WEEK 18 SUNDAY #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 3/16/14, 7am ET)

Happy Selection Sunday!  There is a lot of data to dig through below.  Anecdotes throughout Sunday can be found on Twitter at @KPIsports (though I’ll be slightly preoccupied during the Big Ten Tournament championship game at 3:30 p.m. ET).  Thank you for following along!

The #KPI Excel file is now online to customize: http://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/full-kpi-thru-3-15-14.xlsx.  Eat your heart out.

#KPI Headlines:

  • Full #KPI data (by team) as of Sunday 7 a.m. ET.  #KPI data (by conference) also exists as of Sunday morning.
  • Pay attention to the #KPI value more than the ranking as we approach the Selection Show.  For example, Nebraska (No. 51) is in nearly a dead tie for one of the final at-large spots as of Sunday mornings.  There are several clusters among seeding, including a group of six teams separated by .005 and a group of five teams separated by .002.
  • 16 conference tournaments have been won by someone other than the No. 1 seed.  Five more will play Sunday.  The Atlantic 10 No. 1 seed (Saint Louis) was eliminated, meaning the total will hit at least 17 of the 31 conference tournaments.
  • As in past years, conference tournament scoring trended downward from regular season numbers.  Week 19 (Mar 10-16) produced a season-low 67.4 PPG (up from 66.9 PPG during Week 19 in 2012-13).  The previous low this year was 68.9 PPG (Jan 13-19).  Possessions per game were at a season-low 64.7 per game.  Field goal attempts (53.8), 3-pt attempts (17.7), steals (5.6) and turnovers (11.4) were at season low averages this week.

Bracket Trends to Look For:

  • Florida is likely the No. 1 seed in the South (Orlando/Memphis), Arizona the No. 1 in the West (San Diego/Anaheim) and Wichita State the No. 1 in the Midwest (St. Louis/Indianapolis). The fourth one seed (likely headed to the East Region at Madison Square Garden) could create the need for a contingency bracket based on the result of the Big Ten championship game.
  • Look for Florida and Wichita State to play the winner of the play-in games.  Florida would play the winner of Tuesday’s early game Thursday in Orlando while Wichita State would play the winner of Wednesday’s first round game Friday in St. Louis.  The fourth number one seed could play this group if the committee prefers the geography of Milwaukee.  The 16 seeds likely to play in Dayton are Albany, Cal Poly, Mount St. Mary’s and Texas Southern.
  • With a few new bracketing principles this year, look for seeding to be more in line with what people project (since there will be fewer seed line adjustments for bracketing).  Also, look for geography to play a bigger role in regional placement without conference matchups happening all that early, all that often.
  • There are no bid stealers left to play in any of Sunday’s games.  The only question remaining relative to who is in the field comes from the Sun Belt championship (Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Georgia State).  Look for Georgia State in the No. 13 seed range with a win.  If ULL wins, they could fall closer to a low No. 14/high No. 15 seed.
  • Much like Middle Tennessee in 2013, there may be a team from a non-power conference who plays in Dayton on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Southern Miss, Toledo and Louisiana Tech each won 27 games.  Green Bay won 24 games, including a home win over ACC regular season champion Virginia.  The #KPI likes teams who win 27 games and as a result the formula is more likely to miss on a few of those teams.  Some of the power conference teams at the top of the pile on the NIT list are very much in play for NCAA Tournament bids based on the math.
  • The first round games for at-large teams are likely to fall one each at the 11 and 12 seed lines.  The 12 seed will feed into the one 4/5 bracket that doesn’t play the first weekend out west (2 pods in Spokane, 1 pod in San Diego) while the other will play on the 11 seed line to avoid a western travel schedule.
  • Look for the 4/5 and 3/6 pods to be filled by a lot of Spokane and San Antonio.  There could be a left over spot from San Diego, Buffalo and Orlando as well.  Raleigh (Virginia/Duke), Milwaukee (Michigan/Wisconsin) and St. Louis (Wichita State/Kansas) are likely to have pods with higher seeds.
  • Including Green Bay and Belmont, there are 11 automatic qualifiers into the NIT (leaving only 21 at-large teams).  There will likely be several high profile schools left out of the NIT that will draw people’s attention.
  • Games missed by key players will be a hot topic Sunday night for several teams – including some players who may not participate in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Another hot topic: winning and losing streaks.  Several teams had significant winning and losing streaks that produced several outlier results based on #KPI data.
  • The Big 12 is likely to get 7 of 10 teams (70%) into the NCAA Tournament field.  It could also be a big day for the Atlantic 10.

