WEEK 15.5 #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 2/21/14)

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#KPI resumes for each team ranked from highest to lowest #KPI value per game, in Excel (through February 20): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/kpi-rank-by-game-thru-2-20-14.xlsx

#KPI by Team (through February 20): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-team-thru-feb-20.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through February 20): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-conference-thru-feb-20.pdf

Data below compares the full season data from 2012-13 to full season data to date for the 2013-14 season (through February 20): http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/college-basketball-statistical-trends-through-2-20-14.pdf

#KPI Headlines:

  • Game Outliers: As detailed Wednesday (https://twitter.com/KPIsports/status/436339339962773505), the Boston College win at Syracuse is the second best win on the board this season, and is the largest outlier game.  The top-10 outliers: 1-BC at Syracuse (.99); 2-George Mason at UMass (.84); 3-New Hampshire at Stony Brook (.84); 4-Non D-I/Metro State at Elon (.83); 5-Non D-I/Metro State vs. Canisius (.83); 6-Maine vs. Middle Tennessee (.81); 7-Northwestern at Wisconsin (.79); 8-Non D-I/Nova Southeastern at Florida International (.75); 9-Cal Poly at UC-Santa Barbara (.72); 10-Fordham at Manhattan (.71)
  • Matt Norlander of CBSSports.com again profiled the trends that have been tracked since November: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24449637/tracking-the-trends-scoring-still-way-ahead-of-last-years-pace.
  • Of potential at-large teams since Monday, BYU (+6), Colorado (+6), George Washington (+5), Oregon (+5), Tennessee (+5), Nebraska (+5), North Carolina (+4), Baylor (+4) and UCLA (+4) helped themselves the most this week.

#KPI Basketball Field of 68 (through games of February 20, 2014): Automatic bids from the 32 conferences are determined (for now) by best conference record, then best overall record, then best #KPI.

