WEEK 15 #KPI FOOTBALL (as of 12/8/13) – FINAL

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Welcome to Week 15 of the #KPI.  Thank you so much for caring about these numbers each week.  The interest has been quite humbling.  Stay with me all winter as #KPI Basketball data will continue to be updated.

Technically, this is not final.  The Army-Navy game next Saturday will make this final and could influence Stanford-Auburn, South Carolina-Missouri and Notre Dame-LSU at the top depending on the result.  Regardless, here goes on Week 15 of the #KPI:

#KPI Football Top 40 (through games of December 7, 2013)

  1. Florida State (13-0, 8-0 ACC), .400 (LW: 1)
  2. Stanford (11-2, 7-2 Pac-12), .346 (LW: 7)
  3. Auburn (12-1, 7-1 SEC), .340 (LW: 4)
  4. Alabama (11-1, 7-1 SEC), .311 (LW: 2)
  5. Michigan State (12-1, 8-0 Big Ten), .295 (LW: 11)
  6. Baylor (11-1, 8-1 Big 12), .289 (LW: 10)
  7. Missouri (11-2, 7-1 SEC), .286 (LW: 3)
  8. South Carolina (10-2, 6-2 SEC), .286 (LW: 8)
  9. Arizona State (10-3, 8-1 Pac-12), .280 (LW: 5)
  10. Oklahoma State (10-2, 7-2 Big 12), .264 (LW: 6)
  11. Ohio State (12-1, 8-0 Big Ten), .260 (LW: 9)
  12. Oklahoma (10-2, 7-2 Big 12), .238 (LW: 22)
  13. UCLA (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12), .230 (LW: 12)
  14. Oregon (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12), .215 (LW: 13)
  15. Clemson (10-2, 7-1 ACC), .207 (LW: 15)
  16. Central Florida (11-1, 8-0 American), .206 (LW: 17)
  17. Wisconsin (9-3, 6-2 Big Ten), .203 (LW: 16)
  18. Virginia Tech (8-4, 5-3 ACC), .202 (LW: 14)
  19. Georgia (8-4, 5-3 SEC), .199 (LW: 18)
  20. Notre Dame (8-4), .190 (LW: 20)
  21. LSU (9-3, 5-3 SEC), .188 (LW: 21)
  22. Northern Illinois (12-1, 8-0 MAC), .176 (LW: 19)
  23. Louisville (11-1, 7-1 American), .167 (LW: 33)
  24. BYU (8-4), .162 (LW: 24)
  25. Duke (10-3, 6-2 ACC), .161 (LW: 23)
  26. USC (9-4, 6-3 Pac-12), .160 (LW: 25)
  27. Texas A&M (8-4, 4-4 SEC), .157 (LW: 27)
  28. Iowa (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten), .154 (LW: 26)
  29. Washington (8-4, 5-4 Pac-12), .149 (LW: 28)
  30. Fresno State (11-1, 7-1 Mountain West), .139 (LW: 36)
  31. Georgia Tech (7-5, 5-3 ACC), .136 (LW: 30)
  32. Miami-FL (9-3, 5-3 ACC), .129 (LW: 32)
  33. Mississippi (7-5, 3-5 SEC), .129 (LW: 31)
  34. Texas (8-4, 7-2 Big 12), .129 (LW: 29)
  35. Houston (8-4, 5-3 American), .126 (LW: 35)
  36. Arizona (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12), .122 (LW: 34)
  37. Bowling Green (10-3, 7-1 MAC), .114 (LW: 52)
  38. Michigan (7-5, 3-5 Big Ten), .111 (LW: 37)
  39. Minnesota (8-4, 4-4 Big Ten), .106 (LW: 38)
  40. Rice (10-3, 7-1 Conference USA), .100 (LW: 48)