#KPI NCAA Tournament Field of 68 (as of Sunday, March 16, 7 a.m. ET): Automatic bids from the 32 conferences are determined by the top remaining seed if the AQ has not already been decided.  This list is comprised purely by math with no scrubbing.

  1. #1 Arizona (30-4, 17-4 Pac-12), .363
  2. SEC / #2 Florida (31-2, 20-0 SEC), .342
  3. MVC / #3 Wichita State (34-0, 21-0 MVC), .322
  4. #4 Kansas (24-9, 15-5 Big 12), .315
  5. #5 Wisconsin (26-7, 13-7 Big Ten), .313
  6. #6 Villanova (28-4, 16-3 Big East), .297
  7. BIG TEN / #7 Michigan (25-7, 17-3 Big Ten), .288
  8. ACC / #8 Virginia (27-6, 18-2 ACC), .280
  9. #9 Duke (26-7, 15-5 ACC), .268
  10. MOUNTAIN WEST / #10 New Mexico (27-6, 18-3 Mountain West), .264
  11. BIG 12 / #11 Iowa State (26-7, 14-7 Big 12), .262
  12. #12 Creighton (26-7, 16-5 Big East), .260
  13. #13 Syracuse (27-5, 14-5 ACC), .259
  14. ATLANTIC 10 / #14 VCU (26-7, 14-4 A-10), .258
  15. AMERICAN / #15 Louisville (29-5, 18-3 American), .255
  16. PAC-12 /#16 UCLA (26-8, 15-6 Pac-12), .254
  17. #17 San Diego State (29-4, 18-3 Mountain West), .249
  18. #18 Michigan State (25-8, 14-6 Big Ten), .242
  19. #19 Ohio State (25-9, 12-9 Big Ten), .233
  20. #20 Kentucky (24-9, 14-6 SEC), .231
  21. #21 Massachusetts (24-8, 11-7 A-10), .230
  22. #22 Cincinnati (27-6, 16-4 American), .230
  23. #23 Saint Louis (26-6, 13-4 A-10), .229
  24. WCC / #24 Gonzaga (28-6, 18-3 WCC), .228
  25. #25 Connecticut (26-8, 14-7 American), .224
  26. #26 North Carolina (23-9, 13-6 ACC), .220
  27. #27 Oklahoma (23-9, 12-7 Big 12), .214
  28. #28 Oregon (23-9, 11-9 Pac-12), .212
  29. #29 Baylor (24-11, 12-10 Big 12), .206
  30. #30 George Washington (24-8, 12-6 A-10), .204
  31. #31 Texas (23-10, 12-8 Big 12), .198
  32. SUMMIT / #32 North Dakota State (25-6, 14-2 Summit), .195
  33. #33 Pittsburgh (25-9, 13-8 ACC), .191
  34. IVY / #34 Harvard (26-4, 13-1 Ivy), .187
  35. #35 Saint Joseph’s (23-9, 13-5 A-10), .187
  36. SOUTHLAND / #36 Stephen F. Austin (31-2, 20-0 Southland), .186
  37. #37 Dayton (23-10, 11-7 A-10), .186
  38. #38 Southern Miss (27-6, 14-4 C-USA), .185
  39. #38 BYU (23-11, 15-6 WCC), .179
  40. #40 Toledo (27-6, 15-5 MAC), .177
  41. #41 Colorado (23-11, 12-9 Pac-12), .176
  42. #42 Stanford (21-12, 12-9 Pac-12), .175
  43. #43 Memphis (23-9, 12-7 American), .168
  44. #44 Oklahoma State (21-12, 9-11 Big 12), .164
  45. #45 Green Bay (24-6, 14-3 Horizon), .164
  46. BIG EAST /#46 Providence (23-11, 13-8 Big East), .161
  47. #47 Louisiana Tech (27-7, 15-4 C-USA), .159
  48. #48 Arizona State (21-11, 10-9 Pac-12), .153
  49. #49 Kansas State (20-12, 10-9 Big 12), .151
  50. #50 Belmont (24-9, 15-3 OVC), .151
  51. MAC / #63 Western Michigan (23-9, 16-4 MAC), .130
  52. MAAC / #65 Manhattan (25-7, 18-5 MAAC), .130
  53. SUN BELT / #68 Georgia State (25-7, 18-1 Sun Belt), .122
  54. WAC / #70 New Mexico State (26-9, 14-4 WAC), .117
  55. CONFERENCE USA / #71 Tulsa (21-12, 16-3 C-USA), .115
  56. COLONIAL / #76 Delaware (25-9, 17-2 Colonial), .109
  57. ATLANTIC SUN / #84 Mercer (26-8, 17-4 Atlantic Sun), .100
  58. OHIO VALLEY / #91 Eastern Kentucky (24-9, 14-5 OVC), .089
  59. MEAC / #98 North Carolina Central (28-5, 18-1 MEAC), .079
  60. PATRIOT / #123 American (20-12, 16-5 Patriot), .048
  61. HORIZON / #130 Milwaukee (21-13, 11-9 Horizon), .042
  62. SOUTHERN / #147 Wofford (20-12, 14-5 Southern), .026
  63. BIG SKY / #153 Weber State (19-11, 16-6 Big Sky), .022
  64. BIG SOUTH / #165 Coastal Carolina (21-12, 14-5 Big South), .010
  65. AMERICA EAST / #187 Albany (18-14, 12-7 America East), -.011
  66. BIG WEST / #223 Cal Poly (13-19, 9-10 Big West), -.041
  67. NORTHEAST / #234 Mount St. Mary’s (16-16, 12-7 Northeast), -.050
  68. SWAC / #235 Texas Southern (19-14, 15-6 SWAC), -.052