  1. PAC-12 / #1 Arizona (24-2, 11-2 Pac-12), .359 / Best Win: at San Diego State .99
  2. BIG 12 / #2 Kansas (20-6, 11-2 Big 12), .351 / Best Win: at Iowa State .87
  3. #3 Wisconsin (21-5, 8-5 Big Ten), .344 / Best Win: at Virginia .96
  4. #4 Villanova (23-3, 11-2 Big East), .322 / Best Win: at Saint Joseph’s .84
  5. SEC / #5 Florida (24-2, 13-0 SEC), .319 / Best Win: at Kentucky .89
  6. MVC / #6 Wichita State (28-0, 15-0 MVC), .315 / Best Win: at Saint Louis .97
  7. #7 Syracuse (25-1, 12-1 ACC), .306 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .79
  8. BIG EAST / #8 Creighton (22-4, 12-2 Big East), .304 / Best Win: at Villanova 1.09
  9. BIG TEN / #9 Michigan State (22-5, 11-3 Big Ten), .280 / Best Win: at Texas .85
  10. ATLANTIC 10 / #10 Saint Louis (24-2, 11-0 A-10), .274 / Best Win: at Saint Joseph’s .82
  11. #11 Ohio State (21-6, 8-6 Big Ten), .272 / Best Win: at Wisconsin .88
  12. #12 UCLA (21-5, 10-3 Pac-12), .269 / Best Win: at Colorado .82
  13. ACC / #13 Virginia (22-5, 13-1 ACC), .268 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .80
  14. #14 Kentucky (20-6, 10-3 SEC), .268 / Best Win: at Missouri .74
  15. #15 Michigan (18-7, 10-3 Big Ten), .267 / Best Win: at Wisconsin .92
  16. #16 Iowa State (20-5, 8-5 Big 12), .265 / Best Win: at BYU .67
  17. #17 Massachusetts (20-5, 7-4 A-10), .262 / Best Win: at George Washington .81
  18. #18 Duke (21-6, 10-4 ACC), .259 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .86
  19. AMERICAN / #19 Cincinnati (24-3, 13-1 American), .256 / Best Win: at Louisville .88
  20. #20 New Mexico (20-5, 11-2 Mountain West), .253 / Best Win: at New Mexico State .73
  21. MOUNTAIN WEST / #21 San Diego State (23-2, 12-1 Mountain West), .246 / Best Win: at Kansas .91
  22. #22 Texas (20-6, 9-4 Big 12), .243 / Best Win: at North Carolina .77
  23. #23 North Carolina (19-7, 9-4 ACC), .241 / Best Win: at Michigan State .94
  24. #24 Iowa (19-6, 8-4 Big Ten), .223 / Best Win: at Ohio State .87
  25. #25 VCU (20-6, 8-3 A-10), .223 / Best Win: at Virginia .88
  26. #26 Oklahoma (19-7, 8-5 Big 12), .218 / Best Win: at Texas .80
  27. #27 Connecticut (21-5, 9-4 American), .213 / Best Win: at Memphis .81
  28. #28 George Washington (20-6, 8-4 A-10), .210 / Best Win: at Manhattan .75
  29. WCC / #29 Gonzaga (23-5, 13-2 WCC), .207 / Best Win: at San Francisco .58
  30. #30 Louisville (22-4, 11-2 American), .204 / Best Win: at Connecticut .89
  31. MAC / #31 Toledo (22-4, 10-3 MAC), .201 / Best Win: at Akron .66
  32. #32 Pittsburgh (20-6, 8-5 ACC), .195 / Best Win: at N.C. State .64
  33. #33 Colorado (20-7, 9-5 Pac-12), .195 / Best Win: vs. Kansas .57
  34. #34 Arizona State (19-7, 8-5 Pac-12), .187 / Best Win: at California .69
  35. #35 Missouri (19-7, 7-6 SEC), .185 / Best Win: at Arkansas .61
  36. #36 Oregon (17-8, 5-8 Pac-12), .180 / Best Win: at Mississippi .58
  37. #37 Stanford (17-8, 8-5 Pac-12), .180 / Best Win: at Connecticut .84
  38. SUMMIT / #38 North Dakota State (20-6, 9-2 Summit), .179 / Best Win: at Western Michigan .63
  39. #39 California (17-9, 8-5 Pac-12), .179 / Best Win: at Oregon .74
  40. #40 Kansas State (18-8, 8-5 Big 12), .179 / Best Win: vs. Gonzaga .68
  41. #41 BYU (19-10, 11-5 WCC), .177 / Best Win: at Stanford .70
  42. #42 Oklahoma State (16-10, 4-9 Big 12), .173 / Best Win: vs. Louisiana Tech .63
  43. #43 Saint Joseph’s (18-7, 8-3 A-10), .172 / Best Win: at Dayton .69
  44. #44 Dayton (18-8, 6-5 A-10), .168 / Best Win: vs. Gonzaga .65
  45. #45 Memphis (20-6, 9-4 American), .167 / Best Win: at Louisville .89
  46. HORIZON / #46 Green Bay (22-5, 12-2 Horizon), .166 / Best Win: at Cleveland State .66
  47. #47 Southern Miss (22-5, 9-3 C-USA), .165 / Best Win: at North Dakota State .79
  48. #48 Baylor (17-9, 5-8 Big 12), .165 / Best Win: vs. Kentucky .66
  49. IVY / #49 Harvard (20-4, 7-1 Ivy), .162 / Best Win: at Boston U. .72
  50. SOUTHLAND / #50 Stephen F. Austin (24-2, 13-0 Southland), .159 / Best Win: at Sam Houston State .69
  51. OHIO VALLEY / #51 Belmont (21-8, 12-2 OVC), .157 / Best Win: at Middle Tennessee .78
  52. #52 Minnesota (17-10, 6-8 Big Ten), .156 / Best Win: at Richmond .72
  53. #53 Tennessee (16-10, 7-6 SEC), .153 / Best Win: vs. Virginia .69
  54. CONFERENCE USA / #69 Middle Tennessee (20-7, 10-2 C-USA), .119 / Best Win: vs. Southern Miss .57
  55. COLONIAL / #78 Delaware (20-8, 12-1 Colonial), .110 / Best Win: at William & Mary .54
  56. ATLANTIC SUN / #81 Mercer (21-6, 12-2 Atlantic Sun), .108 / Best Win: at Mississippi .56
  57. MAAC / #88 Iona (17-8, 14-2 MAAC), .096 / Best Win: at Canisius .56
  58. PATRIOT / #89 Boston U. (20-8, 13-2 Patriot), .095 / Best Win: at Quinnipiac .65
  59. BIG WEST / #95 UC-Irvine (18-9, 9-2 Big West), .083 / Best Win: at Hawaii .57
  60. SUN BELT / #99 Georgia State (19-7, 12-1 Sun Belt), .081 / Best Win: at Western Kentucky .65
  61. AMERICA EAST / #117 Vermont (18-9, 12-1 America East), .054 / Best Win: at Yale .50
  62. MEAC / #123 North Carolina Central (20-5, 11-1 MEAC), .049 / Best Win: at N.C. State .63
  63. NORTHEAST / #146 Robert Morris (17-11, 12-1 Northeast), .027 / Best Win: at St. Francis-NY .46
  64. WAC / #148 Utah Valley (16-9, 10-2 WAC), .026 / Best Win: Grand Canyon .35
  65. SOUTHERN / #150 Davidson (16-11, 12-1 Southern), .025 / Best Win: at Wofford .53
  66. BIG SKY / #161 Weber State (14-9, 11-4 Big Sky), .012 / Best Win: Northern Colorado .33
  67. BIG SOUTH / #201 VMI (16-10, 9-4 Big South), -.024 / Best Win: at Radford .47
  68. SWAC / #246 Alabama State (14-9, 8-4 SWAC), -.068 / Best Win: Alcorn State .12
  69. (OUT) #54 Nebraska (15-10, 7-6 Big Ten), .149 / Best Win: at Michigan State .93
  70. (OUT) #55 Richmond (17-9, 7-4 A-10), .149 / Best Win: vs. Massachusetts .54
  71. (OUT) #56 SMU (21-6, 10-4 American), .147 / Best Win: vs. Cincinnati .69
  72. (OUT) #57 Xavier (18-8, 8-5 Big East), .145 / Best Win: vs. Cincinnati .82
  73. (OUT) #58 Ohio (18-8, 8-5 MAC), .144 / Best Win: at Richmond .65
  74. (OUT) #59 St. John’s (18-9, 8-6 Big East), .141 / Best Win: at Providence .61
  75. (OUT) #60 St. Mary’s-CA (19-9, 9-6 WCC), .141 / Best Win: at Boise State .65
  76. (OUT) #61 North Carolina State (16-10, 6-7 ACC), .135 / Best Win: at Tennessee .63

