WEEK 11 #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 1/20/14)

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#KPI Headlines:

  • Kansas is the new No. 1: Despite four losses, Kansas jumped Arizona and Wisconsin after wins at Iowa State (+.92) and vs. Oklahoma State (+.56).  Kansas has the No. 1 #KPI SOS (.184) by a margin of .077 over Florida.  That is the same margin that exists between Florida (No. 2) and San Francisco (No. 96).  Their SOS could finish at a historic high.  Kansas has as many top-5o wins (7) as any other teams does games played against the top-50.  Staggering.
  • 7 of the top-10 wins on the board have occurred since January 5: Michigan, San Diego State, Iowa, Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and Louisville all have road wins worth +0.87 or more in the last two weeks.
  • 3 teams remain unbeaten: No. 2 Arizona (18-0), No. 7 Syracuse (18-0) and No. 8 Wichita State (19-0) are all unbeaten.  Arizona has played the more difficult schedule (No. 27 SOS), followed by Syracuse (No. 57) and Wichita State (No. 93).  Arizona’s remaining SOS is No. 18 while Syracuse’s remaining SOS is No. 53.  Wichita State has a remaining SOS at No. 164 (and a projected final SOS of 130).
  • Road warriors: Five teams remain unbeaten in road/neutral games.  Michigan State is 9-0, Wichita State and San Diego State are 7-0 and Arizona and Syracuse are 6-0.  Those five teams are a combined 88-2 overall.
  • Scoring down as conference play begins: Scoring is 2.0 PPG lower in conference play than in non-conference play.  The 68.9 PPG average in Week 11 (Jan 13-19) is the lowest weekly total of the season.  Possessions are down 2.4 per game in conference play and were at their lowest in Week 11 (66.3 per game).
  • Conference play means closer games: Over the last two weeks, 31% of games have been decided by five points or less, 58% of games have been decided by 10 points or less.  Winning teams average 80.2 PPG in non-conference and 75.5 PPG in conference play (down 6.2%).  Losing teams average 64.0 PPG in non-conference and 64.7 PPG in conference (up 1.1%).

#KPI by Team (through January 19): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-team-thru-jan-19.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through January 19): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-conference-thru-jan-19.pdf

#KPI by Game (through January 19): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-game-thru-jan-19.pdf

Data below compares the full season data from 2012-13 to full season data to date for the 2013-14 season through Sunday, January 19: http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/college-basketball-statistical-trends-through-1-19-14.pdf

#KPI Basketball Field of 68 (through games of January 19, 2014): Automatic bids from the 32 conferences are determined (for now) by best conference record, then best overall record, then best #KPI.

