6 65.8 66.5 67.6
Regular Season 67.5 68.0 69.1

Scoring Margin has averaged 11.3 PPG over the last three NCAA Tournaments.  Over a three-year period, margins in the second round (13.2 PPG) and third round (10.8 PPG) have been greatest as one might expect.  The average margin for each round of the tournament over the last three seasons:

Margin in NCAA Tournament 3-yr Avg 2013 2012 2011
First Round 9.2 9.0 7.5 11.0
Second Round 13.2 15.2 11.1 13.2
Third Round 10.8 12.1 9.7 10.4
Sweet 16 9.0 8.8 8.4 10.0
Elite Eight 10.0 15.5 9.0 5.5
Final Four 4.7 4.5 5.0 4.5
Championship 8.7 6.0 8.0 12.0
All NCAA Games 11.3 12.9 9.9 11.3

In games deemed upsets (won by the lower seed), the average margin has been 7.9 PPG over the last three seasons. When the higher seed wins, the average margin is 12.8 PPG.

There were 24 “upsets” (games won by the lower seeded team, wearing the dark uniforms) in 2013, 18 “upsets” in 2012 and 22 “upsets” in 2011.  32% of games are “upsets” while 68% of games are won by the better seed.

Scoring tends to fall during the postseason because the number of possessions in a game tend to fall.  In conference tournament action this year, scoring fell to 68.2 PPG (compared to 69.7 PPG in conference games and 72.1 PPG in non-conference).  The number of possessions per game, per team fell to 65.1 possessions/game in conference tournaments (from 66.5 in conference games and 69.4 during the non-conference).  Most other data was consistent on a per-possession basis and reflected the decrease in possessions, and hence longer possessions.  Full data from the 2013-14 season is also available at kpisports.net.

Teams averaged 70.7 PPG during the regular season this year.  Weekly scoring fell as the season progressed.  Week by week scoring trends over the last four seasons can be found here.

Enjoy the games!

This is the #KPI

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#KPI Blog: Evaluating the #KPI

Hello from beautiful Spokane.  Admittedly, it’s been a whirlwind couple of days as the #KPI computers have made their way from Indianapolis Sunday, to East Lansing late Sunday night via bus and to Spokane late Monday.  With Michigan State playing in the Big Ten Tournament championship game, there was no opportunity to update data prior to the Selection Show on Sunday (heck, I didn’t even make it to a television until the South Region was well announced!).

I felt badly that I didn’t get anything posted before Sunday’s Selection Show (though it was quite obvious that win or lose Sunday, nothing was getting posted).  I want to thank the folks at http://bracketmatrix.com/ for choosing the #KPI to be part of the formula. My ranking there is based as of math as of 7 a.m. on Sunday.  No human element, no update on Sunday.  And that’s ok and understood.  Their site is an incredible tool.

I have been keeping a 1-68 list separate from the #KPI.  That list got 67/68 teams correct.  40 teams were seeded correctly, 64 were within one seed line and the other 3 in that field were off by two seeds.  The average difference in seeding was .448.  I won’t publish that list until after the NCAA Tournament is over for several reasons.

Again, thank you for the incredible interest in the #KPI this year.  The interest has far exceeded my expectations and has been quite humbling.  It was quite fun getting texts and calls from people asking what their #KPI would be if they won this game or made it how far in their conference tournament.  There is still plenty more data coming as the month progresses.  I hope readers continue to be interested.

#KPI Headlines:

  • Greg Shaheen authored a fascinating look at bracketing through his Twitter timeline Monday night:
  • I had a fun look at some things to expect from the bracket (it may or may not have been published around 3:30 a.m. ET on Sunday morning): http://kpisports.net/2014/03/16/week-18-sunday-kpi-basketball-as-of-31614-7am-et/.
  • 19 of 31 conference tournaments were won by someone other than the No. 1 seed.
  • Scoring was up 2.87 PPG (up 4.39%) from 65.3 PPG to 68.2 PPG in conference tournament play this year when compared to 2012-13.  Week 19 (March 10-16) was the lowest scoring week of the season (67.4 PPG).  The next lowest total was 68.9 PPG (Jan 13-19).  Week 19 was also the lowest of the season for possessions (64.6), field goal attempts (53.9), 3-pt field goal attempts (17.7), assists (11.4), steals (5.6) and turnovers (11.3).  As has been said all year, the number of possessions (hence pace of play) has a lot to do with the decreases we have seen week to week.

Dissecting the #KPI formula how it relates to the actual NCAA Tournament seeding:

THE GOOD:

  • The top-8 teams in the #KPI all landed a 1 or 2 seed. Arizona, Florida, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Villanova and Michigan were all on the exact seed line.  Kansas was a No. 1 seed in the math while Virginia was a No. 2 seed. They were flipped.
  • All 16 teams seeded 1-4 appeared in the top-17 of the #KPI.  The lone exception was Mountain West Tournament champion New Mexico, who earned a 7 seed.
  • Of the last 18 AQ teams in the tournament (13 seed or below), 14 of 18 were seeded correctly.  Western Michigan and Delaware were swapped in the #KPI, as were Eastern Kentucky and North Carolina Central.
  • 50.8% of teams who made the tournament were placed on their exact seed line by #KPI math.  77.8% were exact or within one seed line while 88.9% were exact or within two seed lines.
  • The average differential between #KPI and tournament seeds was 0.825.
  • The last four teams below the cut line who made the NCAA Tournament: Tennessee, N.C. State, Iowa and Xavier (in that order).  All four of those teams are playing in Dayton Tuesday and Wednesday night.  The eight teams playing in Dayton are the exact four lowest #KPI AQ teams and the exact four lowest #KPI at-large teams based on who made the tournament.
  • Between the NCAA and NIT, the #KPI got 96 of 100 teams in the two tournaments (96%).  The #KPI had Georgia and LSU as the first two teams out of the NIT, while West Virginia and Indiana State were a few spots back.

THE NOT SO GOOD

  • I’ll admit that I wanted badly to land 68/68 teams this year.  It didn’t happen.  Because of how some things fell, I became at the mercy of certain teams winning their conference tournaments.  Green Bay, Louisiana Tech and Belmont all received automatic bids to the NIT, but were actually above my cut line.  Green Bay’s win over Virginia, Louisiana Tech’s win at Oklahoma and Belmont’s win at North Carolina were all great wins, but only enough to inflate their #KPI, not enough to get them in the tournament.
  • North Dakota State, Harvard and Stephen F. Austin were higher in the #KPI than the 12 seeds that each team received.
  • The #KPI math missed on New Mexico – the largest outlier at a difference of 4 seed lines.  Remove New Mexico from the equation, and the #KPI had 14 of the top 16 teams seeded correctly (with only Virginia and Kansas swapped on the first four lines).
  • Among at-large teams, the #KPI undervalued Colorado, Memphis and Kansas State.

This is the #KPI

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WEEK 18 SUNDAY #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 3/16/14, 7am ET)

Happy Selection Sunday!  There is a lot of data to dig through below.  Anecdotes throughout Sunday can be found on Twitter at @KPIsports (though I’ll be slightly preoccupied during the Big Ten Tournament championship game at 3:30 p.m. ET).  Thank you for following along!

The #KPI Excel file is now online to customize: http://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/full-kpi-thru-3-15-14.xlsx.  Eat your heart out.

#KPI Headlines:

  • Full #KPI data (by team) as of Sunday 7 a.m. ET.  #KPI data (by conference) also exists as of Sunday morning.
  • Pay attention to the #KPI value more than the ranking as we approach the Selection Show.  For example, Nebraska (No. 51) is in nearly a dead tie for one of the final at-large spots as of Sunday mornings.  There are several clusters among seeding, including a group of six teams separated by .005 and a group of five teams separated by .002.
  • 16 conference tournaments have been won by someone other than the No. 1 seed.  Five more will play Sunday.  The Atlantic 10 No. 1 seed (Saint Louis) was eliminated, meaning the total will hit at least 17 of the 31 conference tournaments.
  • As in past years, conference tournament scoring trended downward from regular season numbers.  Week 19 (Mar 10-16) produced a season-low 67.4 PPG (up from 66.9 PPG during Week 19 in 2012-13).  The previous low this year was 68.9 PPG (Jan 13-19).  Possessions per game were at a season-low 64.7 per game.  Field goal attempts (53.8), 3-pt attempts (17.7), steals (5.6) and turnovers (11.4) were at season low averages this week.