Conference #KPI Rankings (through games of February 20, 2014)

  1. Big 12 (167-91, .647 / 102-26, .797 Non-Conf) .176 KPI:
  2. Big Ten (202-112, .643 / 122-32, .792 Non-Conf) .172 KPI:
  3. Pac-12 (199-112, .640 / 119-32, .788 Non-Conf) .150 KPI:
  4. Big East (164-99, .624 / 96-31, .756 Non-Conf) .137 KPI:
  5. ACC (239-153, .610 / 139-53, .723 Non-Conf)  .128 KPI:
  6. Atlantic 10 (205-128, .616 / 131-54, .708 Non-Conf) .118 KPI:
  7. SEC (216-143, .602 / 125-52, .706 Non-Conf) .113 KPI:
  8. American (159-102, .609 / 92-35, .724 Non-Conf) .085 KPI:
  9. WCC (160-118, .576 / 83-41, .669 Non-Conf) .072 KPI:
  10. Mountain West (165-120, .579 / 91-46, .664 Non-Conf) .071 KPI:
  11. MAC (164-138, .543 / 86-60, .589 Non-Conf) .033 KPI:
  12. Missouri Valley (150-124, .547 / 75-49, .605 Non-Conf) .027 KPI:
  13. Horizon (130-119, .522 / 71-60, .542 Non-Conf) .010 KPI:
  14. Summit (110-103, .516 / 66-59, .528 Non-Conf) .008 KPI:
  15. Conference USA (228-195, .539 / 132-99, .571 Non-Conf) .000 KPI:
  16. Sun Belt (125-127, .496 / 59-61, .492 Non-Conf) -.016 KPI:
  17. Colonial (119-130, .478 / 59-70, .457 Non-Conf) -.022 KPI:
  18. Ivy (92-87, .514 / 61-56, .521 Non-Conf) -.024 KPI:
  19. MAAC (140-154, 476 / 48-62, .436 Non-Conf) -.028 KPI:
  20. Big West (112-121, .481 / 60-69, .465 Non-Conf) -.040 KPI:
  21. Patriot (128-137, .483 / 53-62, .461 Non-Conf) -.048 KPI:
  22. Atlantic Sun (127-145, .467 / 53-71, .427 Non-Conf) -.061 KPI:
  23. WAC (110-124, .470 / 56-70, .444 Non-Conf) -.063 KPI:
  24. Big Sky (125-144, .465 / 43-62, .410 Non-Conf) -.064 KPI:
  25. Ohio Valley (155-176, .468 / 74-95, .438 Non-Conf) -.064 KPI:
  26. Southland (163-185, .468 / 72-94, .434 Non-Conf) -.073 KPI:
  27. Big South (153-173, .469 / 75-95, .441 Non-Conf) -.084 KPI:
  28. Southern (135-165, .450 / 64-94, .405 Non-Conf) -.093 KPI:
  29. Northeast (112-151, .426 / 50-89, .360 Non-Conf) -.106 KPI:
  30. America East (99-140, .414 / 39-80, .328 Non-Conf) -.122 KPI:
  31. SWAC (96-146, .397 / 33-83, .284 Non-Conf) -.128 KPI:
  32. MEAC (127-205, .383 / 49-127, .278 Non-Conf) -.139 KPI:

Top 10 #KPI Wins – ROAD GAMES ONLY (through games of February 20, 2014)

  1. 1.09        #8 Creighton 96, #4 Villanova 68 (Jan 20)
  2. .99          #197 Boston College 62, #7 Syracuse 59 (Feb 19)
  3. .99          #1 Arizona 69, #21 San Diego State 60 (Nov 14)
  4. .97          #6 Wichita State 70, #10 Saint Louis 65 (Dec 1)
  5. .96          #3 Wisconsin 48, #13 Virginia 38 (Dec 4)
  6. .94          #100 Northwestern 65, #3 Wisconsin 56 (Jan 29)
  7. .94          #23 North Carolina 79, #9 Michigan State 65 (Dec 4)
  8. .93          #54 Nebraska 60, #9 Michigan State 51 (Feb 16)
  9. .92          #15 Michigan 77, #3 Wisconsin 70 (Jan 18)
  10. .91          #21 San Diego State 61, #2 Kansas 57 (Jan 5)

Top 10 #KPI Wins – NEUTRAL SITE GAMES ONLY (through games of February 20, 2014)

  1. .82          #57 Xavier 64, #19 Cincinnati 47 (Dec 14)
  2. .78          #3 Wisconsin 63, #10 Saint Louis 57 (Nov 26)
  3. .74          #28 George Washington 60, #8 Creighton 53 (Dec 1)
  4. .73          #18 Duke 80, #12 UCLA 63 (Dec 19)
  5. .73          #21 San Diego State 86, #8 Creighton 80 (Nov 29)
  6. .72          #2 Kansas 80, #20 New Mexico 63 (Dec 14)
  7. .72          #17 Massachusetts 81, #20 New Mexico 65 (Nov 22)
  8. .70          #4 Villanova 63, #2 Kansas 59 (Nov 29)
  9. .70          #23 North Carolina 93, #30 Louisville 84 (Nov 24)
  10. .69          #2 Kansas 94, #18 Duke 83 (Nov 12)

Top 10 #KPI Wins – HOME GAMES ONLY (through games of February 20, 2014)

  1. .69          #56 SMU 76, #19 Cincinnati 55 (Feb 8)
  2. .69          #53 Tennessee 87, #13 Virginia 52 (Dec 30)
  3. .68          #8 Creighton 101, #4 Villanova 80 (Feb 16)
  4. .68          #7 Syracuse 78, #4 Villanova 62 (Dec 28)
  5. .67          #3 Wisconsin 59, #5 Florida 53 (Nov 12)
  6. .66          #34 Arizona State 69, #1 Arizona 66 (Feb 14)
  7. .65          #39 California 60, #1 Arizona 58 (Feb 1)
  8. .65          #30 Louisville 69, #47 Southern Miss 38 (Nov 29)
  9. .65          #93 Eastern Michigan 65, #31 Toledo 44 (Feb 15)
  10. .64          #27 Connecticut 65, #5 Florida 64 (Dec 2)

