#KPI Headlines:
- #KPI Excel resumes ranked by #KPI value per game (through March 9), #KPI by Team (through March 9) and #KPI by Conference (through March 9). Notes on Rule Changes are also available. Note the discrepancy between #KPI and NCAA data is how games against Non D-I schools are counted (3.9% of the data)
- Conference tournament brackets are linked below.
- The six teams who qualified for an NIT automatic bid should they not make the NCAA Tournament (Belmont, Davidson, Florida Gulf Coast, Green Bay, High Point and Vermont) combined to go 84-14 (.857) in conference and 5-6 (.455) in conference tournament action. Matt Norlander wrote about how conferences determine how their AQ (automatic qualifier) is determined. Of the six, three lost in neutral court games, two in home games and one in a true road game (Vermont at Albany).
- The difference between No. 50 Green Bay and No. 51 Tennessee (at the math cut line) is .00137. No. 53 SMU (who I believe the math may have wrong right now) is .00597 below the cut line. SMU is hurt by 15 games against teams below No. 200 in the #KPI (they are 10-6 vs. the top-200, 13-2 against sub-200 teams). #KPI data disagreed with Gary Parrish’s piece on the American, and SMU is a perfect example of why.
- No. 5 Wichita State has cut the gap to .00132 between them and No. 4 Wisconsin. Wichita State has a No. 3 non-conference #KPI and No. 8 conference #KPI. Their 17 road/neutral wins are two more than anybody else (Harvard and Manhattan have 15 each). No. 44 Stephen F. Austin has 14 true road wins (no neutral site games played).
- Scoring in conference tournament action (69.75 PPG) is nearly identical to scoring in regular season conference play (69.72 PPG) so far. Scoring is up in conference tournament action by 0.035%.
- For the seventh consecutive week, weekly scoring numbers ranged between 69.4 and 69.9 PPG. Possessions per game have hovered between 66.0 and 66.5 per game each of the last eight weeks.
#KPI NCAA Tournament Field of 68 (through March 9): Automatic bids from the 32 conferences are determined by the top remaining seed in the conference tournament if that conference’s regular season is over. If not, the AQ will temporarily be determined by best conference record, then best overall record, then best #KPI. This list is comprised purely by math with no scrubbing. Conference tournament brackets are linked below.
- PAC-12 / #1 Arizona (28-3, 15-3 Pac-12), .364 / Best Win: at San Diego State .98
- SEC / #2 Florida (29-2, 18-0 SEC), .334 / Best Win: at Kentucky .79
- BIG 12 / #3 Kansas (23-8, 14-4 Big 12), .326 / Best Win: at Iowa State .83
- #4 Wisconsin (25-6, 12-6 Big Ten), .321 / Best Win: at Virginia .94
- MVC / #5 Wichita State (34-0, 21-0 MVC), .320 / Best Win: at Saint Louis .90
- BIG EAST / #6 Villanova (28-3, 16-2 Big East), .316 / Best Win: at Saint Joseph’s .82
- BIG TEN / #7 Michigan (23-7, 15-3 Big Ten), .280 / Best Win: at Wisconsin .91
- #8 Syracuse (27-4, 14-4 ACC), .276 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .74
- #9 Creighton (24-6, 14-4 Big East), .271 / Best Win: at Villanova 1.09