Bracket Trends to Look For:

  • Florida is likely the No. 1 seed in the South (Orlando/Memphis), Arizona the No. 1 in the West (San Diego/Anaheim) and Wichita State the No. 1 in the Midwest (St. Louis/Indianapolis). The fourth one seed (likely headed to the East Region at Madison Square Garden) could create the need for a contingency bracket based on the result of the Big Ten championship game.
  • Look for Florida and Wichita State to play the winner of the play-in games.  Florida would play the winner of Tuesday’s early game Thursday in Orlando while Wichita State would play the winner of Wednesday’s first round game Friday in St. Louis.  The fourth number one seed could play this group if the committee prefers the geography of Milwaukee.  The 16 seeds likely to play in Dayton are Albany, Cal Poly, Mount St. Mary’s and Texas Southern.
  • With a few new bracketing principles this year, look for seeding to be more in line with what people project (since there will be fewer seed line adjustments for bracketing).  Also, look for geography to play a bigger role in regional placement without conference matchups happening all that early, all that often.
  • There are no bid stealers left to play in any of Sunday’s games.  The only question remaining relative to who is in the field comes from the Sun Belt championship (Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Georgia State).  Look for Georgia State in the No. 13 seed range with a win.  If ULL wins, they could fall closer to a low No. 14/high No. 15 seed.
  • Much like Middle Tennessee in 2013, there may be a team from a non-power conference who plays in Dayton on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Southern Miss, Toledo and Louisiana Tech each won 27 games.  Green Bay won 24 games, including a home win over ACC regular season champion Virginia.  The #KPI likes teams who win 27 games and as a result the formula is more likely to miss on a few of those teams.  Some of the power conference teams at the top of the pile on the NIT list are very much in play for NCAA Tournament bids based on the math.
  • The first round games for at-large teams are likely to fall one each at the 11 and 12 seed lines.  The 12 seed will feed into the one 4/5 bracket that doesn’t play the first weekend out west (2 pods in Spokane, 1 pod in San Diego) while the other will play on the 11 seed line to avoid a western travel schedule.
  • Look for the 4/5 and 3/6 pods to be filled by a lot of Spokane and San Antonio.  There could be a left over spot from San Diego, Buffalo and Orlando as well.  Raleigh (Virginia/Duke), Milwaukee (Michigan/Wisconsin) and St. Louis (Wichita State/Kansas) are likely to have pods with higher seeds.
  • Including Green Bay and Belmont, there are 11 automatic qualifiers into the NIT (leaving only 21 at-large teams).  There will likely be several high profile schools left out of the NIT that will draw people’s attention.
  • Games missed by key players will be a hot topic Sunday night for several teams – including some players who may not participate in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Another hot topic: winning and losing streaks.  Several teams had significant winning and losing streaks that produced several outlier results based on #KPI data.
  • The Big 12 is likely to get 7 of 10 teams (70%) into the NCAA Tournament field.  It could also be a big day for the Atlantic 10.

#KPI NCAA Tournament Field of 68 (as of Sunday, March 16, 7 a.m. ET): Automatic bids from the 32 conferences are determined by the top remaining seed if the AQ has not already been decided.  This list is comprised purely by math with no scrubbing.

  1. #1 Arizona (30-4, 17-4 Pac-12), .363
  2. SEC / #2 Florida (31-2, 20-0 SEC), .342
  3. MVC / #3 Wichita State (34-0, 21-0 MVC), .322
  4. #4 Kansas (24-9, 15-5 Big 12), .315
  5. #5 Wisconsin (26-7, 13-7 Big Ten), .313
  6. #6 Villanova (28-4, 16-3 Big East), .297
  7. BIG TEN / #7 Michigan (25-7, 17-3 Big Ten), .288
  8. ACC / #8 Virginia (27-6, 18-2 ACC), .280
  9. #9 Duke (26-7, 15-5 ACC), .268
  10. MOUNTAIN WEST / #10 New Mexico (27-6, 18-3 Mountain West), .264
  11. BIG 12 / #11 Iowa State (26-7, 14-7 Big 12), .262
  12. #12 Creighton (26-7, 16-5 Big East), .260
  13. #13 Syracuse (27-5, 14-5 ACC), .259
  14. ATLANTIC 10 / #14 VCU (26-7, 14-4 A-10), .258
  15. AMERICAN / #15 Louisville (29-5, 18-3 American), .255
  16. PAC-12 /#16 UCLA (26-8, 15-6 Pac-12), .254
  17. #17 San Diego State (29-4, 18-3 Mountain West), .249
  18. #18 Michigan State (25-8, 14-6 Big Ten), .242
  19. #19 Ohio State (25-9, 12-9 Big Ten), .233
  20. #20 Kentucky (24-9, 14-6 SEC), .231
  21. #21 Massachusetts (24-8, 11-7 A-10), .230
  22. #22 Cincinnati (27-6, 16-4 American), .230
  23. #23 Saint Louis (26-6, 13-4 A-10), .229
  24. WCC / #24 Gonzaga (28-6, 18-3 WCC), .228
  25. #25 Connecticut (26-8, 14-7 American), .224
  26. #26 North Carolina (23-9, 13-6 ACC), .220
  27. #27 Oklahoma (23-9, 12-7 Big 12), .214
  28. #28 Oregon (23-9, 11-9 Pac-12), .212
  29. #29 Baylor (24-11, 12-10 Big 12), .206
  30. #30 George Washington (24-8, 12-6 A-10), .204
  31. #31 Texas (23-10, 12-8 Big 12), .198
  32. SUMMIT / #32 North Dakota State (25-6, 14-2 Summit), .195
  33. #33 Pittsburgh (25-9, 13-8 ACC), .191
  34. IVY / #34 Harvard (26-4, 13-1 Ivy), .187
  35. #35 Saint Joseph’s (23-9, 13-5 A-10), .187
  36. SOUTHLAND / #36 Stephen F. Austin (31-2, 20-0 Southland), .186
  37. #37 Dayton (23-10, 11-7 A-10), .186
  38. #38 Southern Miss (27-6, 14-4 C-USA), .185
  39. #38 BYU (23-11, 15-6 WCC), .179
  40. #40 Toledo (27-6, 15-5 MAC), .177
  41. #41 Colorado (23-11, 12-9 Pac-12), .176
  42. #42 Stanford (21-12, 12-9 Pac-12), .175
  43. #43 Memphis (23-9, 12-7 American), .168
  44. #44 Oklahoma State (21-12, 9-11 Big 12), .164
  45. #45 Green Bay (24-6, 14-3 Horizon), .164
  46. BIG EAST /#46 Providence (23-11, 13-8 Big East), .161
  47. #47 Louisiana Tech (27-7, 15-4 C-USA), .159
  48. #48 Arizona State (21-11, 10-9 Pac-12), .153
  49. #49 Kansas State (20-12, 10-9 Big 12), .151
  50. #50 Belmont (24-9, 15-3 OVC), .151
  51. MAC / #63 Western Michigan (23-9, 16-4 MAC), .130
  52. MAAC / #65 Manhattan (25-7, 18-5 MAAC), .130
  53. SUN BELT / #68 Georgia State (25-7, 18-1 Sun Belt), .122
  54. WAC / #70 New Mexico State (26-9, 14-4 WAC), .117
  55. CONFERENCE USA / #71 Tulsa (21-12, 16-3 C-USA), .115
  56. COLONIAL / #76 Delaware (25-9, 17-2 Colonial), .109
  57. ATLANTIC SUN / #84 Mercer (26-8, 17-4 Atlantic Sun), .100
  58. OHIO VALLEY / #91 Eastern Kentucky (24-9, 14-5 OVC), .089
  59. MEAC / #98 North Carolina Central (28-5, 18-1 MEAC), .079
  60. PATRIOT / #123 American (20-12, 16-5 Patriot), .048
  61. HORIZON / #130 Milwaukee (21-13, 11-9 Horizon), .042
  62. SOUTHERN / #147 Wofford (20-12, 14-5 Southern), .026
  63. BIG SKY / #153 Weber State (19-11, 16-6 Big Sky), .022
  64. BIG SOUTH / #165 Coastal Carolina (21-12, 14-5 Big South), .010
  65. AMERICA EAST / #187 Albany (18-14, 12-7 America East), -.011
  66. BIG WEST / #223 Cal Poly (13-19, 9-10 Big West), -.041
  67. NORTHEAST / #234 Mount St. Mary’s (16-16, 12-7 Northeast), -.050
  68. SWAC / #235 Texas Southern (19-14, 15-6 SWAC), -.052

#KPI NIT Tournament Field of 32 (as of Sunday, March 16, 7 a.m. ET): Automatic bids are awarded to teams who won their regular season conference title, but did not win their conference tournament.

