WEEK 5 #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 12/16/13)

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Welcome to Week 5 of the basketball version of the #KPI.

The NCAA released early numbers through games of December 8, 2013 last week.  Much of their interpretation of the data matches what has been found here over the first part of the season with one difference: Per Possession Data.

A clear chain reaction progression has developed to help explain the statistical differences from last year to this year.  More fouls are being called (up 2.2 fouls per team per game, 12.4% increase overall, 7.5% increase per possession).  This is leading to more free throws (up 3.4 FTA per team per game, 17.1% increase overall, 11.9% increase per possession).  More fouls and free throws are leading to shorter possessions and hence more possessions (up 3.1 possessions per team per game, 4.6% increase). The average length of possession has decreased from 17.99 seconds to 17.20 seconds this year. The increase in possessions is critical to the rest of the analysis.

Made field goals are up 5.4% (FG% is up from 43.3% to 44.0%), but up only 0.8% per possession.  3-pt field goal makes and attempts per possession are down 1.6% and 1.3% respectively.  Points per possession are up 2.8%.  Turnovers are down 6.0% per possession and steals are down 8.2% per possession, clearly identifying that more plays that were last year turnovers/steals are now being called fouls.  Ken Pomeroy analyzed the difference in steals and turnovers last week.

Also of note, the NCAA computes their total data slightly different than has been calculated here.  The NCAA includes data from all Division I teams, including games against Non-Division I competition, but only includes data from the Division I team in said games.  The #KPI includes data for both teams in matchups between Division I and Non-Division I teams.  The difference is slight but relevant.  17.0% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non-Division I teams.  Division I teams are 304-12 (.962) in those games by a margin of 89.4 PPG to 61.3 PPG.  Non-Division I games also count in the #KPI rankings.  All games against Non-Division I teams count as one opponent (currently No. 346 in the #KPI).

Raw statistical data by day, week and margin through games of Sunday, December 15 can be found here: http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/college-basketball-statistical-trends-through-12-15-2013.pdf

#KPI by Team (through Week 5): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-team-week-5.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through Week 5): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-conference-week-5.pdf

#KPI by Game (through Week 5): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-game-week-5.pdf

Data below compares the full season data from 2012-13 to full season data to date for the 2013-14 season (through Sunday, December 15):

#KPI Notes:

  • Due to final exams, Week 6 (199 games) was the lowest number of games played in any week this season.
  • 21.1% of games have been decided by 5 points or less, 20.7% of games by 6-10 points, 30.3% of games decided by 11-20 points and 27.9% decided by more than 20 points.
  • Teams are averaging 20.3 fouls and 23.9 free throw attempts in games decided by 5 points or less.  Teams are averaging 18.9 fouls and 21.7 free throw attempts in games decided by more than 20 points.  Closer games mean more fouls and more free throws.
  • Winning teams are averaging 80.5 points, 27.7-56.9 FG (48.6%), 6.8-17.9 3-pt (38.0%), 18.4-26.2 FT (70.3%), 38.9 rebounds, 15.0 assists, 7.1 steals, 4.4 blocks, 12.2 turnovres and 18.4 fouls per game.
  • Losing teams are averaging 64.6 points, 22.6-57.2 FG (39.5%), 5.9-19.5 3-pt (30.2%), 13.6-20.1 FT (67.5%), 32.5 rebounds, 10.9 assists, 5.8 steals, 2.9 blocks, 14.0 turnovers and 21.3 fouls per game.

Points Per Game: Up 7.5% (5.1 PPG); from 67.5 PPG to 72.6 PPG: Through the first 38 days of the 2012-13 season, teams were averaging 67.5 PPG (an 7.5% increase this year compared to this date last year). In 2012-13, 52.3% of points came from made 2-pt FGs, 27.4% from made 3-pt FGs and 20.3% from made free throws.  In 2013-14, 51.7% of points have come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.2% from made 3-pt FGs and 22.0% from made free throws.  The net increase is +2.24 points from made 2′s, +0.54 points from made 3′s and +2.29 points from made free throws.  72.6 PPG is the highest average since 1994-95 (74.2 PPG).  Points Per Possession have increased at a rate of 2.8%.  Scoring has trended downward nearly every week so far (Week 1: 73.1 PPG; Week 2: 74.1 PPG; Week 3: 73.1 PPG; Week 4: 72.1 PPG; Week 5: 71.0 PPG; Week 6: 71.2 PPG).  The 5.1 PPG increase in scoring is the largest year to year scoring increase since 1952-53 (+5.8 PPG), larger than the +3.4 PPG scoring increase in 1986-87 coinciding with the introduction of the 3-pt line.