- ACC / #10 Virginia (25-6, 16-2 ACC), .269 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .75
- #11 Duke (24-7, 13-5 ACC), .258 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .80
- ATLANTIC 10 / #12 Saint Louis (26-5, 13-3 A-10), .247 / Best Win: at Massachusetts .81
- #13 Louisville (26-5, 15-3 American), .247 / Best Win: at Cincinnati .87
- MOUNTAIN WEST / #14 San Diego State (27-3, 16-2 Mountain West), .246 / Best Win: at Kansas .86
- #15 New Mexico (24-6, 15-3 Mountain West), .246 / Best Win: at New Mexico State .72
- AMERICAN / #16 Cincinnati (26-5, 15-3 American), .243 / Best Win: at Louisville .89
- #17 Massachusetts (23-7, 10-6 A-10), .243 / Best Win: at George Washington .81
- #18 VCU (24-7, 12-4 A-10), .242 / Best Win: at Virginia .87
- #19 Ohio State (23-8, 10-8 Big Ten), .242 / Best Win: at Wisconsin .88
- #20 Iowa State (23-7, 11-7 Big 12), .240 / Best Win: at BYU .70
- #21 Michigan State (23-8, 12-6 Big Ten), .236 / Best Win: at Texas .77
- #22 North Carolina (23-8, 13-5 ACC), .228 / Best Win: at Michigan State .85
- #23 Oklahoma (23-8, 12-6 Big 12), .226 / Best Win: at Texas .72
- #24 UCLA (23-8, 12-6 Pac-12), .222 / Best Win: at Oregon .76
- #25 Oregon (22-8, 10-8 Pac-12), .221 / Best Win: at UCLA .78
- #26 Kentucky (22-9, 12-6 SEC), .219 / Best Win: at Missouri .66
- WCC / #27 Gonzaga (26-6, 16-3 WCC), .213 / Best Win: at St. Mary’s-CA .81
- #28 Texas (22-9, 11-7 Big 12), .205 / Best Win: at North Carolina .78
- #29 Connecticut (24-7, 12-6 American), .204 / Best Win: at Memphis .79
- #30 Dayton (22-9, 10-6 A-10), .202 / Best Win: at Saint Louis .90
- #31 George Washington (23-7, 11-5 A-10), .201 / Best Win: at Manhattan .77
- #32 Baylor (21-10, 9-9 Big 12), .197 / Best Win: at Oklahoma State .68
- IVY / #33 Harvard (26-4, 13-1 Ivy), .187 / Best Win: at Boston U. .73
- #34 Colorado (21-10, 10-8 Pac-12), .183 / Best Win: at Stanford .64
- #35 Pittsburgh (23-8, 11-7 ACC), .183 / Best Win: at N.C. State .61
- SUMMIT / #36 North Dakota State (23-6, 12-2 Summit), .181 / Best Win: at Western Michigan .66
- #37 Oklahoma State (20-11, 8-10 Big 12), .177 / Best Win: vs. Louisiana Tech .69
- #38 BYU (22-10, 14-5 WCC), .176 / Best Win: at St. Mary’s-CA .67
- #39 Toledo (26-5, 14-4 MAC), .176 / Best Win: at Akron .61
- #40 Memphis (23-8, 12-6 American), .176 / Best Win: at Louisville .91
- #41 Southern Miss (26-5, 13-3 C-USA), .176 / Best Win: at North Dakota State .80
- #42 Saint Joseph’s (21-9, 11-5 A-10), .175 / Best Win: at Dayton .73
- #43 Stanford (19-11, 10-8 Pac-12), .175 / Best Win: at Connecticut .80
- SOUTHLAND / #44 Stephen F. Austin (29-2, 18-0 Southland), .168 / Best Win: at Sam Houston State .63
- #45 Iowa (20-11, 9-9 Big Ten), .166 / Best Win: at Ohio State .82
- #46 Arizona State (21-10, 10-8 Pac-12), .166 / Best Win: vs. Arizona .65
- #47 Kansas State (20-11, 10-8 Big 12), .162 / Best Win: vs. Gonzaga .70
- #48 Nebraska (19-11, 11-7 Big Ten), .162 / Best Win: at Michigan State .83
- #49 California (19-12, 10-8 Pac-12), .161 / Best Win: at Oregon .80
- #50 Green Bay (24-6, 14-3 Horizon), .158 / Best Win: at Cleveland State .67
- CONFERENCE USA / #57 Louisiana Tech (25-6, 13-3 C-USA), .145 / Best Win: at Oklahoma .77