  1. BIG 12 / #1 Kansas (13-4, 4-0 Big 12), .398
  2. PAC-12 / #2 Arizona (18-0, 5-0 Pac-12), .385
  3. #3 Wisconsin (16-2, 3-2 Big Ten), .363
  4. BIG EAST / #4 Villanova (16-1, 5-0 Big East), .361
  5. BIG TEN / #5 Michigan State (17-1, 6-0 Big Ten), .360
  6. #6 Massachusetts (16-1, 3-0 Atlantic 10), .355
  7. ACC / #7 Syracuse (18-0, 5-0 ACC), .331
  8. MVC / #8 Wichita State (19-0, 6-0 MVC), .328
  9. SEC / #9 Florida (15-2, 4-0 SEC), .278
  10. #10 Oklahoma State (15-3, 3-2 Big 12), .270
  11. #11 Iowa State (14-3, 2-3 Big 12), .270
  12. MOUNTAIN WEST / #12 San Diego State (16-1, 5-0 Mountain West), .269
  13. #13 Ohio State (15-3, 2-3 Big Ten), .267
  14. #14 Creighton (15-3, 5-1  Big East), .263
  15. #15 Oklahoma (14-4, 3-2 Big 12), .249
  16. AMERICAN / #16 Cincinnati (17-2, 6-0 American), .248
  17. #17 Kentucky (13-4, 3-1 SEC), .248
  18. #18 George Washington (15-3, 3-1 Atlantic 10), .245
  19. #19 Virginia (13-5, 4-1 ACC), .243
  20. #20 Oregon (13-4, 1-4 Pac-12), .243
  21. #21 Florida State (12-5, 3-2 ACC), .241
  22. #22 Connecticut (14-4, 2-3 American), .235
  23. #23 Michigan (13-4, 5-0 Big Ten), .235
  24. #24 Louisville (16-3, 5-1 American), .234
  25. #25 Pittsburgh (16-2, 4-1 ACC), .228
  26. #26 Colorado (15-4, 4-2 Pac-12), .228
  27. WEST COAST / #27 Gonzaga (16-3, 6-1 WCC), .227
  28. #28 Duke (14-4, 3-2 ACC), .224
  29. #29 Iowa (15-3, 4-1 Big Ten), .223
  30. #30 California (14-4, 5-0 Pac-12), .223
  31. ATLANTIC 10 / #31 Saint Louis (17-2, 4-0 Atlantic 10), .222
  32. #32 Kansas State (14-4, 4-1 Big 12), .219
  33. #33 UCLA (14-4, 3-2 Pac-12), .213
  34. #34 New Mexico (13-4, 4-1 Mountain West), .207
  35. #35 Texas (14-4, 3-2 Big 12), .205
  36. #36 Southern Miss (16-3, 3-1 Conference USA), .205
  37. #37 Xavier (14-4, 4-1 Big East), .198
  38. MAC / #38 Toledo (15-2, 3-1 MAC), .196
  39. #39 Dayton (13-5, 1-2 Atlantic 10), .195
  40. #40 Memphis (13-4, 3-2 American), .195
  41. #41 Stanford (12-5, 3-2 Pac-12), .189
  42. IVY / #42 Harvard (14-2, 1-0 Ivy), .188
  43. #43 VCU (14-4, 2-1 Atlantic 10), .186
  44. HORIZON / #44 Green Bay (15-3, 5-0 Horizon), .184
  45. #45 Minnesota (14-5, 3-3 Big Ten), .181
  46. #46 Baylor (13-4, 1-3 Big 12), .176
  47. #47 North Carolina (11-6, 1-3 ACC), .175
  48. #48 BYU (13-7, 5-2 WCC), .173
  49. #49 Missouri (14-3, 2-2 SEC), .172
  50. #50 SMU (14-4, 3-2 American), .171
  51. MAAC / #70 Manhattan (13-4, 6-2 MAAC), .117
  52. SOUTHLAND / #73 Stephen F. Austin (16-2, 5-0 Southland ), .110
  53. OHIO VALLEY / #74 Belmont (13-7, 5-1 OVC), .109
  54. ATLANTIC SUN / #85 Mercer (15-5, 6-1 Atlantic Sun), .099
  55. COLONIAL / #109 Delaware (12-7, 4-0 Colonial), .070
  56. BIG SKY / #113 Northern Colorado (11-4, 5-1 Big Sky), .068
  57. SUN BELT / #118 Georgia State (12-6, 5-0 Sun Belt), .064
  58. BIG WEST / #131 UC-Irvine (12-7, 3-0 Big West), .048
  59. WAC / #151 Utah Valley (10-7, 4-0 WAC), .026
  60. AMERICA EAST / #154 Stony Brook (12-6, 4-0 America East), .022
  61. NORTHEAST / #159 Robert Morris (9-10, 4-0 Northeast), .016
  62. SUMMIT / #165 South Dakota (8-9, 3-0 Summit), .009
  63. CONFERENCE USA / #166 Old Dominion (9-9, 3-0 Conference USA), .008
  64. PATRIOT / #167 American (10-7, 6-0 Patriot), .008
  65. BIG SOUTH / #198 Radford (13-6, 3-1 Big South), -.023
  66. SOUTHERN / #233 Chattanooga (12-8, 6-0 Southern), -.058
  67. SWAC / #239 Alabama State (10-6, 4-1 SWAC), -.063
  68. MEAC / #293 Savannah State (6-12, 4-0 MEAC), -.118

Conference #KPI Rankings (through games of January 19, 2014)