  1. #51 Nebraska (19-12, 11-8 Big Ten), .151
  2. #52 Tennessee (21-12, 12-8 SEC), .149
  3. #53 N.C. State (21-13, 11-10 ACC), .148
  4. #54 California (19-13, 10-9 Pac-12), .147
  5. #55 Florida State (19-13, 10-10 ACC), .147
  6. #56 Iowa (20-12, 9-10 Big Ten), .146
  7. #57 Missouri (22-11, 10-10 SEC), .146
  8. #58 Xavier (21-12, 11-9 Big East), .141
  9. #59 Illinois (19-14, 8-12 Big Ten), .139
  10. #60 Minnesota (20-13, 9-11 Big Ten), .138
  11. #61 SMU (23-9, 12-7 American), .136
  12. #62 St. Mary’s-CA (22-11, 12-8 WCC), .130
  13. #64 Arkansas (21-11, 10-9 SEC), .130
  14. #66 St. John’s (20-12, 10-9 Big East), .129
  15. #67 Ohio (23-11, 13-8 MAC), .122
  16. #69 Middle Tennessee (24-9, 14-4 C-USA), .118
  17. #72 Clemson (20-12, 11-9 ACC), .113
  18. MAAC / #73 Iona (22-10, 19-4 MAAC), .113
  19. #74 Georgetown (17-14, 8-11 Big East), .113
  20. #75 San Francisco (21-11, 14-6 WCC), .111
  21. #77 Utah (21-11, 10-10 Pac-12), .108
  22. #78 Richmond (19-14, 9-9 A-10), .104
  23. #79 Georgia (19-13, 13-7 SEC), .103
  24. #80 Cleveland State (21-11, 12-5 Horizon), .103
  25. PATRIOT / #87 Boston U. (24-10, 17-4 Patriot), .095
  26. AMERICA EAST / #105 Vermont (22-10, 16-2 America East), .066
  27. BIG WEST / #110 UC-Irvine (23-11, 14-4 Big West), .062
  28. SOUTHERN / #126 Davidson (20-12, 16-2 Southern), .044
  29. ATLANTIC SUN / #149 Florida Gulf Coast (22-12, 16-5 Atlantic Sun), .025
  30. NORTHEAST / #150 Robert Morris (21-13, 16-3 Northeast), .024
  31. WAC / #159 Utah Valley (20-11, 14-4 WAC), .014
  32. BIG SOUTH / #163 High Point (16-14, 12-5 Big South), .010

Top 10 #KPI Wins – ROAD GAMES ONLY (through games of March 15, 2014)

  1. +1.07     #12 Creighton 96, #6 Villanova 68 (Jan 20)
  2. +0.97     #5 Wisconsin 48, #8 Virginia 38 (Dec 4)
  3. +0.96     #1 Arizona 69, #17 San Diego State 60 (Nov 14)
  4. +0.92     #43 Memphis 73, #15 Louisville 67 (Jan 9)
  5. +0.91     #115 Northwestern 65, #5 Wisconsin 56 (Jan 29)
  6. +0.91     #5 Wisconsin 75, #7 Michigan 62 (Feb 16)
  7. +0.91     #148 Yale 74, #34 Harvard 67 (Feb 8)
  8. +0.91     #125 Georgia Tech 67, #13 Syracuse 62 (Mar 4)
  9. +0.90     #70 New Mexico State 67, #10 New Mexico 61 (Dec 17)
  10. +0.90     #22 Cincinnati 69, #15 Louisville 66 (Jan 30)

Top 10 #KPI Wins - NEUTRAL SITE GAMES ONLY (through games of March 15, 2014)

  1. +0.76     #16 UCLA 75, #1 Arizona 71 (Mar 15)
  2. +0.76     #4 Kansas 80, #10 New Mexico 63 (Dec 14)
  3. +0.75     #58 Xavier 64, #22 Cincinnati 47 (Dec 14)
  4. +0.75     #21 Massachusetts 81, #10 New Mexico 65 (Nov 22)
  5. +0.74     #10 New Mexico 64, #17 San Diego State 58 (Mar 15)
  6. +0.73     #26 North Carolina 93, #15 Louisville 84 (Nov 24)
  7. +0.72     #131 Seton Hall 64, #4 Villanova 63 (Mar 13)
  8. +0.72     #55 Florida State 85, #14 VCU 67 (Nov 21)
  9. +0.71     #47 Louisiana Tech 88, #38 Southern Miss 70 (Mar 14)
  10. +0.71     #49 Kansas State 72, #24 Gonzaga 62 (Dec 21)

Top 10 #KPI Wins - HOME GAMES ONLY (through games of March 9, 2014)

  1. +0.71     #52 Tennessee 87, #8 Virginia 52 (Dec 30)
  2. +0.69     #5 Wisconsin 59, #2 Florida 53 (Nov 12)
  3. +0.69     #15 Louisville 69, #38 Southern Miss 38 (Nov 29)
  4. +0.68     #10 New Mexico 58, #17 San Diego State 44 (Feb 22)
  5. +0.68     #12 Creighton 101, #6 Villanova 80 (Feb 16)
  6. +0.67     #13 Syracuse 78, #6 Villanova 62
  7. +0.66     #28 Oregon 64, #1 Arizona 57 (Mar 8)
  8. +0.66     #25 Connecticut 65, #2 Florida 64 (Dec 2)
  9. +0.66     #31 Texas 72, #36 Stephen F. Austin 62 (Nov 15)
  10. +0.66     #8 Virginia 75, #13 Syracuse 56 (Mar 1)

Top 5 #KPI Outlier Games (through games of March 15, 2014)

  1. 0.95        #228 Boston College 62, #13 Syracuse 59 (Feb 19)
  2. 0.87        #318 Illinois-Chicago 80, #130 Milwaukee 58 (Feb 25)
  3. 0.85        #348 New Hampshire 73, #171 Stony Brook 69 (Feb 8)
  4. 0.84        #350 Non D-I/Metro State 83, #114 Canisius 69 (Nov 26)
  5. 0.81        #115 Northwestern 65, #5 Wisconsin 56 (Jan 29)