- MAAC / #70 Iona (22-9, 19-3 MAAC), .116 / Best Win: at Florida Gulf Coast .55
- SUN BELT / #72 Georgia State (24-7, 17-1 Sun Belt), .114 / Best Win: at Western Kentucky .63
- PATRIOT / #81 Boston U. (24-9, 17-3 Patriot), .102 / Best Win: vs. UC-Irvine .64
- MAC / #82 Western Michigan (21-9, 14-4 MAC), .101 / Best Win: at Ohio .69
- COLONIAL / #84 Delaware (24-9, 16-2 Colonial), .100 / Best Win: at William & Mary .57
- ATLANTIC SUN / #87 Mercer (26-8, 17-4 Atlantic Sun), .099 / Best Win: at Florida Gulf Coast .53
- OHIO VALLEY / #91 Eastern Kentucky (24-9, 14-5 OVC), .089 / Best Win: at IPFW .69
- BIG WEST / #98 UC-Irvine (22-10, 13-3 Big West), .078 / Best Win: at Hawaii .54
- MEAC / #110 North Carolina Central (25-5, 15-1 MEAC), .066 / Best Win: at N.C. State .60
- NORTHEAST / #136 Robert Morris (21-12, 16-2 Northeast), .034 / Best Win: at St. Francis-NY .46
- WAC / #147 Utah Valley (19-10, 13-3 WAC), .023 / Best Win: New Mexico State .43
- HORIZON / #148 Wright State (20-13, 12-6 Horizon), .023 / Best Win: at Cleveland State .62
- SOUTHERN / #157 Wofford (19-12, 13-5 Southern), .018 / Best Win: vs. Winthrop .47
- AMERICA EAST / #162 Stony Brook (23-9, 15-3 America East), .010 / Best Win: vs. Vermont .38
- BIG SKY / #165 Weber State (17-11, 14-6 Big Sky), .009 / Best Win: North Dakota .29
- BIG SOUTH / #168 Coastal Carolina (21-12, 14-5 Big South), .008 / Best Win: at Radford .45
- SWAC / #251 Texas Southern (16-14, 12-6 SWAC), -.068 / Best Win; vs. Southern U. .49
#KPI NIT Tournament Field of 32 (through March 9): Automatic bids are awarded to teams who won their regular season conference title, but did not win their conference tournament.
- (NIT 1) #51 Tennessee (20-11, 11-7 SEC), .157 / Best Win: vs. Virginia .69
- (NIT 1) OHIO VALLEY / #52 Belmont (24-9, 15-3 OVC), .153 / Best Win: at Middle Tennessee .78
- (NIT 1) #53 SMU (23-8, 12-6 American), .152 / Best Win: at Connecticut .85
- (NIT 1) #54 Missouri (21-10, 9-9 SEC), .151 / Best Win: at Arkansas .66
- (NIT 2) #55 Arkansas (21-10, 10-8 SEC), .148 / Best Win: at Kentucky .76
- (NIT 2) #56 Florida State (18-12, 9-9 ACC), .148 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .76
- (NIT 2) #58 Minnesota (19-12, 8-10 Big Ten), .145 / Best Win: vs. Wisconsin .62
- (NIT 2) #59 Xavier (20-11, 10-8 Big East), .144 / Best Win: vs. Cincinnati .79
- (NIT 3) #60 Illinois (18-13, 7-11 Big Ten), .144 / Best Win: at Michigan State .83
- (NIT 3) #61 St. John’s (20-11, 10-8 Big East), .136 / Best Win: at Providence .63
- (NIT 3) #62 St. Mary’s-CA (22-10, 12-7 WCC), .134 / Best Win: at Boise State .57
- (NIT 3) #63 Providence (20-11, 10-8 Big East), .132 / Best Win: vs. Creighton .60
- (NIT 4) #66 Ohio (21-10, 11-7 MAC), .132 / Best Win: at Akron .63
- (NIT 4) #65 N.C. State (19-12, 9-9 ACC), .132 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .77
- (NIT 4) #66 Georgetown (17-13, 8-10 Big East), .131 / Best Win: vs. VCU .65
- (NIT 4) #67 Middle Tennessee (23-8, 13-3 C-USA), .123 / Best Win: vs. Southern Miss .61
- (NIT 5) #68 Manhattan (24-7, 17-5 MAAC), .118 / Best Win: at Canisius .56
- (NIT 5) #69 San Francisco (21-10, 14-5 WCC), .118 / Best Win: vs. St. Mary’s-CA .43