#KPI Numbers

  • The current adjustments are +0.16 for road teams, -0.17 for home teams and -0.04 for neutral site teams.
  • The average win is worth +0.19.  The average loss is worth -0.20.
  • Scoring (by conference, all games): 1-Big 12 (76.4 PPG); 2-Pac-12 (75.1 PPG); 3-WCC (74.6 PPG); 4-Ohio Valley (74.2 PPG); 5-Big South (73.9 PPG); 6-Big East (73.6 PPG); 7-American (73.2 PPG); 8-MAAC (72.9 PPG); 9-Southland (72.8 PPG); 10-Horizon (72.4 PPG)
  • Scoring (by conference, conference games only): 1-Ohio Valley (74.9 PPG); 2-Big South (74.2 PPG); 3-MAAC (73.8 PPG); 4-Big 12 (73.7 PPG); 5-Southland (73.5 PPG); 6-Northeast (73.1 PPG); 7-Atlantic Sun (72.0 PPG); 8-WCC (71.4 PPG); 9-Big East (71.2 PPG); 10-Southern (71.0 PPG)

#KPI Facts

  • Home teams are 3,062-1,388 (.688). Home teams are 1,393-903 (.607) in conference play and 1,669-485 (.775) in non-conference play. There have been 352 games (7.3% of all games) played at a neutral site.  350 of 352 neutral site games are non-conference.  47.9% of all games are conference games to date.
  • Non-Conference #KPI: 1-Wisconsin; 2-Arizona; 3-Massachusetts; 4-Wichita State; 5-Ohio State; 6-Kansas; 7-Syracuse; 8-Oregon; 9-Iowa State; 10-Villanoav
  • Conference #KPI: 1-Michigan; 2-Kansas; 3-Florida; 4-Virginia; 5-Saint Louis; 6-Arizona; 7-UCLA; 8-Creighton; 9-Villanova; 10-Michigan State
  • #KPI in Home Games Only: 1-Kansas; 2-Duke; 3-Florida; 4-Kentucky; 5-Colorado; 6-Arizona; 7-UCLA; 8-Creighton; 9-Iowa State; 10-Kansas State
  • #KPI in Road/Neutral Games Only: 1-Arizona; 2-Wisconsin; 3-Syracuse; 4-Wichita State; 5-Villanova; 6-Michigan State; 7-Virginia; 8-Ohio State; 9-San Diego State; 10-Kansas
  • #KPI Only in Top-25 Games: 1-Wichita State (1-0); 2-Arizona (4-0); 3-Massachusetts (1-0); 4-Charlotte (1-0); 5-Creighton (2-1); 6-Syracuse (3-0); 7-San Diego State (2-1); 8-Wisconsin (6-2); 9-Florida (2-1); 10-VCU (1-1)
  • #KPI Only in Top-50 Games: 1-Wichita State (2-0); 2-Northern Colorado (1-0); 3-East Tennessee State (1-0); 4-Syracuse (7-0); 5-Cincinnati (4-1); 6-Wisconsin (7-2); 7-San Diego State (2-1); 8-Arizona (8-2); 9-Creighton (5-2); 10-Massachusetts (4-1)
  • #KPI Only in Top-100 Games: 1-Wichita State (5-0); 2-Syracuse (12-0); 3-Arizona (12-2); 4-Florida (10-2); 5-Villanova (10-3); 6-Saint Louis (7-2); 7-Cincinnati (8-3); 8-Wisconsin (14-4); 9-San Diego State (9-2); 10-Michigan (10-5)
  • #KPI Strength of Schedule: 1-Kansas (.160); 2-Wisconsin (.132); 3-Michigan (.122); 4-Northwestern (.118); 5-Iowa State (.117); 6-Duke (.112); 7-Nebraska (.106); 8-Michigan State (.105); 9-DePaul (.105); 10-Texas (.104)
  • 9.0% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non-Division I teams.  Division I teams are 420-14 (.968) in those games by a margin of 90.1 PPG to 60.6 PPG.  Non-Division I games also count in the #KPI rankings.  All games against Non-Division I teams count as one opponent (currently No. 347 in the #KPI).

#KPI Top Games This Weekend (February 21-23, 2014)

  1. #9 Michigan State at #15 Michigan (Sunday 12 p.m. ET, CBS)
  2. #22 Texas at #2 Kansas (Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
  3. #7 Syracuse at #18 Duke (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  4. #3 Wisconsin at #24 Iowa (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  5. #1 Arizona at #33 Colorado (Saturday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  6. #28 George Washington at #10 Saint Louis (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, FOX Sports Midwest/Comcast SportsNet Mid-Atlantic)
  7. #21 San Diego State at #20 New Mexico (Saturday 10 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  8. #25 VCU at #17 Massachusetts (Friday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  9. #30 Louisville at #19 Cincinnati (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, CBS)
  10. #12 UCLA at #37 Stanford (Saturday 6 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

This is the #KPI.

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