#KPI Numbers

  • The current adjustments are +0.15 for road teams, -0.16 for home teams and -0.04 for neutral site teams.  The average win is worth +0.20.  The average loss is worth -0.20.
  • Scoring (by conference, all games): 1-Big 12 (75.4 PPG); 2-Ohio Valley (74.5 PPG); 3-Big South (74.0 PPG); 4-Pac-12 (74.0 PPG); 5-WCC (73.9 PPG); 6-Big East (72.9 PPG); 7-MAAC (72.8 PPG); 8-Southland (72.8 PPG); 9-American (72.6 PPG); 10-Atlantic Sun (72.1 PPG)
  • Scoring (by conference, conference games and conference tournament games only): 1-Ohio Valley (75.4 PPG); 2-Big South (74.4 PPG); 3-MAAC (73.5 PPG); 4-Big 12 (73.1 PPG); 5-Southland (72.9 PPG); 6-Atlantic Sun (72.6 PPG); 7-Northeast (71.8 PPG); 8-WCC (71.0 PPG); 9-Big East (70.7 PPG); 10-Sun Belt (70.7 PPG)
  • Home teams are 3,518-1,691 (.675). There have been 587 games (10.1% of all games) played at a neutral site, including conference tournaments.  56.7% of all games are conference games or conference tournament games to date.
  • Non-Conference #KPI: 1-Wisconsin; 2-Arizona; 3-Wichita State; 4-Massachusetts; 5-Oregon; 6-Kansas; 7-Syracuse; 8-Ohio State; 9-Iowa State; 10-Villanova
  • Conference + Conference Tournament #KPI: 1-Florida; 2-Michigan; 3-Arizona; 4-Virginia; 5-Kansas; 6-Villanova; 7-UCLA; 8-Wichita State; 9-Louisville; 10-VCU
  • #KPI in Home Games Only: 1-Kansas; 2-Duke; 3-Florida; 4-Arizona; 5-VCU; 6-Creighton; 7-Kentucky; 8-Iowa State; 9-Colorado; 10-Villanova
  • #KPI in Road/Neutral Games Only: 1-Arizona; 2-Wisconsin; 3-Wichita State; 4-Florida; 5-Michigan; 6-Virginia; 7-Villanova; 8-Syracuse; 9-San Diego State; 10-Michigan State
  • #KPI Only in Top-25 Games: 1-Wichita State (1-0); 2-Arizona (4-1); 3-Charlotte (1-0); 4-Creighton (2-1); 5-Louisville (4-2); 6-Wisconsin (5-3); 7-Massachusetts (2-1); 8-Michigan (5-4); 9-Dayton (3-2); 10-North Carolina (4-3)
  • #KPI Only in Top-50 Games: 1-Wichita State (2-0); 2-East Tennessee State (1-0); 3-Northern Colorado (1-0); 4-Arizona (11-3); 5-Wisconsin (6-3); 6-Syracuse (6-2); 7-VCU (6-4); 8-Michigan (6-4); 9-Florida (4-2); 10-Milwaukee (2-2)
  • #KPI Only in Top-100 Games: 1-Wichita State (8-0); 2-Arizona (18-4); 3-Florida (16-2); 4-Villanova (14-3); 5-Syracuse (15-3); 6-Louisville (8-5); 7-San Diego State (10-3); 8-Wisconsin (17-6); 9-Michigan (17-3); 10-Gonzaga (10-4)
  • #KPI Strength of Schedule (with Home/Away adjustment): 1-Kansas (.128); 2-Wisconsin (.087); 3-Boston College (.087); 4-Michigan (.085); 5-Florida State (.083); 6-Iowa State (.079); 7-Texas Tech (.079); 8-Stanford (.076); 9-Northwestern (.075); 10-Michigan State (.074)
  • 7.6% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non-Division I teams.  Division I teams are 425-14 (.968) in those games by a margin of 90.2 PPG to 60.5 PPG.  Non-Division I games also count in the #KPI rankings.  All games against Non-Division I teams count as one opponent (currently No. 350 in the #KPI).

#KPI Games for Sunday, March 16:

  1. ACC Championship: #9 Duke vs. #8 Virginia (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  2. SEC Championship: #20 Kentucky vs. #2 Florida (Sunday 3:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  3. Big Ten Championship: #18 Michigan State vs. #7 Michigan (Sunday 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
  4. Atlantic 10 Championship: #35 Saint Joseph’s vs. #14 VCU (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS)
  5. Sun Belt Championship: #96 Louisiana-Lafayette vs. #68 Georgia State (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Notes on Rule ChangesNote that any discrepancy between #KPI and NCAA data is how games against Non Division-I schools are counted (approximately 3.8% of the data)

This is the #KPI

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WEEK 18 SATURDAY PM UPDATE #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 3/15/14, 8:30pm ET)

#KPI Headlines:

  • Full #KPI data (by team) as of Saturday 8:30 p.m. ET.
  • Partly due to the multitude of upsets in smaller conferences, Southern Miss, Toledo, Green Bay, Louisiana Tech and Belmont look better in the #KPI.
  • As a result, teams like Tennessee (numbers put them just out) are looking better.

#KPI NCAA Tournament Field of 68 (as of Saturday, March 15, 8:30 p.m. ET): Automatic bids from the 32 conferences are determined by the top remaining seed if the AQ has not already been decided.  This list is comprised purely by math with no scrubbing.

  1. #1 Arizona (30-4, 17-4 Pac-12), .363
  2. SEC / #2 Florida (31-2, 20-0 SEC), .341
  3. MVC / #3 Wichita State (34-0, 21-0 MVC), .322
  4. #4 Kansas (24-9, 15-5 Big 12), .316
  5. #5 Wisconsin (26-7, 13-7 Big Ten), .313
  6. #6 Villanova (28-4, 16-3 Big East), .297
  7. BIG TEN / #7 Michigan (25-7, 17-3 Big Ten), .287
  8. ACC / #8 Virginia (27-6, 18-2 ACC), .280
  9. BIG EAST / #9 Creighton (26-6, 16-4 Big East), .269
  10. #10 Duke (26-7, 15-5 ACC), .268
  11. MOUNTAIN WEST / #11 New Mexico (27-6, 18-3 Mountain West), .264
  12. #12 Syracuse (27-5, 14-5 ACC), .260
  13. ATLANTIC 10 / #13 VCU (26-7, 14-4 A-10), .258
  14. AMERICAN / #14 Louisville (29-5, 18-3 American), .255
  15. PAC-12 /#15 UCLA (26-8, 15-6 Pac-12), .254
  16. BIG 12 / #16 Iowa State (25-7, 13-7 Big 12), .254
  17. #17 San Diego State (29-4, 18-3 Mountain West), .250
  18. #18 Michigan State (25-8, 14-6 Big Ten), .242
  19. #19 Ohio State (25-9, 12-9 Big Ten), .233
  20. #20 Kentucky (24-9, 14-6 SEC), .230
  21. #21 Cincinnati (27-6, 16-4 American), .230
  22. #22 Massachusetts (24-8, 11-7 A-10), .229
  23. #23 Saint Louis (26-6, 13-4 A-10), .229
  24. WCC / #24 Gonzaga (28-6, 18-3 WCC), .227
  25. #25 Connecticut (26-8, 14-7 American), .224
  26. #26 North Carolina (23-9, 13-6 ACC), .220
  27. #27 Oklahoma (23-9, 12-7 Big 12), .216
  28. #28 Oregon (23-9, 11-9 Pac-12), .212
  29. #29 Baylor (24-10, 12-9 Big 12), .212
  30. #30 George Washington (24-8, 12-6 A-10), .205
  31. #31 Texas (23-10, 12-8 Big 12), .199
  32. SUMMIT / #32 North Dakota State (25-6, 14-2 Summit), .195
  33. #33 Pittsburgh (25-9, 13-8 ACC), .191
  34. #34 Saint Joseph’s (23-9, 13-5 A-10), .187
  35. IVY / #35 Harvard (26-4, 13-1 Ivy), .187
  36. #36 Dayton (23-10, 11-7 A-10), .186
  37. #37 Southern Miss (27-6, 14-4 C-USA), .184
  38. #38 BYU (23-11, 15-6 WCC), .178
  39. #39 Toledo (27-6, 15-5 MAC), .177
  40. SOUTHLAND / #40 Stephen F. Austin (30-2, 19-0 Southland), .177
  41. #41 Colorado (23-11, 12-9 Pac-12), .176
  42. #42 Stanford (21-12, 12-9 Pac-12), .175
  43. #43 Memphis (23-9, 12-7 American), .168
  44. #44 Oklahoma State (21-12, 9-11 Big 12), .164
  45. #45 Green Bay (24-6, 14-3 Horizon), .163
  46. #46 Louisiana Tech (27-7, 15-4 C-USA), .159
  47. #47 Arizona State (21-11, 10-9 Pac-12), .153
  48. #48 Belmont (24-9, 15-3 OVC), .152
  49. #49 Kansas State (20-12, 10-9 Big 12), .152
  50. #50 Nebraska (19-12, 11-8 Big Ten), .152
  51. MAC / #63 Western Michigan (23-9, 16-4 MAC), .130
  52. MAAC / #65 Manhattan (25-7, 18-5 MAAC), .129
  53. SUN BELT / #68 Georgia State (25-7, 18-1 Sun Belt), .122
  54. WAC / #70 New Mexico State (25-9, 14-4 WAC), .115
  55. CONFERENCE USA / #71 Tulsa (21-12, 16-3 C-USA), .115
  56. COLONIAL / #76 Delaware (25-9, 17-2 Colonial), .109
  57. ATLANTIC SUN / #83 Mercer (26-8, 17-4 Atlantic Sun), .100
  58. OHIO VALLEY / #91 Eastern Kentucky (24-9, 14-5 OVC), .089
  59. MEAC / #97 North Carolina Central (28-5, 18-1 MEAC), .079
  60. PATRIOT / #123 American (20-12, 16-5 Patriot), .048
  61. HORIZON / #130 Milwaukee (21-13, 11-9 Horizon), .042
  62. SOUTHERN / #147 Wofford (20-12, 14-5 Southern), .026
  63. BIG SKY / #155 Weber State (18-11, 15-6 Big Sky), .016
  64. BIG SOUTH / #165 Coastal Carolina (21-12, 14-5 Big South), .010
  65. AMERICA EAST / #186 Albany (18-14, 12-7 America East), -.012
  66. NORTHEAST / #234 Mount St. Mary’s (16-16, 12-7 Northeast), -.050
  67. SWAC / #235 Texas Southern (19-14, 15-6 SWAC), -.052
  68. BIG WEST / #237 Cal State-Northridge (17-17, 9-9 Big West), -.055

#KPI NIT Tournament Field of 32 (as of Saturday, March 15, 8:30 p.m. ET): Automatic bids are awarded to teams who won their regular season conference title, but did not win their conference tournament.