- (NIT 5) #71 Clemson (19-11, 10-8 ACC), .115 / Best Win: at Florida State .59
- (NIT 5) #73 New Mexico State (23-9, 12-4 WAC), .114 / Best Win: at New Mexico .88
- (NIT 6) #74 LSU (18-12, 9-9 SEC), .112 / Best Win: vs. Saint Joseph’s .59
- (NIT 6) #75 West Virginia (17-14, 9-9 Big 12), .110 / Best Win: at Baylor .68
- (NIT 6) #76 Utah (20-10, 9-9 Pac-12), .107 / Best Win: at California .59
- (NIT 6) #77 Richmond (18-13, 8-8 A-10), .107 / Best Win: at William & Mary .56
- (NIT 7) #78 Maryland (17-14, 9-9 ACC), .105 / Best Win: vs. Virginia .57
- (NIT 7) #79 Georgia (18-12, 12-6 SEC), .104 / Best Win: at Missouri .67
- (NIT 7) #80 Cleveland State (21-11, 12-5 Horizon), .103 / Best Win: at Milwaukee .57
- (NIT 7) #83 UTEP (22-9, 12-4 C-USA), .100 / Best Win: at Middle Tennessee .77
- (NIT 8) AMERICA EAST / #112 Vermont (22-10, 16-2 America East), .061 / Best Win: vs. Yale .41
- (NIT 8) SOUTHERN / #130 Davidson (20-12, 16-2 Southern), .042 / Best Win: at Wofford .53
- (NIT 8) ATLANTIC SUN / #145 Florida Gulf Coast (22-12, 16-5 Atlantic Sun), .024 / Best Win: at Mercer .49
- (NIT 8) BIG SOUTH / #169 High Point (16-14, 12-5 Big South), .007 / Best Win: at William & Mary .56
Top 10 #KPI Wins – ROAD GAMES ONLY (through games of March 9, 2014)
- +1.09 #9 Creighton 96, #6 Villanova 68 (Jan 20)
- +0.98 #1 Arizona 69, #14 San Diego State 60 (Nov 14)
- +0.94 #4 Wisconsin 48, #10 Virginia 38 (Dec 4)
- +0.93 #125 Northwestern 65, #4 Wisconsin 56 (Jan 29)
- +0.93 #118 Georgia Tech 67, #8 Syracuse 62 (Mar 4)
- +0.92 #211 Boston College 62, #8 Syracuse 59 (Feb 19)
- +0.92 #195 Duquesne 71, #12 Saint Louis 64 (Feb 27)
- +0.91 #7 Michigan 77, #4 Wisconsin 70 (Jan 18)
- +0.91 #40 Memphis 73, #13 Louisville 67 (Jan 9)
- +0.90 #151 Yale 74, #33 Harvard 67 (Feb 8)
Top 10 #KPI Wins – NEUTRAL SITE GAMES ONLY (through games of March 9, 2014)
- +0.79 #59 Xavier 64, #16 Cincinnati 47 (Dec 14)
- +0.74 #3 Kansas 80, #15 New Mexico 63 (Dec 14)
- +0.73 #17 Massachusetts 81, #15 New Mexico 65 (Nov 22)
- +0.73 #4 Wisconsin 63, #12 Saint Louis 57 (Nov 26)
- +0.72 #22 North Carolina 93, #13 Louisville 84 (Nov 24)
- +0.71 #31 George Washington 60, #9 Creighton 53 (Dec 1)
- +0.71 #56 Florida State 85, #18 VCU 67 (Nov 21)
- +0.70 #47 Kansas State 72, #27 Gonzaga 62 (Dec 21)
- +0.69 #14 San Diego State 86, #9 Creighton 80 (Nov 29)
- +0.69 #37 Oklahoma State 70, #57 Louisiana Tech 55 (Dec 14)
Top 10 #KPI Wins – HOME GAMES ONLY (through games of March 9, 2014)
- +0.70 #13 Louisville 69, #41 Southern Miss 38 (Nov 29)
- +0.70 #9 Creighton 101, #6 Villanova 80 (Feb 16)
- +0.70 #8 Syracuse 78, #6 Villanova 62 (Dec 28)
- +0.69 #15 New Mexico 58, #14 San Diego State 44 (Feb 22)
- +0.69 #4 Wisconsin 59, #2 Florida 53 (Nov 12)
- +0.69 #51 Tennessee 87, #10 Virginia 52 (Dec 30)
- +0.68 #10 Virginia 75, #8 Syracuse 56 (Mar 1)
- +0.67 #25 Oregon 64, #1 Arizona 57 (Mar 8)
- +0.66 #29 Connecticut 65, #2 Florida 64 (Dec 2)
- +0.65 #53 SMU 76, #16 Cincinnati 55 (Feb 8)
#KPI Numbers
- The current adjustments are +0.15 for road teams, -0.16 for home teams and -0.04 for neutral site teams. The average win is worth +0.20. The average loss is worth -0.20.
