WEEK 13 #KPI FOOTBALL (as of 11/24/13)

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Welcome to Week 13 of the #KPI.  There was major reshuffling toward the top of the leaderboard.

#KPI Football Top 25 (November 24, 2013)

  1. Florida State (11-0, 8-0 ACC), .385 (LW: 1)  No. 1 ranked conference KPI
  2. Alabama (11-0, 7-0 SEC), .354 (LW: 2)  4 wins against KPI top-25 is nation’s best
  3. Arizona State (9-2, 7-1 Pac-12), .308 (LW: 8)  SOS is No. 4, Non-Conf OWP is No. 8
  4. Missouri (10-1, 6-1 SEC), .307 (LW: 6)  Only .001 behind ASU, 1 of 3 teams with 5 or more road wins
  5. Oklahoma State (10-1, 7-1 Big 12), .292 (LW: 14)  Loss at WVU is the largest FBS vs. FBS outlier game
  6. Baylor (9-1, 6-1 Big 12), .283 (LW: 4)  Leads nation in PPG (56.8 PPG)
  7. Stanford (9-2, 7-2 Pac-12), .281 (LW: 3)  Will play Arizona State in Pac-12 Championship Game (game at ASU if ASU wins Saturday)
  8. Auburn (10-1, 6-1 SEC), .278 (LW: 5)  #FutureKPI projects Auburn into the top-3 with a win over Alabama Saturday
  9. Ohio State (11-0, 7-0 Big Ten), .275 (LW: 7)  SOS hurt by missing the top three Legends Division teams in standings
  10. South Carolina (9-2, 6-2 SEC), .246 (LW: 10)  Has the No. 1 ranked KPI in non-conference games only
  11. Wisconsin (9-2, 6-1 Big Ten), .235 (LW: 20)  Would be No. 4 KPI if they had kicked game-winning field goal at ASU.
  12. Virginia Tech (7-4, 4-3 ACC), .234 (LW: 15) No. 1 ranked non-conference OWP
  13. Clemson (10-1, 7-1 ACC), .231 (LW: 9)  Winner of Clemson-South Carolina will finish in top-10
  14. Michigan State (10-1, 7-0 Big Ten), .227 (LW: 13)  No. 4 ranked KPI in conference games only
  15. Notre Dame (8-3), .220 (LW: 22)  3-0 record against the KPI top-20
  16. Oregon (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12), .213 (LW: 11)  No. 1 easiest conference SOS relative to conference strength
  17. Northern Illinois (11-0, 7-0 MAC), .210 (LW: 26)  Lead nation with 7-0 record in true road games
  18. Central Florida (9-1, 6-0 American), .203 (LW: 12)  1 of 3 teams with 5 or more road wins
  19. LSU (8-3, 4-3 SEC), .202 (LW: 29)  Moved up ten spots with win over Texas A&M
  20. USC (9-3, 6-2 Pac-12), .192 (LW: 19)
  21. Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2 Big 12), .186 (LW: 27)
  22. UCLA (8-3, 5-3 Pac-12), .185 (LW: 16)
  23. Duke (9-2, 5-2 ACC), .176 (LW: 28)
  24. Texas A&M (8-3, 4-3 SEC), .167 (LW: 18)
  25. Mississippi (7-4, 3-4 SEC), .165 (LW: 23)
  26. Georgia Tech (7-4, 5-3 ACC), .165 (LW: 24)
  27. Georgia (7-4, 5-3 SEC), .163 (LW: 21)
  28. BYU (7-4), .162 (LW: 17)
  29. Fresno State (10-0, 7-0 Mountain West), .162 (LW: 25)
  30. Washington (7-4, 4-4 Pac-12), .144 (LW: 35)
  31. Arizona (7-4, 4-4 Pac-12), .130 (LW: 56)
  32. Miami-FL (8-3, 4-3 ACC), .125 (LW: 34)
  33. Texas (7-3, 6-1 Big 12), .123 (LW: 33)
  34. Iowa (7-4, 4-3 Big Ten), .123 (LW: 37)
  35. Louisville (10-1, 6-1 American), .123 (LW: 30)
  36. Michigan (7-4, 3-4 Big Ten), .114 (LW: 31)
  37. Houston (7-4, 4-3 American), .112 (LW: 32)
  38. Minnesota (8-3, 4-3 Big Ten), .104 (LW: 36)
  39. East Carolina (9-2, 6-1 Conference USA), .098 (LW: 46)
  40. Nebraska (8-3, 5-2 Big Ten), .097 (LW: 42)