  1. #51 Tennessee (21-12, 12-8 SEC), .148
  2. #52 N.C. State (21-13, 11-10 ACC), .148
  3. #53 California (19-13, 10-9 Pac-12), .147
  4. #54 Florida State (19-13, 10-10 ACC), .147
  5. #55 Iowa (20-12, 9-10 Big Ten), .146
  6. #56 Providence (22-11, 12-8 Big East), .146
  7. #57 Missouri (22-11, 10-10 SEC), .145
  8. #58 Xavier (21-12, 11-9 Big East), .142
  9. #59 Illinois (19-14, 8-12 Big Ten), .138
  10. #60 Minnesota (20-13, 9-11 Big Ten), .138
  11. #61 SMU (23-9, 12-7 American), .137
  12. #62 St. Mary’s-CA (22-11, 12-8 WCC), .130
  13. #64 Arkansas (21-11, 10-9 SEC), .129
  14. #66 St. John’s (20-12, 10-9 Big East), .129
  15. #67 Ohio (23-11, 13-8 MAC), .122
  16. #69 Middle Tennessee (24-9, 14-4 C-USA), .118
  17. #72 Georgetown (17-14, 8-11 Big East), .113
  18. #73 Clemson (20-12, 11-9 ACC), .113
  19. MAAC / #74 Iona (22-10, 19-4 MAAC), .113
  20. #75 San Francisco (21-11, 14-6 WCC), .111
  21. #77 Utah (21-11, 10-10 Pac-12), .108
  22. #78 Richmond (19-14, 9-9 A-10), .103
  23. #79 Cleveland State (21-11, 12-5 Horizon), .103
  24. #80 Georgia (19-13, 13-7 SEC), .103
  25. PATRIOT / #87 Boston U. (24-10, 17-4 Patriot), .095
  26. AMERICA EAST / #106 Vermont (22-10, 16-2 America East), .066
  27. BIG WEST / #110 UC-Irvine (23-11, 14-4 Big West), .062
  28. SOUTHERN / #126 Davidson (20-12, 16-2 Southern), .044
  29. ATLANTIC SUN / #149 Florida Gulf Coast (22-12, 16-5 Atlantic Sun), .025
  30. NORTHEAST / #150 Robert Morris (21-13, 16-3 Northeast), .024
  31. WAC / #158 Utah Valley (20-11, 14-4 WAC), .015
  32. BIG SOUTH / #163 High Point (16-14, 12-5 Big South), .010

Notes on Rule ChangesNote that any discrepancy between #KPI and NCAA data is how games against Non Division-I schools are counted (approximately 3.8% of the data)

This is the #KPI

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WEEK 18 SATURDAY #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 3/15/14, 7am ET)

#KPI Headlines:

  • Full #KPI data (by team) as of Saturday 7 a.m. ET.
  • The top wins of Friday came from Louisiana Tech (beat Southern Miss, .72), N.C. State (beat Syracuse, .70), Iowa State (beat Kansas, .67), Connecticut (beat Cincinnati, .67) and St. Bonaventure (beat Saint Louis .67).
  • Possible bid stealers still exist in Conference USA (if Louisiana Tech loses), Atlantic 10 (if St. Bonaventure wins twice), ACC (if N.C. State wins one OR two), SEC (if Georgia wins twice), MAC (if Toledo loses) and the Big East (if Providence isn’t already in the field).
  • The #KPI missed one team in 2013.  The formula put Southern Miss ahead of Villanova (which did not hold true).  This year, Southern Miss (27-6) sits at No. 37 in the #KPI.  There is concern for No. 36 Toledo (if they don’t win the MAC) and No. 46 Green Bay (lost in Horizon semifinals).  Teams like No. 56 Iowa, No. 57 Providence, No. 58 Xavier and No. 60 SMU are not liked by the math as much as some.  I’m convinced one curve ball could come from this group.
  • Four teams have now won 30 or more games: No. 1 Arizona, No. 2 Florida, No. 4 Wichita State and No. 40 Stephen F. Austin.  Should SFA not get the AQ from the Southland (vs. Sam Houston State on Saturday), let’s talk…
  • In conference tournament action, home teams are 31-13 (.705).  215 of 259 conference tournament games have been played at neutral sites.
  • The 4OT game between Arkansas-Little Rock and Arkansas State in the Sun Belt quarterfinals was the first conference tournament to go to four or more overtimes since the Syracuse-Connecticut 6OT game on March 12, 2009.  The 230 combined points was the third highest total of any game this year (Holy Cross 122, Sacred Heart 118, 2OT on Nov. 13; Southeast Missouri State 118, Murray State 115, 2OT on Mar. 1).
  • Through Friday’s conference tournament games, teams are averaging 65.4 Poss/G, 1.046 Pts/Poss, 23.4-53.9 FG (43.4%), 6.1-18.0 3pt (34.0%), 15.4-22.1 FT (70.0%), 33.7 rebounds, 11.4 assists, 5.8 steals, 3.4 blocks, 11.7 turnovers, 18.9 PFs and 68.4 PPG with an average margin of 10.7 PPG.

#KPI NCAA Tournament Field of 68 (as of Saturday, March 15, 7 a.m. ET): Automatic bids from the 32 conferences are determined by the top remaining seed if the AQ has not already been decided.  This list is comprised purely by math with no scrubbing. Conference tournament brackets are linked below.