Average Margin Per Game: +16.9 PPG: The average margin in 2012-13 was +13.1 PPG, but was +15.7 PPG through the same period last season.

Possessions Per Game: Up 4.6% (3.1 possession per game); from 66.7 to 69.8 possessions per game per team.  The increase in possessions speaks for the increase in all field goal-related increases.

Field Goal Attempts: Up 3.7% (2.0 FGA per game); from 55.0 to 57.0 FGA: Team field goal percentage is at 44.0%, up from 43.3% last year.  Field goals made are up 5.4%.  Field goal attempts per possession are down slightly (0.825 FGA per possession in 2012-13 to 0.818 FGA per possession this year) while field goals made per possession are up 0.8%.  Field goal attempts are at their highest mark since 2001-02 (57.23 FGA/game).

3-pt Field Goal Attempts: Up 3.2% (0.58 3-ptA per game); from 18.1 to 18.7 3-ptA: 3-pt field goal percentage is at 34.0% down slightly from 34.1% last year.  3-pt field goal attempts are at their highest number since an all-time in 2007-08 (19.1 per game).

Free Throw Attempts: Up 17.1% (3.37 FTA per game); from 19.8 to 23.1 FTA: Team free throw percentage is at 69.1% (69.3% last year).  Teams are making 2.29 more free throws per game this year.  Free throw attempts are at their highest mark since 1993-94 (23.2 FTA/game).  Free throw attempts per possession are up 11.9%.  The average FTA has hovered between 22.2-22.5 per week after averaging 24.7, 24.0 and 23.3 the first three weeks of the season.

Rebounds: Up 3.4% (1.2 rebounds per game); from 34.5 to 35.7 rebounds: Rebounds per possession are down 1.2%.  Slightly more possessions are ending without a rebound because slightly more field goals are being made and free throw makes are more likely than field goal makes.

Assists: Up 1.0% (0.13 assists per game); from 12.8 to 12.9 assists: Assists per possession are down 3.4% partly because an assist is not attached to a made free throw.

Turnovers: Down 1.7% (0.23 turnovers per game); 13.3 to 13.1 turnovers: Turnovers per possession are down 6.0% while steals per possession are down 8.2%.  More plays that used to be steals/turnovers are being called fouls.

Personal Fouls: Up 12.7% (2.2 fouls per game); 17.68 to 19.86 fouls: Personal fouls are at their highest mark since 2001-02 (also 19.92 fouls per game).  Fouls per possession are up 7.2%.  Total fouls called have trended downward all six weeks this season (21.2, 20.5, 19.9, 19.3, 19.2, 19.1).

Comparative analysis includes data from all games involving Division-I teams for the 2013-14 season.  Historical data is courtesy of the NCAA and can be found here.

#KPI Basketball Top 50 (through games of December 15, 2013)