  1. Big 12 (126-50, .716 / 102-26, .797 Non-Conf) .193 KPI:
  2. Big Ten (154-63, .710 / 122-31, .797 Non-Conf) .175 KPI:
  3. Pac-12 (151-64, .702 / 119-32, .788 Non-Conf) .165 KPI:
  4. Big East (121-58, .676 / 94-31, .752 Non-Conf) .146 KPI:
  5. ACC (175-90, .660 / 138-53, .723 Non-Conf)  .142 KPI:
  6. SEC (153-80, .657 / 125-52, .706 Non-Conf) .120 KPI:
  7. Atlantic 10 (153-77, .665 / 130-54, .707 Non-Conf) .119 KPI:
  8. American (117-60, .661 / 91-34, .728 Non-Conf) .106 KPI:
  9. Mountain West (120-75, .615 / 91-46, .664 Non-Conf) .081 KPI:
  10. WCC (119-76, .610 / 83-40, .675 Non-Conf) .080 KPI:
  11. Missouri Valley (105-79, .571 / 75-49, .605 Non-Conf) .040 KPI:
  12. MAC (110-84, .567 / 86-60, .589 Non-Conf) .028 KPI:
  13. Horizon (94-84, .528 / 70-60, .538 Non-Conf) .009 KPI:
  14. Summit (78-73, .517 / 64-59, .520 Non-Conf) .004 KPI:
  15. Conference USA (161-129, .555 / 131-99, .570 Non-Conf) -.003 KPI:
  16. Sun Belt (86-88, .494 / 59-61, .492 Non-Conf) -.019 KPI:
  17. Colonial (77-88, .467 / 59-70, .457 Non-Conf) -.027 KPI:
  18. Big West (76-84, .475 / 60-68, .469 Non-Conf) -.032 KPI:
  19. Ivy (63-59, .516 / 59-55, .527 Non-Conf) -.035 KPI:
  20. MAAC (91-104, 467 / 48-61, .440 Non-Conf) -.035 KPI:
  21. Patriot (82-91, .474 / 53-62, .461 Non-Conf) -.053 KPI:
  22. WAC (76-90, .458 / 55-69, .444 Non-Conf) -.056 KPI:
  23. Atlantic Sun (88-106, .454 / 53-71, .427 Non-Conf) -.064 KPI:
  24. Southland (108-132, .450 / 70-94, .427 Non-Conf) -.069 KPI:
  25. Ohio Valley (106-130, .449 / 70-94, .427 Non-Conf) -.071 KPI:
  26. Big Sky (75-94, .444 / 43-62, .410 Non-Conf) -.074 KPI:
  27. Big South (98-119, .452 / 74-95, .438 Non-Conf) -.096 KPI:
  28. Southern (90-120, .429 / 63-93, .404 Non-Conf) -.103 KPI:
  29. SWAC (56-106, .346 / 33-83, .284 Non-Conf) -.107 KPI:
  30. Northeast (70-109, .391 / 50-89, .360 Non-Conf) -.115 KPI:
  31. MEAC (75-150, .333 / 48-123, .281 Non-Conf) -.119 KPI:
  32. America East (58-100, .367 / 38-80, .322 Non-Conf) -.127 KPI:

Top 10 #KPI Wins – ROAD GAMES ONLY (through games of January 19, 2014)

  1. +1.09     12/4       #47 North Carolina 79, #5 Michigan State 65
  2. +1.03     11/14     #2 Arizona 69, #12 San Diego State 60
  3. +1.01     1/18       #23 Michigan 77, #3 Wisconsin 70
  4. +0.96     12/1       #8 Wichita State 70, #31 Saint Louis 65
  5. +0.94     1/5         #12 San Diego State 61, #1 Kansas 57
  6. +0.94     1/12       #29 Iowa 84, #13 Ohio State 74
  7. +0.92     1/13       #1 Kansas 77, #11 Iowa State 70
  8. +0.91     1/9         #40 Memphis 73, #24 Louisville 67
  9. +0.89     1/16       #3 UCLA 69, #26 Colorado 56
  10. +0.87     1/18       #24 Louisville 76, #22 Connecticut 64

Top 10 #KPI Wins – NEUTRAL SITE GAMES ONLY (through games of January 19, 2014)

  1. +0.80     12/14     #37 Xavier 64, #16 Cincinnati 47
  2. +0.78     12/21     #21 Florida State 60, #6 Massachusetts 55
  3. +0.73     11/26     #3 Wisconsin 63, #31 Saint Louis 57
  4. +0.71     11/29     #106 Marquette 76, #18 George Washington 60
  5. +0.71     12/1       #18 George Washington 60, #14 Creighton 53
  6. +0.71     11/29     #4 Villanova 63, #1 Kansas 59
  7. +0.69     12/21     #32 Kansas State 72, #27 Gonzaga 62
  8. +0.69     12/17     #16 Cincinnati 44, #25 Pittsburgh 43
  9. +0.69     12/1       #40 Memphis 73, #10 Oklahoma State 68
  10. +0.69     11/29     #12 San Diego State 86, #14 Creighton 80

Top 10 #KPI Wins – HOME GAMES ONLY (through games of January 19, 2014)