  1. PAC-12 / #1 Arizona (30-3, 17-3 Pac-12), .374 / Best Win: at San Diego State .98
  2. SEC / #2 Florida (30-2, 19-0 SEC), .338 / Best Win: at Kentucky .81
  3. #3 Wisconsin (26-6, 13-6 Big Ten), .323 / Best Win: at Virginia .96
  4. MVC / #4 Wichita State (34-0, 21-0 MVC), .322 / Best Win: at Saint Louis .86
  5. #5 Kansas (24-9, 15-5 Big 12), .316 / Best Win: at Iowa State .84
  6. #6 Villanova (28-4, 16-3 Big East), .297 / Best Win: at Saint Joseph’s .84
  7. BIG TEN / #7 Michigan (24-7, 16-3 Big Ten), .278 / Best Win: at Wisconsin .92
  8. ACC / #8 Virginia (26-6, 17-2 ACC), .272 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .78
  9. BIG EAST / #9 Creighton (26-6, 16-4 Big East), .269 / Best Win: at Villanova 1.07
  10. #10 Duke (25-7, 14-5 ACC), .263 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .83
  11. #11 Syracuse (27-5, 14-5 ACC), .263 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .77
  12. MOUNTAIN WEST / #12 San Diego State (29-3, 18-2 Mountain West), .258 / Best Win: at Kansas .84
  13. BIG 12 / #13 Iowa State (25-7, 13-7 Big 12), .253 / Best Win: at BYU .69
  14. #14 New Mexico (26-6, 17-3 Mountain West), .250 / Best Win: at New Mexico State .75
  15. ATLANTIC 10 / #15 VCU (25-7, 13-4 A-10), .247 / Best Win: at Virginia .88
  16. AMERICAN / #16 Louisville (28-5, 17-3 American), .244 / Best Win: at Connecticut .87
  17. #17 Ohio State (25-8, 12-8 Big Ten), .242 / Best Win: at Wisconsin .88
  18. #18 UCLA (25-8, 14-6 Pac-12), .238 / Best Win: at Colorado .75
  19. #19 Connecticut (26-7, 14-6 American), .232 / Best Win: at Memphis .83
  20. #20 Cincinnati (27-6, 16-4 American), .232 / Best Win: at Louisville .90
  21. #21 Massachusetts (24-8, 11-7 A-10), .231 / Best Win: at George Washington .81
  22. #22 Saint Louis (26-6, 13-4 A-10), .230 / Best Win: at Saint Joseph’s .81
  23. #23 Michigan State (24-8, 13-6 Big Ten), .228 / Best Win: at Texas .75
  24. WCC / #24 Gonzaga (28-6, 18-3 WCC), .228 / Best Win: at St. Mary’s-CA .78
  25. #25 Kentucky (23-9, 13-6 SEC), .224 / Best Win: at Missouri .66
  26. #26 North Carolina (23-9, 13-6 ACC), .221 / Best Win: at Michigan State .84
  27. #27 Oklahoma (23-9, 12-7 Big 12), .215 / Best Win: at Baylor .72
  28. #28 George Washington (24-7, 12-5 A-10), .214 / Best Win: at Manhattan .78
  29. #29 Oregon (23-9, 11-9 Pac-12), .212 / Best Win: at UCLA .80
  30. #30 Baylor (24-10, 12-9 Big 12), .211 / Best Win: at Oklahoma State .66
  31. #31 Pittsburgh (25-8, 13-7 ACC), .198 / Best Win: at N.C. State .67
  32. #32 Texas (23-10, 12-8 Big 12), .198 / Best Win: at Baylor .78
  33. SUMMIT / #33 North Dakota State (25-6, 14-2 Summit), .195 / Best Win: at Western Michigan .70
  34. #34 Dayton (23-10, 11-7 A-10), .187 / Best Win: at Saint Louis .86
  35. IVY / #35 Harvard (26-4, 13-1 Ivy), .187 / Best Win: at Boston U. .71
  36. #36 Toledo (27-5, 15-4 MAC), .186 / Best Win: at Akron .61
  37. #37 Southern Miss (27-6, 14-4 C-USA), .184 / Best Win: at North Dakota State .81
  38. #38 Saint Joseph’s (22-9, 12-5 A-10), .182 / Best Win: at Dayton .71
  39. #39 BYU (23-11, 15-6 WCC), .179 / Best Win: at Stanford .66
  40. SOUTHLAND / #40 Stephen F. Austin (30-2, 19-0 Southland), .177 / Best Win: at Sam Houston State .68
  41. #41 Colorado (23-11, 12-9 Pac-12), .177 / Best Win: at Stanford .65
  42. #42 Stanford (21-12, 12-9 Pac-12), .174 / Best Win: at Connecticut .82
  43. #43 Memphis (23-9, 12-7 American), .168 / Best Win: at Louisville .91
  44. CONFERENCE USA / #44 Louisiana Tech (27-6, 15-3 C-USA), .166 / Best Win: at Oklahoma .75
  45. #45 Oklahoma State (21-12, 9-11 Big 12), .165 / Best Win: vs. Louisiana Tech .70
  46. #46 Green Bay (24-6, 14-3 Horizon), .162 / Best Win: at Cleveland State .68
  47. #47 N.C. State (21-12, 11-9 ACC), .155 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .79
  48. #48 Tennessee (21-11, 12-7 SEC), .154 / Best Win: vs. Virginia .70
  49. #49 Arizona State (21-11, 10-9 Pac-12), .153 / Best Win: vs. Arizona .66
  50. #50 Nebraska (19-12, 11-8 Big Ten), .153 / Best Win: at Michigan State .83
  51. #51 Kansas State (20-12, 10-9 Big 12), .152 / Best Win: vs. Gonzaga .71
  52. MAAC / #64 Manhattan (25-7, 18-5 MAAC), .130 / Best Win: at Canisius .56
  53. WAC / #68 New Mexico State (25-9, 14-4 WAC), .115 / Best Win: at New Mexico .89
  54. SUN BELT / #69 Georgia State (24-7, 17-1 Sun Belt), .114 / Best Win: at Western Kentucky .64
  55. MAC / #73 Western Michigan (22-9, 15-4 MAC), .112 / Best Win: at Ohio .67
  56. COLONIAL / #75 Delaware (25-9, 17-2 Colonial), .109 / Best Win: at William & Mary .56
  57. ATLANTIC SUN / #84 Mercer (26-8, 17-4 Atlantic Sun), .100 / Best Win: at Florida Gulf Coast .53
  58. OHIO VALLEY / #92 Eastern Kentucky (24-9, 14-5 OVC), .089 / Best Win: at IPFW .69
  59. MEAC / #98 North Carolina Central (27-5, 17-1 MEAC), .068 / Best Win: at N.C. State .65
  60. PATRIOT / #123 American (20-12, 16-5 Patriot), .048 / Best Win: at Boston U. .80
  61. HORIZON / #131 Milwaukee (21-13, 11-9 Horizon), .041 / Best Win: at Green Bay .83
  62. SOUTHERN / #147 Wofford (20-12, 14-5 Southern), .026 / Best Win: vs. Winthrop .48
  63. BIG SKY / #155 Weber State (18-11, 15-6 Big Sky), .016 / Best Win: North Dakota .35
  64. AMERICA EAST / #165 Stony Brook (23-9, 15-3 America East), .011 / Best Win: vs. Vermont .39
  65. BIG SOUTH / #166 Coastal Carolina (21-12, 14-5 Big South), .009 / Best Win: at Radford .47
  66. NORTHEAST / #234 Mount St. Mary’s (16-16, 12-7 Northeast), -.051 / Best Win: at Robert Morris .56
  67. BIG WEST / #236 Cal State-Northridge (17-17, 9-9 Big West), -.055 / Best Win: vs. UC-Santa Barbara .64
  68. SWAC / #238 Texas Southern (18-14, 14-6 SWAC), -.056 / Best Win; at Southern U. .46

#KPI NIT Tournament Field of 32 (as of Saturday, March 15, 7 a.m. ET): Automatic bids are awarded to teams who won their regular season conference title, but did not win their conference tournament.

  1. OHIO VALLEY / #52 Belmont (24-9, 15-3 OVC), .151 / Best Win: at Middle Tennessee .76
  2. #53 California (19-13, 10-9 Pac-12), .148 / Best Win: at Oregon .79
  3. #54 Florida State (19-13, 10-10 ACC), .148 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .78
  4. #55 Missouri (22-11, 10-10 SEC), .147 / Best Win: at N.C. State .63
  5. #56 Iowa (20-12, 9-10 Big Ten), .147 / Best Win: at Ohio State .82
  6. #57 Providence (22-11, 12-8 Big East), .146 / Best Win: vs. Creighton .61
  7. #58 Xavier (21-12, 11-9 Big East), .143 / Best Win: vs. Cincinnati .76
  8. #59 Minnesota (20-13, 9-11 Big Ten), .139 / Best Win: vs. Wisconsin .62
  9. #60 SMU (23-9, 12-7 American), .138 / Best Win: at Connecticut .87
  10. #61 Illinois (19-14, 8-12 Big Ten), .138 / Best Win: at Michigan State .82
  11. #62 St. Mary’s-CA (22-11, 12-8 WCC), .131 / Best Win: at Boise State .57
  12. #63 Arkansas (21-11, 10-9 SEC), .130 / Best Win: at Kentucky .77
  13. #65 St. John’s (20-12, 10-9 Big East), .129 / Best Win: at Providence .68
  14. #66 Ohio (23-11, 13-8 MAC), .123 / Best Win: at Akron .63
  15. #67 Middle Tennessee (24-9, 14-4 C-USA), .118 / Best Win: vs. Southern Miss .59
  16. #70 Clemson (20-12, 11-9 ACC), .119 / Best Win: vs. Duke .59
  17. MAAC / #71 Iona (22-10, 19-4 MAAC), .113 / Best Win: at Florida Gulf Coast .56
  18. #72 Georgetown (17-14, 8-11 Big East), .113 / Best Win: vs. VCU .65
  19. #74 San Francisco (21-11, 14-6 WCC), .111 / Best Win: vs. St. Mary’s-CA .42
  20. #76 Georgia (19-12, 13-6 SEC), .108 / Best Win: at Missouri .66
  21. #77 Utah (21-11, 10-10 Pac-12), .107 / Best Win: at California .56
  22. #78 Richmond (19-14, 9-9 A-10), .104 / Best Win: at William & Mary .55
  23. #79 LSU (19-13, 10-10 SEC), .103 / Best Win: vs. Saint Joseph’s .61
  24. #80 Cleveland State (21-11, 12-5 Horizon), .102 / Best Win: at Milwaukee .62
  25. PATRIOT / #89 Boston U. (24-10, 17-4 Patriot), .094 / Best Win: vs. UC-Irvine .61
  26. AMERICA EAST / #107 Vermont (22-10, 16-2 America East), .064 / Best Win: vs. Yale .42
  27. BIG WEST / #110 UC-Irvine (23-11, 14-4 Big West), .062 / Best Win: at Hawaii .50
  28. SOUTHERN / #126 Davidson (20-12, 16-2 Southern), .045 / Best Win: at Wofford .56
  29. ATLANTIC SUN / #148 Florida Gulf Coast (22-12, 16-5 Atlantic Sun), .025 / Best Win: at Mercer .49
  30. NORTHEAST / #150 Robert Morris (21-13, 16-3 Northeast), .024 / Best Win: vs. St. Francis-NY .46
  31. WAC / #159 Utah Valley (20-11, 14-4 WAC), .014 / Best Win: vs. New Mexico State .46
  32. BIG SOUTH / #164 High Point (16-14, 12-5 Big South), .011 / Best Win: at William & Mary .55