#KPI NIT Tournament Field of 32 (as of Sunday, March 16, 7 a.m. ET): Automatic bids are awarded to teams who won their regular season conference title, but did not win their conference tournament.

  1. #51 Nebraska (19-12, 11-8 Big Ten), .151
  2. #52 Tennessee (21-12, 12-8 SEC), .149
  3. #53 N.C. State (21-13, 11-10 ACC), .148
  4. #54 California (19-13, 10-9 Pac-12), .147
  5. #55 Florida State (19-13, 10-10 ACC), .147
  6. #56 Iowa (20-12, 9-10 Big Ten), .146
  7. #57 Missouri (22-11, 10-10 SEC), .146
  8. #58 Xavier (21-12, 11-9 Big East), .141
  9. #59 Illinois (19-14, 8-12 Big Ten), .139
  10. #60 Minnesota (20-13, 9-11 Big Ten), .138
  11. #61 SMU (23-9, 12-7 American), .136
  12. #62 St. Mary’s-CA (22-11, 12-8 WCC), .130
  13. #64 Arkansas (21-11, 10-9 SEC), .130
  14. #66 St. John’s (20-12, 10-9 Big East), .129
  15. #67 Ohio (23-11, 13-8 MAC), .122
  16. #69 Middle Tennessee (24-9, 14-4 C-USA), .118
  17. #72 Clemson (20-12, 11-9 ACC), .113
  18. MAAC / #73 Iona (22-10, 19-4 MAAC), .113
  19. #74 Georgetown (17-14, 8-11 Big East), .113
  20. #75 San Francisco (21-11, 14-6 WCC), .111
  21. #77 Utah (21-11, 10-10 Pac-12), .108
  22. #78 Richmond (19-14, 9-9 A-10), .104
  23. #79 Georgia (19-13, 13-7 SEC), .103
  24. #80 Cleveland State (21-11, 12-5 Horizon), .103
  25. PATRIOT / #87 Boston U. (24-10, 17-4 Patriot), .095
  26. AMERICA EAST / #105 Vermont (22-10, 16-2 America East), .066
  27. BIG WEST / #110 UC-Irvine (23-11, 14-4 Big West), .062
  28. SOUTHERN / #126 Davidson (20-12, 16-2 Southern), .044
  29. ATLANTIC SUN / #149 Florida Gulf Coast (22-12, 16-5 Atlantic Sun), .025
  30. NORTHEAST / #150 Robert Morris (21-13, 16-3 Northeast), .024
  31. WAC / #159 Utah Valley (20-11, 14-4 WAC), .014
  32. BIG SOUTH / #163 High Point (16-14, 12-5 Big South), .010

Top 10 #KPI Wins – ROAD GAMES ONLY (through games of March 15, 2014)