#KPI News

  • Arizona State (No. 3), Missouri (No. 4) and Oklahoma State (No. 5) moved into the top-5.
  • There are now five undefeated teams: #1 Florida State, #2 Alabama, #9 Ohio State, #17 Northern Illinois and #29 Fresno State.  Only 13 teams remain with one or fewer losses (7 are in the top-9 of the #KPI).
  • Florida State and Alabama continue to control their own destiny for the championship game.  Ohio State can get to No. 3 in the #KPI with two wins (at Michigan, vs. Michigan State) and will get a major SOS bump from the championship game.  Just like in the BCS, they are likely next in line though they are ranked so low right now.
  • Remember that field goal attempt at the end of Wisconsin-Arizona State on September 14? Yeah, it actually had a significant impact. If Wisconsin had made that field goal, they would be No. 4 and Arizona State would be No. 10.  The value of Ohio State’s win over Wisconsin would have increased.
  • Alabama, Stanford and Notre Dame each have 3 wins against #KPI top-25 teams.  Arizona State, Georgia, LSU, Pittsburgh and South Carolina each have 2 wins against #KPI top-25 teams.
  • The #KPI and the polls are lining up closer and closer as we near the end of the season.  Fresno State, Louisville and Cincinnati (coaches poll only) are the only ranked teams not in the #KPI top-25.  #KPI like Virginia Tech and Notre Dame instead.
  • MCSOS by KPI (Missed Conference Strength of Schedule) in order of easiest to most difficult: 1-South Carolina, 2-Oregon, 3-Nebraska, 4-Florida, 5-Colorado, 6-USC, 7-Vanderbilt, 8-Missouri, 9-California, 10-Oregon State
  • #1 Florida State has clinched a spot in the ACC Championship game.  They will face Duke if they beat UNC on Saturday.
  • The Big Ten Championship game is set between #14 Michigan State and #9 Ohio State
  • #3 Arizona State and #7 Stanford will face off in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  The site of the game is still to be determined.
  • The winner of #2 Alabama/#8 Auburn will face #4 Missouri (if they beat Texas A&M) or #10 South Carolina in the SEC Championship game.

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 20.7 points per game. (Week 1: 22.9 PPG; Week 2: 24.8 PPG; Week 3: 20.1 PPG; Week 4: 25.4 PPG; Week 5: 19.4 PPG; Week 6: 18.0 PPG, Week 7: 14.9 PPG, Week 8: 19.1 PPG, Week 9: 20.0 PPG, Week 10: 18.6 PPG, Week 11: 19.9 PPG, Week 12: 20.1 PPG, Week 13: 22.6 PPG).
  • The average margin of victory in non-conference games is +24.7 PPG. The margin in conference games is +17.8 PPG.
  • The current adjustments are +0.09 for road teams, -0.10 for home teams and -0.05 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • The Pac-12 is the highest scoring conference (33.8 PPG). The Mountain West is second (32.2 PPG) and the SEC is third (32.0 PPG).
  • The ACC is allowing the fewest points (24.0 PPG). The SEC is second (24.4 PPG) and the Big Ten is third (24.9 PPG).
  • Arizona (+25), Texas-San Antonio (+17), Navy (+14), Cincinnati (+14) and San Diego State (+12) made the largest jumps in the #KPI this week.  Ohio (-17), Florida (-16), Syracuse (-14), Arkansas (-12) and North Texas (-12) fell the furthest in this week’s #KPI.
  • The top outlier games of the year (based on expected results) are (1) Eastern Illinois 40, San Diego State 19, (2) West Virginia 30, Oklahoma State 21, (3) North Dakota State 24, Kansas State 21, (4) South Florida 26, Cincinnati 20 and (5) Arkansas 34, Louisiana-Lafayette 14