- Scoring (by conference, all games): 1-Big 12 (75.5 PPG); 2-Ohio Valley (74.5 PPG); 3-Pac-12 (74.4 PPG); 4-Big South (74.0 PPG); 5-WCC (74.0 PPG); 6-Big East (73.2 PPG); 7-Southland (72.9 PPG); 8-American (72.9 PPG); 9-MAAC (72.9 PPG); 10-Atlantic Sun (72.1 PPG)
- Scoring (by conference, conference games and conference tournament games only): 1-Ohio Valley (75.4 PPG); 2-Big South (74.4 PPG); 3-MAAC (73.5 PPG); 4-Southland (73.2 PPG); 5-Big 12 (73.0 PPG); 6-Atlantic Sun (72.6 PPG); 7-Northeast (71.7 PPG); 8-Big East (71.1 PPG); 9-WCC (71.0 PPG); 10-Pac-12 (70.9 PPG)
- Home teams are 3,509-1,683 (.676). There have been 417 games (7.4% of all games) played at a neutral site, including conference tournaments. 55.2% of all games are conference games or conference tournament games to date.
- Non-Conference #KPI: 1-Wisconsin; 2-Arizona; 3-Wichita State; 4-Massachusetts; 5-Oregon; 6-Kansas, 7-Syracuse; 8-Iowa State; 9-Ohio State; 10-Villanova
- Conference + Conference Tournament #KPI: 1-Michigan; 2-Florida; 3-Arizona; 4-Virginia; 5-Kansas; 6-Villanova; 7-Saint Louis; 8-Wichita State; 9-Louisville; 10-Creighton
- #KPI in Home Games Only: 1-Kansas, 2-Duke; 3-Florida; 4-Arizona; 5-VCU; 6-Creighton; 7-Iowa State; 8-Colorado; 9-Kentucky; 10-Texas
- #KPI in Road/Neutral Games Only: 1-Arizona; 2-Wisconsin; 3-Wichita State; 4-Villanova; 5-Syracuse; 6-Michigan; 7-Florida; 8-Saint Louis; 9-San Diego State; 10-Virginia
- #KPI Only in Top-25 Games: 1-Wichita State (1-0); 2-Louisiana Tech (1-0); 3-Charlotte (1-0); 4-Arizona (5-1); 5-Creighton (2-1); 6-Wisconsin (5-2); 7-Kansas (6-3); 8-San Diego State (3-2); 9-Massachusetts (2-1); 10-Michigan (4-4)
- #KPI Only in Top-50 Games: 1-Wichita State (2-0); 2-East Tennessee State (1-0); 3-Northern Colorado (1-0); 4-Wisconsin (8-3); 5-Arizona (11-3); 6-Creighton (6-2); 7-Syracuse (7-2); 8-San Diego State (3-2); 9-Cincinnati (6-3); 10-Florida (4-2)
- #KPI Only in Top-100 Games: 1-Wichita State (7-0); 2-Arizona (16-3); 3-Syracuse (14-2); 4-Florida (14-2); 5-Villanova (15-3); 6-San Diego State (9-2); 7-Wisconsin (17-5); 8-Louisville (6-5); 9-Saint Louis (8-4); 10-Michigan (14-6)
- #KPI Strength of Schedule (with Home/Away adjustment): 1-Kansas (.128); 2-Boston College (.091); 3-Wisconsin (.085); 4-Michigan (.084); 5-Florida State (.079); 6-Texas Tech (.079); 7-Michigan State (.075); 8-Iowa State (.075); 9-Georgetown (.074); 10-Stanford (.073)
- 7.8% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non-Division I teams. Division I teams are 425-14 (.968) in those games by a margin of 90.2 PPG to 60.5 PPG. Non-Division I games also count in the #KPI rankings. All games against Non-Division I teams count as one opponent (currently No. 349 in the #KPI).