#KPI News

  • Florida State finishes No. 1 in the #KPI.  They held the No. 1 spot in the #KPI every week from Week 6 (October 6 posting) to the end of the season.
  • The difference between Stanford and Auburn is .006.  Their strengths of schedule were virtually identical (Stanford No. 10, Auburn No. 12).  Auburn played 8 home games to Stanford’s 7.  Stanford had 4 wins worth +.60 or more (+1.01 at Arizona State; +.68 vs UCLA; +.63 vs Arizona State; +.62 vs Oregon) while Auburn only had two (+.73 vs Missouri; +.73 vs Alabama).  Stanford went 5-0 against the #KPI top-25 while no other team won more than three.  Stanford’s two wins over Arizona State were from the only repeat matchup all season.
  • Alabama was the only team in the top-6 not to win a conference championship.
  • Michigan State moved to No. 5 and currently holds a win streak against every Big Ten school.
  • Baylor clinched a spot in the Fiesta Bowl with the Oklahoma State loss and Baylor win Saturday.  Baylor leads the nation in points per game (53.3 PPG).
  • #KPI Strength of Schedule: (1) Arizona State; (2) Utah; (3) Mississippi State; (4) Tennessee; (5) California; (6) Purdue; (7) Georgia; (8) Florida; (9) Virginia; (10) Stanford
  • Florida State was the only undefeated team when all was said and done.  There were nine teams with 1-loss ranging between No. 3 and No. 30 in the #KPI.  Four of those teams had final SOS numbers greater than No. 100 (UCF, Northern Illinois, Louisville, Fresno State).
  • Always back to the Wisconsin-Arizona State finish … if Wisconsin had attempted and made that field goal, Auburn would have finished No. 2 and Stanford No. 3 in the #KPI.
  • Utah (#KPI No. 47); Indiana (#KPI No. 56) and Tennessee (#KPI No. 59) were the highest ranked #KPI teams to finish under .500.  All finished 5-7 and had a SOS in the top-11.
  • Strength of Schedule (by conference): 1-Pac-12 (.072); 2-SEC (.066); 3-Big Ten (.036); 4-ACC (.030); 5-Big 12 (.009).  34% of SEC opponents were in the #KPI top-25. 31% of Pac-12 opponents were in the #KPI top-25.
  • The Big Ten and ACC tied for the best record in true road games at .500 (ACC 35-35, Big Ten 28-28).  The American (26-29, .473) finished third.
  • Home teams finished 493-300 (.622), road teams finished 300-493 (.378) and there were 19 neutral site games played.
  • 3 of the top-10 #KPI games of the year occurred in a conference championship game (SEC, Pac-12, Big Ten): (1) Alabama-Auburn; (2) Missouri-Auburn; (3) Stanford-Arizona State I; (4) Stanford-Arizona State II; (t-5) UCLA-Stanford; (t-5) South Carolina-Missouri; (t-7) Ohio State-Michigan State; (t-7); Florida State-Clemson; (t-7): Oregon-Stanford; (t-7): Baylor-Oklahoma State.  3 were televised by ABC, 2 each by CBS, FOX and ESPN and 1 was televised by ESPN2.  All were conference matchups.

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 20.3 points per game. (Week 1: 22.9 PPG; Week 2: 24.8 PPG; Week 3: 20.1 PPG; Week 4: 25.4 PPG; Week 5: 19.4 PPG; Week 6: 18.0 PPG, Week 7: 14.9 PPG, Week 8: 19.1 PPG, Week 9: 20.0 PPG, Week 10: 18.6 PPG, Week 11: 19.9 PPG, Week 12: 20.1 PPG, Week 13: 22.6 PPG, Week 14: 15.4 PPG, Week 15: 18.2 PPG).
  • The average margin of victory in non-conference games is +24.3 PPG. The margin in conference games is +17.7 PPG.
  • The current adjustments are +0.09 for road teams, -0.11 for home teams and -0.09 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • Margin By Conference (Conference Games Only): 1-Sun Belt (12.9); 2-American (14.3); 3-SEC (15.1); 4-Mountain West (16.7); 5-Big Ten (17.1); 6-ACC (18.5); 7-Big 12 (18.6); 8-Pac-12 (19.6); 9-Conference USA (19.5); 10-MAC (21.5)
  • Points Per Game By Conference (All Games): 1-Pac-12 (33.3); 2-Mountain West (32.3); 3-Big 12 (31.7); 4-SEC (31.6); 5-Big Ten (30.9); 6-ACC (30.0); 7-Sun Belt (27.9); 8-American (26.8); 9-Conference USA (26.5); 10-MAC (25.6)
  • Points Allowed By Conference (All Games): 1-ACC (24.3); 2-SEC (24.7); 3-American (24.8); 4-Big Ten (25.5); 5-Big 12 (26.9); 6-Pac-12 (27.8); 7-MAC (28.8); 8-Conference USA (29.0); 9-Sun Belt (29.2); 10-Mountain West (32.4)
  • Bowling Green (+15), South Alabama (+12), Oklahoma (+10), Louisville (+10) and Rice (+8) made the largest jumps in the #KPI this week.  Marshall (-9), Louisiana-Lafayette (-8), Memphis (-6) and Texas (-5) fell the furthest in this week’s #KPI.