TOP 20 #KPI WINS

  1. +1.26     10/19     #1 Florida State 51, #13 Clemson 14
  2. +0.97     9/14       #26 Georgia Tech 38, #23 Duke 14
  3. +0.96     11/23     #5 Oklahoma State 49, #6 Baylor 17
  4. +0.89     10/26     #10 South Carolina 27, #4 Missouri 24 (2 OT)
  5. +0.79     11/7       #6 Baylor 41, #21 Oklahoma 12
  6. +0.79     9/21       #19 LSU 35, #8 Auburn 21
  7. +0.79     9/28       #10 South Carolina 28, #18 Central Florida 25
  8. +0.76     11/16     #5 Oklahoma State 38, #33 Texas 13
  9. +0.76     9/28       #21 Oklahoma 35, #15 Notre Dame 21
  10. +0.76     11/23     #31 Arizona 42, #16 Oregon 16
  11. +0.76     9/28       #34 Iowa 23, #38 Minnesota 7
  12. +0.75     9/28       #90 West Virginia 30, #5 Oklahoma State 21
  13. +0.75     9/7         #41 Washington State 10, #20 USC 7
  14. +0.73     10/18     #18 Central Florida 38, #35 Louisville 35
  15. +0.73     11/23     #11 Wisconsin 20, #38 Minnesota 7
  16. +0.72     8/31       #2 Alabama 35, #12 Virginia Tech 10
  17. +0.72     9/14       #12 Virginia Tech 15, #39 East Carolina 10
  18. +0.72     11/9       #12 Virginia Tech 42, #32 Miami-FL 24
  19. +0.72     10/12     #33 Texas 36, #21 Oklahoma 20
  20. +0.71     9/28       #2 Alabama 25, #25 Mississippi 0

Bold Indicates Home Team, Italics Indicate Neutral Site

CONFERENCE KPI RANKINGS

  1. SEC (95-59, .617 / 44-8, .846 non-conference) .127 KPI
  2. Pac-12 (79-55, .590 / 30-6, .833 non-conference) .114 KPI
  3. ACC (91-63, .591 / 40-12, .769 non-conference) .092 KPI
  4. Big Ten (79-53, .598 / 37-11, .771 non-conference) .086 KPI
  5. Big 12 (61-47, .565 / 22-8, .733 non-conference) .045 KPI
  6. American (52-52, .500 / 20-20, .500 non-conference)  -.053 KPI
  7. Mountain West (62-70, .470 / 19-27, .413 non-conference) -.086 KPI
  8. Sun Belt (42-44, .488 / 19-21, .475 non-conference) -.091 KPI
  9. MAC (66-78, .458 / 20-32, .385 non-conference) -.101 KPI
  10. Conference USA (69-85, .448 / 20-36, .357 non-conference) -.112 KPI

TOP UPCOMING KPI GAMES – WEEK 14

  1. #2 Alabama at #8 Auburn (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
  2. #15 Notre Dame at #7 Stanford (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, FOX)
  3. #13 Clemson at #10 South Carolina (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  4. #24 Texas A&M at #4 Missouri (Saturday 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  5. #31 Arizona at #3 Arizona State (Saturday 9:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
  6. #22 UCLA at #20 USC (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, ABC)
  7. #9 Ohio State at #36 Michigan (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ABC)
  8. #38 Minnesota at #14 Michigan State (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, BTN)
  9. #27 Georgia at #26 Georgia Tech (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
  10. #23 Duke at #44 North Carolina (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Updated data is linked below in PDF form:

#KPI by Team (through Week 13): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-team-week-13.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through Week 13): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-conference-week-13.pdf

#KPI Results/TV Schedule (through Week 13): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-game-week-13.pdf

This is the #KPI.

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