  1. +1.07     #12 Creighton 96, #6 Villanova 68 (Jan 20)
  2. +0.97     #5 Wisconsin 48, #8 Virginia 38 (Dec 4)
  3. +0.96     #1 Arizona 69, #17 San Diego State 60 (Nov 14)
  4. +0.92     #43 Memphis 73, #15 Louisville 67 (Jan 9)
  5. +0.91     #115 Northwestern 65, #5 Wisconsin 56 (Jan 29)
  6. +0.91     #5 Wisconsin 75, #7 Michigan 62 (Feb 16)
  7. +0.91     #148 Yale 74, #34 Harvard 67 (Feb 8)
  8. +0.91     #125 Georgia Tech 67, #13 Syracuse 62 (Mar 4)
  9. +0.90     #70 New Mexico State 67, #10 New Mexico 61 (Dec 17)
  10. +0.90     #22 Cincinnati 69, #15 Louisville 66 (Jan 30)

Top 10 #KPI Wins - NEUTRAL SITE GAMES ONLY (through games of March 15, 2014)

  1. +0.76     #16 UCLA 75, #1 Arizona 71 (Mar 15)
  2. +0.76     #4 Kansas 80, #10 New Mexico 63 (Dec 14)
  3. +0.75     #58 Xavier 64, #22 Cincinnati 47 (Dec 14)
  4. +0.75     #21 Massachusetts 81, #10 New Mexico 65 (Nov 22)
  5. +0.74     #10 New Mexico 64, #17 San Diego State 58 (Mar 15)
  6. +0.73     #26 North Carolina 93, #15 Louisville 84 (Nov 24)
  7. +0.72     #131 Seton Hall 64, #4 Villanova 63 (Mar 13)
  8. +0.72     #55 Florida State 85, #14 VCU 67 (Nov 21)
  9. +0.71     #47 Louisiana Tech 88, #38 Southern Miss 70 (Mar 14)
  10. +0.71     #49 Kansas State 72, #24 Gonzaga 62 (Dec 21)

Top 10 #KPI Wins - HOME GAMES ONLY (through games of March 9, 2014)

  1. +0.71     #52 Tennessee 87, #8 Virginia 52 (Dec 30)
  2. +0.69     #5 Wisconsin 59, #2 Florida 53 (Nov 12)
  3. +0.69     #15 Louisville 69, #38 Southern Miss 38 (Nov 29)
  4. +0.68     #10 New Mexico 58, #17 San Diego State 44 (Feb 22)
  5. +0.68     #12 Creighton 101, #6 Villanova 80 (Feb 16)
  6. +0.67     #13 Syracuse 78, #6 Villanova 62
  7. +0.66     #28 Oregon 64, #1 Arizona 57 (Mar 8)
  8. +0.66     #25 Connecticut 65, #2 Florida 64 (Dec 2)
  9. +0.66     #31 Texas 72, #36 Stephen F. Austin 62 (Nov 15)
  10. +0.66     #8 Virginia 75, #13 Syracuse 56 (Mar 1)

Top 5 #KPI Outlier Games (through games of March 15, 2014)

  1. 0.95        #228 Boston College 62, #13 Syracuse 59 (Feb 19)
  2. 0.87        #318 Illinois-Chicago 80, #130 Milwaukee 58 (Feb 25)
  3. 0.85        #348 New Hampshire 73, #171 Stony Brook 69 (Feb 8)
  4. 0.84        #350 Non D-I/Metro State 83, #114 Canisius 69 (Nov 26)
  5. 0.81        #115 Northwestern 65, #5 Wisconsin 56 (Jan 29)