#KPI Top Games for Saturday, March 15:

  1. #18 UCLA vs. #1 Arizona (Saturday 6 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1)
  2. #17 Ohio State vs. #7 Michigan (Saturday 1:40 p.m. ET, CBS)
  3. #23 Michigan State vs. #3 Wisconsin (Saturday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS)
  4. #14 New Mexico vs. #12 San Diego State (Saturday 6 p.m. ET, CBS)
  5. #19 Connecticut vs. #16 Louisville (Saturday 6 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  6. #31 Pittsburgh vs. #8 Virginia (Saturday 1 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  7. #28 George Washington vs. #15 VCU (Saturday 4 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network)
  8. #30 Baylor vs. #13 Iowa State (Saturday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  9. #48 Tennessee vs. #2 Florida (Saturday 1 p.m. ET, ABC)
  10. #47 North Carolina State vs. #10 Duke (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Notes on Rule ChangesNote that any discrepancy between #KPI and NCAA data is how games against Non Division-I schools are counted (approximately 3.8% of the data)

This is the #KPI

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WEEK 18 FRIDAY #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 3/14/14, 10am ET)

#KPI Headlines:

  • Full #KPI data (by team) as of Friday 10 a.m. ET
  • By math, the current No. 1 seeds are Arizona, Florida, Kansas and Wichita State.  Wisconsin is .002 behind that group (a small margin).  By math, Villanova is locked into the No. 2 seed line.  Michigan, Syracuse and Virginia are close behind.
  • The best win of the day went to UConn (.82 at Memphis) partly because it was a true road game.  Other top wins included Seton Hall (.73 vs. Villanova), UCLA (.65 vs. Oregon), Southern Miss (.65 at UTEP, also a true road game), Cal Poly (.62 vs. UC-Santa Barbara) and Baylor (.59 vs. Oklahoma).
  • The cut line is still in a state of flux, mostly over the Conference USA and MAC automatic qualifiers and any “bid stealers” that still may be forthcoming.  Teams just outside the mathematical cut line who are done playing can move back into the field as teams just inside the cut line lose.  Remember, all 36 at-large teams will end their season with a loss.

#KPI NCAA Tournament Field of 68 (as of March 14, 10 a.m. ET): Automatic bids from the 32 conferences are determined by the top remaining seed if the AQ has not already been decided.  This list is comprised purely by math with no scrubbing. Conference tournament brackets are linked below.

  1. PAC-12 / #1 Arizona (29-3, 16-3 Pac-12), .369 / Best Win: at San Diego State .98
  2. SEC / #2 Florida (29-2, 18-0 SEC), .334 / Best Win: at Kentucky .80
  3. BIG 12 / #3 Kansas (24-8, 15-4 Big 12), .326 / Best Win: at Iowa State .84
  4. MVC / #4 Wichita State (34-0, 21-0 MVC), .321 / Best Win: at Saint Louis .90
  5. #5 Wisconsin (25-6, 12-6 Big Ten), .319 / Best Win: at Virginia .94
  6. #6 Villanova (28-4, 16-3 Big East), .299 / Best Win: at Saint Joseph’s .81
  7. BIG TEN / #7 Michigan (23-7, 15-3 Big Ten), .282 / Best Win: at Wisconsin .91
  8. #8 Syracuse (27-4, 14-4 ACC), .275 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .76
  9. ACC / #9 Virginia (25-6, 16-2 ACC), .268 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .77
  10. BIG EAST / #10 Creighton (25-6, 15-4 Big East), .265 / Best Win: at Villanova 1.07
  11. #11 Duke (24-7, 13-5 ACC), .259 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .82
  12. MOUNTAIN WEST / #12 San Diego State (27-3, 16-2 Mountain West), .251 / Best Win: at Kansas .86
  13. #13 New Mexico (25-6, 16-3 Mountain West), .246 / Best Win: at New Mexico State .74
  14. #14 VCU (24-7, 12-4 A-10), .244 / Best Win: at Virginia .87
  15. ATLANTIC 10 / #15 Saint Louis (26-5, 13-3 A-10), .243 / Best Win: at Massachusetts .81
  16. #16 Louisville (27-5, 16-3 American), .243 / Best Win: at Cincinnati .87
  17. #17 Iowa State (24-7, 12-7 Big 12), .243 / Best Win: at BYU .69
  18. #18 Massachusetts (24-7, 11-6 A-10), .241 / Best Win: at George Washington .80
  19. AMERICAN / #19 Cincinnati (27-5, 16-3 American), .241 / Best Win: at Louisville .89
  20. #20 Ohio State (24-8, 11-8 Big Ten), .237 / Best Win: at Wisconsin .87
  21. #21 Michigan State (23-8, 12-6 Big Ten), .232 / Best Win: at Texas .77
  22. #22 UCLA (24-8, 13-6 Pac-12), .230 / Best Win: at Colorado .76
  23. #23 North Carolina (23-8, 13-5 ACC), .228 / Best Win: at Michigan State .85
  24. WCC / #24 Gonzaga (28-6, 18-3 WCC), .228 / Best Win: at St. Mary’s-CA .78
  25. #25 Kentucky (22-9, 12-6 SEC), .221 / Best Win: at Missouri .68
  26. #26 Connecticut (25-7, 13-6 American), .220 / Best Win: at Memphis .82
  27. #27 Oklahoma (23-9, 12-7 Big 12), .215 / Best Win: at Texas .73
  28. #28 Oregon (23-9, 11-9 Pac-12), .214 / Best Win: at UCLA .79
  29. #29 Texas (23-9, 12-7 Big 12), .207 / Best Win: at North Carolina .77
  30. #30 Baylor (23-10, 11-9 Big 12), .202 / Best Win: at Oklahoma State .66
  31. #31 George Washington (23-7, 11-5 A-10), .199 / Best Win: at Manhattan .78
  32. #32 Dayton (23-9, 11-6 A-10), .197 / Best Win: at Saint Louis .90
  33. SUMMIT / #33 North Dakota State (25-6, 14-2 Summit), .194 / Best Win: at Western Michigan .67
  34. #34 Southern Miss (27-5, 14-3 C-USA), .191 / Best Win: at North Dakota State .82
  35. IVY / #35 Harvard (26-4, 13-1 Ivy), .187 / Best Win: at Boston U. .71
  36. #36 Pittsburgh (24-8, 12-7 ACC), .187 / Best Win: at N.C. State .63
  37. #37 Colorado (23-10, 12-8 Pac-12), .182 / Best Win: at Stanford .68
  38. #38 Stanford (21-11, 12-8 Pac-12), .180 / Best Win: at Connecticut .81
  39. #39 BYU (23-11, 15-6 WCC), .179 / Best Win: at Stanford .69
  40. #40 Toledo (26-5, 14-4 MAC), .177 / Best Win: at Akron .64
  41. #41 Saint Joseph’s (21-9, 11-5 A-10), .172 / Best Win: at Dayton .73
  42. SOUTHLAND / #42 Stephen F. Austin (29-2, 18-0 Southland), .171 / Best Win: at Sam Houston State .66
  43. #43 Memphis (23-9, 12-7 American), .170 / Best Win: at Louisville .91
  44. #44 Oklahoma State (21-12, 9-11 Big 12), .168 / Best Win: vs. Louisiana Tech .69
  45. #45 Green Bay (24-6, 14-3 Horizon), .160 / Best Win: at Cleveland State .67
  46. #46 Nebraska (19-11, 11-7 Big Ten), .160 / Best Win: at Michigan State .83
  47. #47 Arizona State (21-11, 10-9 Pac-12), .157 / Best Win: vs. Arizona .65
  48. #48 Kansas State (20-12, 10-9 Big 12), .156 / Best Win: vs. Gonzaga .71
  49. #49 Tennessee (20-11, 11-7 SEC), .155 / Best Win: vs. Virginia .68
  50. #50 Florida State (19-12, 10-9 ACC), .149 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .77
  51. CONFERENCE USA / #55 Louisiana Tech (26-6, 14-3 C-USA), .149 / Best Win: at Oklahoma .75
  52. MAAC / #65 Manhattan (25-7, 18-5 MAAC), .129 / Best Win: at Canisius .55
  53. SUN BELT / #70 Georgia State (24-7, 17-1 Sun Belt), .114 / Best Win: at Western Kentucky .63
  54. COLONIAL / #76 Delaware (25-9, 17-2 Colonial), .108 / Best Win: at William & Mary .55
  55. MAC / #80 Western Michigan (21-9, 14-4 MAC), .103 / Best Win: at Ohio .67
  56. ATLANTIC SUN / #83 Mercer (26-8, 17-4 Atlantic Sun), .100 / Best Win: at Florida Gulf Coast .53
  57. OHIO VALLEY / #90 Eastern Kentucky (24-9, 14-5 OVC), .089 / Best Win: at IPFW .69
  58. BIG WEST / #99 UC-Irvine (23-10, 14-3 Big West), .074 / Best Win: at Hawaii .50
  59. MEAC / #104 North Carolina Central (26-5, 16-1 MEAC), .068 / Best Win: at N.C. State .61
  60. PATRIOT / #125 American (20-12, 16-5 Patriot), .047 / Best Win: at Boston U. .79
  61. HORIZON / #133 Milwaukee (21-13, 11-9 Horizon), .041 / Best Win: at Green Bay .82
  62. SOUTHERN / #147 Wofford (20-12, 14-5 Southern), .026 / Best Win: vs. Winthrop .48
  63. WAC / #152 Utah Valley (20-10, 14-3 WAC), .024 / Best Win: New Mexico State .45
  64. AMERICA EAST / #162 Stony Brook (23-9, 15-3 America East), .010 / Best Win: vs. Vermont .39
  65. BIG SOUTH / #163 Coastal Carolina (21-12, 14-5 Big South), .009 / Best Win: at Radford .46
  66. BIG SKY / #165 Weber State (17-11, 14-6 Big Sky), .009 / Best Win: North Dakota .32
  67. NORTHEAST / #232 Mount St. Mary’s (16-16, 12-7 Northeast), -.051 / Best Win: at Robert Morris .55
  68. SWAC / #250 Texas Southern (17-14, 13-6 SWAC), -.065 / Best Win; at Southern U. .46