TOP 25 #KPI WINS (through games of December 7, 2013)

  1. +1.16     10/19     #1 Florida State 51, #15 Clemson 14
  2. +1.01     12/7       #2 Stanford 38, #9 Arizona State 14 (Pac-12 Championship)
  3. +0.98     11/23     #10 Oklahoma State 49, #6 Baylor 17
  4. +0.92     9/14       #31 Georgia Tech 38, #25 Duke 14
  5. +0.88     12/7       #12 Oklahoma 33, #10 Oklahoma State 24
  6. +0.85     9/21       #21 LSU 35, #3 Auburn 21
  7. +0.84     11/7       #6 Baylor 41, #12 Oklahoma 12
  8. +0.84     10/26     #8 South Carolina 27, #7 Missouri 24 (2 OT)
  9. +0.83     12/7       #1 Florida State 45, #25 Duke 7 (ACC Championship)
  10. +0.82     11/30     #13 UCLA 35, #26 USC 14
  11. +0.82     9/28       #8 South Carolina 28, #16 Central Florida 25
  12. +0.81     10/18     #16 Central Florida 38, #23 Louisville 35
  13. +0.81     11/2       #17 Wisconsin 28, #28 Iowa 9
  14. +0.79     11/23     #36 Arizona 42, #14 Oregon 16
  15. +0.78     11/9       #18 Virginia Tech 42, #32 Miami-FL 24
  16. +0.78     12/7       #5 Michigan State 34, #11 Ohio State 24 (Big Ten Championship)
  17. +0.75     11/16     #10 Oklahoma State 38, #34 Texas 13
  18. +0.74     9/21       #20 Notre Dame 17, #5 Michigan State 13
  19. +0.74     11/30     #45 Penn State 31, #17 Wisconsin 24
  20. +0.73     9/14       #56 Indiana 42, #37 Bowling Green 10
  21. +0.73     12/6       #37 Bowling Green 47, #22 Northern Illinois 27 (MAC Championship)
  22. +0.73     11/30     #8 South Carolina 31, #15 Clemson 17
  23. +0.73     10/12     #14 Oregon 45, #29 Washington 24
  24. +0.73     9/28       #28 Iowa 23, #39 Minnesota 7
  25. +0.73     12/7       #3 Auburn 59, #7 Missouri 42 (SEC Championship)

Bold Indicates Home Team, Italics Indicate Neutral Site

TOP 10 #KPI OUTLIER GAMES (through games of December 7, 2013)

  1. 9/28       #97 West Virginia 30, #10 Oklahoma State 21
  2. 8/31       #110 FCS/Eastern Illinois 40, #86 San Diego State 19
  3. 8/30       #110 FCS/North Dakota State 24, #63 Kansas State 21
  4. 11/30     #123 Southern Miss 62, #111 UAB 27
  5. 10/5       #114 South Florida 26, #65 Cincinnati 20
  6. 11/19     #90 Kent State 44, #77 Ohio 13
  7. 8/31       #110 FCS/Eastern Washington 49, #70 Oregon State 46
  8. 10/12     #47 Utah 27, #2 Stanford 21
  9. 9/21       #105 Memphis 31, #74 Arkansas State 7
  10. 9/14       #56 Indiana 42, #37 Bowling Green 10

Bold Indicates Home Team, Italics Indicate Neutral Site

CONFERENCE KPI RANKINGS (through games of December 7, 2013)

  1. SEC (104-66, .612 / 47-9, .839 non-conference) .131 KPI
  2. Pac-12 (86-61, .585 / 31-6, .838 non-conference) .117 KPI
  3. Big Ten (86-60, .589 / 37-11, .771 non-conference) .093 KPI
  4. ACC (98-72, .576 / 41-15, .732 non-conference) .081 KPI
  5. Big 12 (67-53, .558 / 22-8, .733 non-conference) .044 KPI
  6. American (60-60, .500 / 20-20, .500 non-conference)  -.059 KPI
  7. Mountain West (69-77, .473 / 20-28, .417 non-conference) -.077 KPI
  8. MAC (73-85, .462 / 20-32, .385 non-conference) -.084 KPI
  9. Sun Belt (47-49, .490 / 19-21, .475 non-conference) -.089 KPI
  10. Conference USA (77-93, .453 / 20-36, .357 non-conference) -.098 KPI

Updated data is linked below in PDF form:

#KPI by Team (through Week 15): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-team-week-15.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through Week 15): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-conference-week-15.pdf

#KPI Results/TV Schedule (through Week 15): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-game-week-15.pdf

This is the #KPI.

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