#KPI Numbers

  • The current adjustments are +0.15 for road teams, -0.16 for home teams and -0.04 for neutral site teams.  The average win is worth +0.20.  The average loss is worth -0.20.
  • Scoring (by conference, all games): 1-Big 12 (75.4 PPG); 2-Ohio Valley (74.5 PPG); 3-Big South (74.0 PPG); 4-Pac-12 (74.0 PPG); 5-WCC (73.9 PPG); 6-Big East (72.9 PPG); 7-MAAC (72.8 PPG); 8-Southland (72.8 PPG); 9-American (72.6 PPG); 10-Atlantic Sun (72.1 PPG)
  • Scoring (by conference, conference games and conference tournament games only): 1-Ohio Valley (75.4 PPG); 2-Big South (74.4 PPG); 3-MAAC (73.5 PPG); 4-Big 12 (73.1 PPG); 5-Southland (72.9 PPG); 6-Atlantic Sun (72.6 PPG); 7-Northeast (71.8 PPG); 8-WCC (71.0 PPG); 9-Big East (70.7 PPG); 10-Sun Belt (70.7 PPG)
  • Home teams are 3,518-1,691 (.675). There have been 587 games (10.1% of all games) played at a neutral site, including conference tournaments.  56.7% of all games are conference games or conference tournament games to date.
  • Non-Conference #KPI: 1-Wisconsin; 2-Arizona; 3-Wichita State; 4-Massachusetts; 5-Oregon; 6-Kansas; 7-Syracuse; 8-Ohio State; 9-Iowa State; 10-Villanova
  • Conference + Conference Tournament #KPI: 1-Florida; 2-Michigan; 3-Arizona; 4-Virginia; 5-Kansas; 6-Villanova; 7-UCLA; 8-Wichita State; 9-Louisville; 10-VCU
  • #KPI in Home Games Only: 1-Kansas; 2-Duke; 3-Florida; 4-Arizona; 5-VCU; 6-Creighton; 7-Kentucky; 8-Iowa State; 9-Colorado; 10-Villanova
  • #KPI in Road/Neutral Games Only: 1-Arizona; 2-Wisconsin; 3-Wichita State; 4-Florida; 5-Michigan; 6-Virginia; 7-Villanova; 8-Syracuse; 9-San Diego State; 10-Michigan State
  • #KPI Only in Top-25 Games: 1-Wichita State (1-0); 2-Arizona (4-1); 3-Charlotte (1-0); 4-Creighton (2-1); 5-Louisville (4-2); 6-Wisconsin (5-3); 7-Massachusetts (2-1); 8-Michigan (5-4); 9-Dayton (3-2); 10-North Carolina (4-3)
  • #KPI Only in Top-50 Games: 1-Wichita State (2-0); 2-East Tennessee State (1-0); 3-Northern Colorado (1-0); 4-Arizona (11-3); 5-Wisconsin (6-3); 6-Syracuse (6-2); 7-VCU (6-4); 8-Michigan (6-4); 9-Florida (4-2); 10-Milwaukee (2-2)
  • #KPI Only in Top-100 Games: 1-Wichita State (8-0); 2-Arizona (18-4); 3-Florida (16-2); 4-Villanova (14-3); 5-Syracuse (15-3); 6-Louisville (8-5); 7-San Diego State (10-3); 8-Wisconsin (17-6); 9-Michigan (17-3); 10-Gonzaga (10-4)
  • #KPI Strength of Schedule (with Home/Away adjustment): 1-Kansas (.128); 2-Wisconsin (.087); 3-Boston College (.087); 4-Michigan (.085); 5-Florida State (.083); 6-Iowa State (.079); 7-Texas Tech (.079); 8-Stanford (.076); 9-Northwestern (.075); 10-Michigan State (.074)
  • 7.6% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non-Division I teams.  Division I teams are 425-14 (.968) in those games by a margin of 90.2 PPG to 60.5 PPG.  Non-Division I games also count in the #KPI rankings.  All games against Non-Division I teams count as one opponent (currently No. 350 in the #KPI).

#KPI Games for Sunday, March 16:

  1. ACC Championship: #9 Duke vs. #8 Virginia (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  2. SEC Championship: #20 Kentucky vs. #2 Florida (Sunday 3:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  3. Big Ten Championship: #18 Michigan State vs. #7 Michigan (Sunday 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
  4. Atlantic 10 Championship: #35 Saint Joseph’s vs. #14 VCU (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS)
  5. Sun Belt Championship: #96 Louisiana-Lafayette vs. #68 Georgia State (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Notes on Rule ChangesNote that any discrepancy between #KPI and NCAA data is how games against Non Division-I schools are counted (approximately 3.8% of the data)

This is the #KPI

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2 Responses to WEEK 18 SUNDAY #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 3/16/14, 7am ET)

  1. Why is Texas an 8 seed? They finished tied with Iowa State (a 3 seed) for third in the toughest conference in the nation in the regular season. Is it their record in the last 10 games?

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  2. Pingback: #KPI Blog: Evaluating the #KPI | #KPI: Competition Analytics

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