  1. Wisconsin (12-0, 0-0 Big Ten), .412
  2. Massachusetts (9-0, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .390
  3. Syracuse (10-0, 0-0 ACC), .368
  4. Oregon (9-0, 0-0 Pac-12), .355
  5. Arizona (11-0, 0-0 Pac-12), .346
  6. St. Mary’s-CA (8-0, 0-0 WCC), .338
  7. Oklahoma State (9-1, 0-0 Big 12), .326
  8. North Carolina (7-2, 0-0 ACC), .299
  9. Wichita State (10-0, 0-0 MVC), .298
  10. Villanova (10-0, 0-0 Big East), .297
  11. Baylor (8-1, 0-0 Big 12), .291
  12. Ohio State (10-0, 0-0 Big Ten), .281
  13. Kansas (7-3, 0-0 Big 12), .279
  14. Colorado (10-1, 0-0 Pac-12), .269
  15. Iowa State (8-0, 0-0 Big 12), .268
  16. Connecticut (9-0, 0-0 American), .258
  17. George Washington (9-1, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .252
  18. Michigan State (8-1, 0-0 Big Ten), .242
  19. Gonzaga (10-1, 0-0 WCC), .241
  20. Dayton (8-2, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .239
  21. Pittsburgh (10-0, 0-0 ACC), .237
  22. New Mexico (7-2, 0-0 Mountain West), .228
  23. Harvard (9-1, 0-0 Ivy), .227
  24. Pacific (8-1, 0-0 WCC), .225
  25. Memphis (7-1, 0-0 American), .222
  26. Missouri (10-0, 0-0 SEC), .221
  27. Princeton (8-1, 0-0 Ivy), .220
  28. Arkansas (7-2, 0-0 SEC), .215
  29. San Diego State (7-1, 0-0 Mountain West), .212
  30. Belmont (8-3, 0-0 OVC), .208
  31. Texas (9-1, 0-0 Big 12), .204
  32. Southern Miss (9-1, 0-0 Conference USA), .200
  33. VCU (8-3, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .199
  34. Iowa (10-2, 0-0 Big Ten), .192
  35. Toledo (9-0, 0-0 MAC), .191
  36. BYU (8-4, 0-0 WCC), .186
  37. Florida (7-2, 0-0 SEC), .184
  38. LSU (6-2, 0-0 SEC), .181
  39. UCLA (9-1, 0-0 Pac-12), .180
  40. Manhattan (7-2, 2-0 MAAC), .178
  41. Mississippi (7-2, 0-0 SEC), .178
  42. Utah State (6-2, 0-0 Mountain West), .178
  43. Bucknell (5-4, 0-0 Patriot), .170
  44. Virginia (7-3, 0-0 ACC), .170
  45. North Dakota State (7-4, 0-0 Summit), .168
  46. Minnesota (9-2, 0-0 Big Ten), .164
  47. Creighton (7-2, 0-0 Big East), .163
  48. Butler (8-2, 0-0 Big East), .161
  49. Oklahoma (9-1, 0-0 Big 12), .159
  50. UC-Santa Barbara (5-3, 0-0 Big West), .159

Conference #KPI Rankings (through games of December 15, 2013)

  1. Big 12 (77-20, .794) .169 KPI
  2. Pac-12 (94-23, .803) .155 KPI
  3. Big Ten (100-29, .775) .150 KPI
  4. ACC (108-41, .725)  .127 KPI
  5. Big East (72-26, .735) .127 KPI
  6. Atlantic 10 (87-40, .685) .108 KPI
  7. SEC (85-35, .708) .107 KPI
  8. American (67-27, .713) .082 KPI
  9. WCC (70-32, .686) .073 KPI
  10. Mountain West (65-40, .619) .063 KPI
  11. Missouri Valley (59-37, .615) .050 KPI
  12. MAC (60-40, .600) .022 KPI
  13. Horizon (49-49, .500) .011 KPI
  14. Summit (44-42, .512) .000 KPI
  15. Ivy (40-34, .541) -.002 KPI
  16. Conference USA (92-69, .571) -.011 KPI
  17. Sun Belt (43-46, .483) -.012 KPI
  18. Patriot (46-45, .505) -.015 KPI
  19. Colonial (42-48, .467) -.021 KPI
  20. Big West (38-49, .437) -.037 KPI
  21. WAC (44-51, .463) -.043 KPI
  22. Big South (53-62, .461) -.052 KPI
  23. Ohio Valley (58-71, .450) -.054 KPI
  24. Big Sky (35-50, .412) -.057 KPI
  25. Southland (54-75, .419) -.063 KPI
  26. MAAC (46-61, 430) -.064 KPI
  27. SWAC (25-60, .294) -.070 KPI
  28. Atlantic Sun (38-60, .388) -.073 KPI
  29. Northeast (38-67, .362) -.078 KPI
  30. MEAC (43-87, .331) -.104 KPI
  31. Southern (44-72, .379) -.118 KPI
  32. America East (28-64, .304) -.119 KPI

Top 25 #KPI Wins (through games of December 15, 2013)