#KPI Top Games for Monday, March 3:
- #62 St. Mary’s-CA vs. #27 Gonzaga (Monday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
- #69 San Francisco vs. #38 BYU (Monday 11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
- #68 Manhattan vs. #70 Iona (Monday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
- #116 Denver vs. #36 North Dakota State (Monday 7 p.m. ET, FOX College Sports)
- #129 William & Mary vs. #84 Delaware (Monday 7 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network)
- #196 Western Carolina vs. #157 Wofford (Monday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Notes on Rule Changes: Note that any discrepancy between #KPI and NCAA data is how games against Non Division-I schools are counted (approximately 3.9% of the data)
Points Per Game: Up 4.9% (3.27 PPG); from 67.5 PPG to 70.8 PPG. Through this time last season, teams were averaging 67.2 PPG (up 5.3% this year over the same time period). This is the highest scoring average since 2001-02 (71.26 PPG). Points Per Possession have increased at a rate of 3.1%. In 2012-13, scoring decreased 0.9 PPG (1.3%) between non-conference and conference play. In 2013-14, scoring has decreased 2.4 PPG (3.3%) from 72.1 PPG in non-conference to 69.7 PPG in conference.
In 2012-13, 52.3% of points came from made 2-pt FGs, 27.4% from made 3-pt FGs and 20.3% from made free throws. In 2013-14, 51.2% of points have come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.8% from made 3-pt FGs and 22.0% from made free throws. The net increase is +0.92 points from made 2′s, +0.46 points from made 3′s and +1.88 points from made free throws. In conference games only this year, 50.8% of points come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.9% from made 3′s and 22.2% from made free throws.
Average Margin Per Game: +13.1 PPG: The average margin in 2012-13 was +13.1 PPG.. The average margin in non-conference play is 16.3 PPG compared to 10.6 PPG in conference play. 26.4% of games have been decided by 5 points or less, 50.4% of games have been decided by 10 points or less and 19.2% of games have been decided by more than 20 points.
Possessions Per Game: Up 1.7% (1.11 possession per game); from 66.7 to 67.8 possessions per game per team. Possessions are 2.84 possessions per game lower (down 4.1%) in conference play than non-conference play this year.
Field Goal Attempts: Up 1.0% (0.58 FGA per game); from 55.0 to 55.6 FGA: Team field goal percentage is at 44.0%, up from 43.3% last year. Field goals made are up 2.6% (0.61 per game). Field goal attempts are at their highest mark since 2009-10 (55.7 FGA/game). Teams are attempting 2.32 fewer field goals in conference play than non-conference (down 4.1%), but FGAs are only down 0.02% per possession in conference play.
3-pt Field Goal Attempts: Up 1.3% (0.24 3-ptA per game); from 18.1 to 18.4 3-ptA: 3-pt field goal percentage is at 34.5%, up from 34.1% last year. 3-pt field goal attempts are at their highest number since an all-time high in 2007-08 (19.1 per game).
Free Throw Attempts: Up 13.1% (2.59 FTA per game); from 19.76 to 22.35 FTA: Team free throw percentage is at 69.7% (69.3% last year). Teams are making 1.88 more free throws per game this year (up 13.7%). Free throw attempts are at their highest mark since 2000-01 (22.40 FTA/game). Free Throw Attempts fell from 23.5 in November to 21.9 in December, rose to 22.3 per game in January and settled at 21.7 per game in February.
Turnovers: Down 5.8% (0.77 turnovers per game); 13.3 to 12.5 turnovers: Turnovers per possession are down 7.3% while steals per possession are down 9.0%. More plays that used to be steals/turnovers are being called fouls.
Personal Fouls: Up 8.6% (1.51 fouls per game); 17.68 to 19.21 fouls: Personal fouls are at their highest mark since 2000-01 (19.92 fouls per game). Fouls per possession are up 6.8%. Fouls are down 2.8% per possession from non-conference to conference this season.
Comparative analysis includes data from all games involving Division-I teams for the 2013-14 season. Historical data is courtesy of the NCAA and can be found here.
This is the #KPI