#KPI NIT Tournament Field of 32 (as of March 14, 10 a.m. ET): Automatic bids are awarded to teams who won their regular season conference title, but did not win their conference tournament.

  1. OHIO VALLEY / #51 Belmont (24-9, 15-3 OVC), .153 / Best Win: at Middle Tennessee .80
  2. #52 California (19-13, 10-9 Pac-12), .151 / Best Win: at Oregon .79
  3. #53 Missouri (22-10, 10-9 SEC), .151 / Best Win: at Arkansas .61
  4. #54 Iowa (20-12, 9-10 Big Ten), .151 / Best Win: at Ohio State .82
  5. #56 Xavier (21-11, 11-8 Big East), .149 / Best Win: vs. Cincinnati .79
  6. #57 Illinois (19-13, 8-11 Big Ten), .147 / Best Win: at Michigan State .83
  7. #58 Minnesota (20-12, 9-10 Big Ten), .146 / Best Win: vs. Wisconsin .62
  8. #59 Providence (21-11, 11-8 Big East), .145 / Best Win: vs. Creighton .60
  9. #60 N.C. State (20-12, 10-9 ACC), .139 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .78
  10. #61 SMU (23-9, 12-7 American), .139 / Best Win: at Connecticut .86
  11. #62 Arkansas (21-11, 10-9 SEC), .132 / Best Win: at Kentucky .76
  12. #63 St. Mary’s-CA (22-11, 12-8 WCC), .132 / Best Win: at Boise State .60
  13. #64 St. John’s (20-12, 10-9 Big East), .130 / Best Win: at Providence .67
  14. #66 Middle Tennessee (24-8, 14-3 C-USA), .126 / Best Win: vs. Southern Miss .62
  15. #67 Ohio (23-11, 13-8 MAC), .124 / Best Win: at Akron .66
  16. #68 Clemson (20-11, 11-8 ACC), .119 / Best Win: at Florida State .62
  17. #69 Georgetown (17-14, 8-11 Big East), .115 / Best Win: vs. VCU .65
  18. #71 New Mexico State (24-9, 13-4 WAC), .113 / Best Win: at New Mexico .88
  19. MAAC / #72 Iona (22-10, 19-4 MAAC), .111 / Best Win: at Florida Gulf Coast .55
  20. #73 San Francisco (21-11, 14-6 WCC), .110 / Best Win: vs. St. Mary’s-CA .42
  21. #74 Richmond (19-13, 9-8 A-10), .109 / Best Win: at William & Mary .54
  22. #75 Utah (21-11, 10-10 Pac-12), .108 / Best Win: at California .56
  23. #77 LSU (19-12, 10-9 SEC), .108 / Best Win: vs. Saint Joseph’s .59
  24. #78 Akron (21-11, 13-6 MAC), .108 / Best Win: at Cleveland State .66
  25. #79 Georgia (18-12, 12-6 SEC), .104 / Best Win: at Missouri .69
  26. #81 Cleveland State (21-11, 12-5 Horizon), .102 / Best Win: at Milwaukee .61
  27. PATRIOT / #88 Boston U. (24-10, 17-4 Patriot), .096 / Best Win: vs. UC-Irvine .66
  28. AMERICA EAST / #111 Vermont (22-10, 16-2 America East), .062 / Best Win: vs. Yale .41
  29. SOUTHERN / #127 Davidson (20-12, 16-2 Southern), .044 / Best Win: at Wofford .56
  30. NORTHEAST / #149 Robert Morris (21-13, 16-3 Northeast), .024 / Best Win: vs. St. Francis-NY .46
  31. ATLANTIC SUN / #151 Florida Gulf Coast (22-12, 16-5 Atlantic Sun), .024 / Best Win: at Mercer .49
  32. BIG SOUTH / #166 High Point (16-14, 12-5 Big South), .009 / Best Win: at William & Mary .54

#KPI Top Games for Friday, March 14:

  1. #17 Iowa State vs. #3 Kansas (Friday 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
  2. #37 Colorado vs. #1 Arizona (Friday 9 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
  3. #26 Connecticut vs. #19 Cincinnati (Friday 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  4. #18 Massachusetts vs. #31 George Washington (Friday 9 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network)
  5. #53 Missouri vs. #2 Florida (Friday 1 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
  6. #50 Florida State vs. #9 Virginia (Friday 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  7. #36 Pittsburgh vs. #23 North Carolina (Friday 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  8. #30 Baylor vs. #29 Texas (Friday 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
  9. #38 Stanford vs. #22 UCLA (Friday 11:30 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1)
  10. #58 Minnesota vs. #5 Wisconsin (Friday 6:30 p.m. ET, BTN)

Notes on Rule ChangesNote that any discrepancy between #KPI and NCAA data is how games against Non Division-I schools are counted (approximately 3.8% of the data)

This is the #KPI

Posted in #KPI, #KPI Update | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,