  1. +0.97     12/4       #8 North Carolina 79, #18 Michigan State 65
  2. +0.97     11/14     #5 Arizona 69, #29 San Diego State 60
  3. +0.88     11/17     #30 Belmont 83, #8 North Carolina 80
  4. +0.87     11/16     #17 George Washington 80, #40 Manhattan 74
  5. +0.85     11/26     #89 Fordham 79, #40 Manhattan 75
  6. +0.85     12/1       #9 Wichita State 70, #66 Saint Louis 65
  7. +0.85     12/8       #4 Oregon 115, #41 Mississippi 105 (OT)
  8. +0.82     12/1       #3 VCU 81, #30 Belmont 68
  9. +0.80     12/14     #6 St. Mary’s-CA 82, #67 Boise State 74
  10. +0.80     11/16     #46 Minnesota 74, #58 Richmond 59
  11. +0.79     12/7       #24 Pacific 78, #42 Utah State 68
  12. +0.78     11/19     #74 DePaul 80, #102 Milwaukee 71
  13. +0.78     11/8       #11 Baylor 72, #14 Colorado 60
  14. +0.77     12/4       #1 Wisconsin 48, #44 Virginia 38
  15. +0.76     12/4       #57 Louisiana-Lafayette 89, #80 Louisiana Tech 80
  16. +0.75     11/11     #36 BYU 112, #65 Stanford 103
  17. +0.74     11/16     #42 Utah State 71, #50 UC-Santa Barbara 64
  18. +0.74     11/27     #3 Syracuse 74, #11 Baylor 67
  19. +0.74     12/1       #25 Memphis 73, #7 Oklahoma State 68
  20. +0.73     11/18     #32 Southern Miss 70, #45 North Dakota State 69
  21. +0.73     11/29     #79 Marquette 76, #17 George Washington 60
  22. +0.72     12/14     #60 New Mexico State 81, #69 Drake 69
  23. +0.71     11/12     #33 VCU 59, #44 Virginia 56
  24. +0.70     11/25     #20 Dayton 84, #19 Gonzaga 79
  25. +0.70     11/25     #7 Oklahoma State 93, #77 South Florida 67

Bold Indicates Home Team, Italics Indicate Neutral Site

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 15.9 points per game.  That margin is 16.9 points per game in home/away games, 10.7 points per game in neutral site games.  The margin was +16.2 PPG in Week 6 (Dec 9-15), the largest margin since Week 2 (Nov 11-17)
  • The current adjustments are +0.20 for road teams, -0.21 for home teams and -0.07 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • The average win is worth +0.15.  The average loss is worth -0.17.
  • Scoring (by conference): 1-Pac-12 (80.3 PPG); 2-WCC (79.8 PPG); 3-Big 12 (78.8 PPG); 4-Big Ten (77.6 PPG); 5-American (77.3 PPG); 6-SEC (76.4 PPG); 7-Big East (75.9 PPG); 8-Mountain West (75.9 PPG); 9-ACC (75.8 PPG); 10-Horizon (75.6 PPG)
  • Points Against (by conference): 1-Big Ten (65.3 PPG); 2-ACC (65.8 PPG); 3-Big East (65.9 PPG); 4-SEC (67.2 PPG); 5-American (67.3 PPG); 6-Big 12 (67.4 PPG); 7-Atlantic 10 (68.3 PPG); 8-Pac-12 (68.6 PPG); 9-Ivy (68.8 PPG); 10-Missouri Valley (69.1 PPG)
  • Points Per Possession (by conference): 1-Pac-12 (1.153); 2-Big Ten (1.132); 3-WCC (1.130); 4-Big 12 (1.121); 5-American (1.114); 6-ACC (1.112); 7-Mountain West (1.105); 8-SEC (1.102); 9-Big East (1.098); 10-Missouri Valley (1.076)
  • Home teams are 1209-367 (.767).  There have been 286 games (15.4% of all games) played at a neutral site.  The home/away adjustments are still high because the home win percentage is still so high.
  • Massachusetts remains the only team with 5 neutral site wins (Baylor, Kansas, Michigan State and Harvard have 4 each).  Manhattan is 6-0 on the road while Stephen F. Austin is 5-2.  UMass, Harvard, Manhattan and Milwaukee all have 6 road/neutral wins.
  • Wisconsin and Syracuse are both 6-0 against the #KPI top-100.  UMass and Colorado have 3 wins apiece against the #KPI top-50.
  • Oakland has played 8 #KPI top-100 teams (most of anyone).  BYU has played 7 while Wisconsin, Syracuse, North Carolina, Kansas, Arkansas and Boston College have played 6 apiece.
  • The Big East (8-3, .727), Pac-12 (10-7, .588), WCC (15-12, .556) and Big 12 (6-6, .500) are the only conferences at or above .500 in true road games.
  • The Big 12 (27-17, .614) has the best road/neutral record.  The WCC (28-20, .583), Atlantic 10 (35-29, .547), ACC (31-27, .534) and Pac-12 (21-19, .525) round out the top-5.
  • Top-10 #KPI SOS: 1-Kansas; 2-Grambling; 3-Oakland; 4-St. John’s; 5-LSU; 6-South Carolina; 7- North Dakota; 8-New Mexico; 9-BYU; 10-North Carolina
  • 41 of the top-50 #KPI teams commit fewer fouls than their opponents.  40 of the top 50 #KPI teams shoot more free throws than their opponents.

This is the #KPI

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