  1. +0.71     12/28     #7 Syracuse 78, #4 Villanova 62
  2. +0.67     11/29     #24 Louisville 69, #36 Southern Miss 38
  3. +0.62     11/12     #3 Wisconsin 59, #9 Florida 53
  4. +0.62     1/14       #79 Indiana 75, #3 Wisconsin 72
  5. +0.62     12/7       #34 New Mexico 63, #16 Cincinnati 54
  6. +0.60     12/2       #22 Connecticut 65, #9 Florida 64
  7. +0.60     1/18       #54 Providence 81, #14 Creighton 68
  8. +0.60     1/16       #45 Minnesota 63, #13 Ohio State 53
  9. +0.59     12/31     #32 Kansas State 72, #18 George Washington 55
  10. +0.59     1/18       #7 Syracuse 59, #25 Pittsburgh 54

#KPI Numbers

  • The current adjustments are +0.17 for road teams, -0.18 for home teams and -0.06 for neutral site teams.
  • The average win is worth +0.18.  The average loss is worth -0.19.
  • Scoring (by conference, all games): 1-Big 12 (77.5 PPG); 2-Pac-12 (76.9 PPG); 3-WCC (76.2 PPG); 4-Big East (75.0 PPG); 5-Big Ten (75.0 PPG); 6-American (74.6 PPG); 7-Big South (73.9 PPG); 8-SEC (73.8 PPG); 9-Horizon (73.7 PPG); 10-Mountain West (73.6 PPG)
  • Scoring (by conference, conference games only): 1-Big South (75.5 PPG); 2-Southland (75.3 PPG); 3-MAAC (74.9 PPG); 4-Big 12 (73.5 PPG); 5-Northeast (73.4 PPG); 6-Ohio Valley (72.9 PPG); 7-Big East (72.3 PPG); 8-Southern (72.3 PPG); 9-WCC (71.9 PPG); 10-Atlantic Sun (71.2 PPG)
  • Possessions Per Game (by conference, conference games only): 1-Southland (70.8); 2-MAAC (69.7); 3-Atlantic 10 (69.2); 4-Pac-12 (68.8); 5-Big 12 (68.7); 6-Big South (68.7); 7-Sun Belt (68.6); 8-Big East (68.3); 9-Northeast (68.2); 10-SEC (68.1)

#KPI Facts

  • Home teams are 2155-828 (.722). There have been 351 games (10.5% of all games) played at a neutral site.  25.7% of all games are conference games to date.
  • Non-Conference #KPI: 1-Wisconsin; 2-Massachusetts; 3-Arizona; 4-Wichita State; 5-Syracuse; 6-Villanova; 7-Oregon; 8-Iowa State; 9-Ohio State; 10-Kansas
  • Conference #KPI: 1-Kansas; 2-Michigan State; 3-California; 4-Michigan; 5-Virginia; 6-Villanova; 7-Arizona; 8-Penn; 9-Oklahoma; 10-Cincinnati
  • #KPI Only in Top-50 Games: 1-Arizona; 2-Northern Colorado; 3-Wichita State; 4-Wisconsin; 5-Syracuse; 6-San Diego State; 7-Missouri; 8-Michigan State; 9-Kansas State; 10-Villanova
  • #KPI Strength of Schedule: 1-Kansas; 2-Kentucky; 3-Oklahoma; 4-Wisconsin; 5-Duke; 6-Iowa State; 7-Florida State; 8-Florida; 9-Virginia; 10-Michigan
  • 12.7% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non-Division I teams.  Division I teams are 410-14 (.967) in those games by a margin of 90.1 PPG to 60.7 PPG.  Non-Division I games also count in the #KPI rankings.  All games against Non-Division I teams count as one opponent (currently No. 345 in the #KPI).

#KPI Top 10 Games This Week (January 20-26, 2014)

  1. #14 Creighton at #4 Villanova (Monday 7 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1)
  2. #23 Michigan at #5 Michigan State (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  3. #26 Colorado at #2 Arizona (Thursday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  4. #32 Kansas State at #11 Iowa State (Saturday 1:30 p.m. ET, ESPN Full Court/Big 12 Network)
  5. #46 Baylor at #1 Kansas (Monday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  6. #3 Wisconsin at #45 Minnesota (Wednesday 9 p.m. ET, BTN)
  7. #21 Florida State at #28 Duke (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  8. #29 Iowa at #23 Michigan (Wednesday 7 p.m. ET, BTN)
  9. #52 Tennessee at #9 Florida (Saturday 4 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  10. #30 California at #33 UCLA (Sunday 8 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

Notes on Rule Changes:

  • Per Possession Data is critical.  Points are up 2.8% per possession, fouls up 6.7% per possession and free throw attempts up 11.3% per possession.  Possessions per game are up 3.2% (2.1 per team, per game).
  • 23.4% of games have been decided by 5 points or less, 22.1% of games by 6-10 points, 29.9% of games decided by 11-20 points and 24.6% decided by more than 20 points.
  • Week 11 (Jan 13-19) had the lowest points per game of any week to date (68.9 PPG).  Possessions were at a season-low 66.3 per game while field goal attempts were at a season-low 54.2 per game.

Points Per Game: Up 6.0% (4.3 PPG); from 67.5 PPG to 71.6 PPG. Through January 20 of last season, teams were averaging 67.3 PPG (up 6.4% this year over the same time period). This is the highest scoring average since 1995-96 (72.5 PPG).  Points Per Possession have increased at a rate of 2.8%.  Teams averaged 73.2 PPG in November, 70.7 PPG in December and 70.1 PPG in January.

In 2012-13, 52.3% of points came from made 2-pt FGs, 27.4% from made 3-pt FGs and 20.3% from made free throws.  In 2013-14, 51.4% of points have come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.6% from made 3-pt FGs and 22.0% from made free throws.  The net increase is +1.66 points from made 2′s, +0.60 points from made 3′s and +2.07 points from made free throws.  In conference games only this year, 50.7% of points come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.7% from made 3′s and 22.6% from made free throws.

Average Margin Per Game: +14.8 PPG: The average margin in 2012-13 was +13.1 PPG, but was +14.6 PPG through the same period last season.  The average margin in non-conference play is 17.1 PPG compared to 10.8 PPG in conference play.

Possessions Per Game: Up 3.2% (2.1 possession per game); from 66.7 to 68.8 possessions per game per team.  Possessions are 2.4 possessions per game lower in conference play than non-conference play this year.

Field Goal Attempts: Up 2.4% (1.3 FGA per game); from 55.0 to 56.3 FGA: Team field goal percentage is at 43.9%, up from 43.3% last year.  Field goals made are up 3.8%. Field goal attempts are at their highest mark since 2001-02 (57.23 FGA/game).  Teams are attempting 2.2 fewer field goals in conference play than non-conference.

3-pt Field Goal Attempts: Up 2.5% (0.5 3-ptA per game); from 18.1 to 18.6 3-ptA: 3-pt field goal percentage is at 34.1%, down from 34.2% last year.  3-pt field goal attempts are at their highest number since an all-time high in 2007-08 (19.1 per game).

Free Throw Attempts: Up 14.8% (2.9 FTA per game); from 19.8 to 22.7 FTA: Team free throw percentage is at 69.4% (69.3% last year).  Teams are making 2.0 more free throws per game this year.  Free throw attempts are at their highest mark since 1993-94 (23.2 FTA/game).  Free Throw Attempts fell from 23.5 in November to 21.9 in December, but have risen to 22.4 per game so far in January.  Free Throw Attempts have remained relatively constant in non-conference (22.8) and conference (22.5).

Assists: Up 0.4% (0.1 assists per game); from 12.8 to 12.9 assists: Assists per possession are down 2.6% partly because an assist is not attached to a made free throw.

Turnovers: Down 3.5% (0.5 turnovers per game); 13.3 to 12.8 turnovers: Turnovers per possession are down 6.5% while steals per possession are down 8.4%.  More plays that used to be steals/turnovers are being called fouls.

Personal Fouls: Up 10.1% (1.8 fouls per game); 17.7 to 19.5 fouls: Personal fouls are at their highest mark since 2000-01 (19.92 fouls per game).  Fouls per possession are up 6.7%.  Total fouls called trended downward the first eight weeks this season (21.2, 20.5, 19.9, 19.3, 19.2, 19.1, 18.9, 18.5) before week to week increases in both Week 9 (18.9) and Week 10 (19.4).  19.1 fouls per game were called in Week 11.

Comparative analysis includes data from all games involving Division-I teams for the 2013-14 season.  Historical data is courtesy of the NCAA and can be found here.

Overall data differs slightly from NCAA data due to inclusion of games involving Division-I teams vs. Non Division-I teams.  As more D-I vs. D-I games are played, the included data is further diluted.

This is the #KPI.

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