Week 5 KPI Epilogue: “The Story Takes Shape”

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We make sense!

With most teams having played four games over the first five weeks, the rankings are making logical sense.  Florida State, UCLA, Oregon, Auburn, and Alabama round up the Top 5 in the current KPI Rankings not because of anything to do with last year, but because of their undefeated starts this year.

Data points have been established.  The SEC West is going to dominate the divisional rankings all year.  The ACC and Pac-12 have very balanced divisions.  Writing off the Big Ten was premature.  The separation between the Power 5 conferences and the Group of 5 is significant.

Some additional observations:

Undefeated:  There are 17 teams still unbeaten through five weeks.  The SEC has 5, Big 12 3, Pac-12 3, ACC 2, Big Ten 1 and Conference USA 1.  Independents BYU and Notre Dame round out the group.  Based on remaining head to head matchups, there can be no more than eight undefeated teams at the end of the season.

Rank High While Losing:  The highest ranked one loss teams are #8 USC (3-1), #15 LSU (4-1), #16 Michigan State (3-1), and #17 Missouri (3-1).  The highest ranked two loss teams are #19 South Carolina (3-2), #20 Arkansas (3-2), and #23 West Virginia (2-2).

Rank Low While Winning:  The lowest ranked undefeated teams are #28 Baylor (4-0), #27 Marshall (4-0), and #24 Notre Dame (4-0).  The lowest ranked one loss teams are #97 Temple (3-1), #82 Utah (3-1), and #72 Louisiana-Monroe (3-1).  Baylor’s strength of schedules is #122 through four games.

On The Road Again:  There were 24 teams who won a true road game, the most of any week this season.  FBS teams are 217-98 (.689) at home and 92-129 on the road (.416).  FCS teams are 6-88 (.064).

Quality Wins in College Station:  Texas A&M is the only school with multiple wins over the KPI Top 20 (at #19 South Carolina, vs. #20 Arkansas).  The Aggies also join UCLA and Maryland as the only teams with three road/neutral wins.  (Note that Maryland is the only team in the country with three true road wins).

Losing to Utah and Minnesota:  After banter between Brett McMurphy of ESPN.com and Jon Solomon of CBSSports.com, I did some research on how rare losing to Utah and Minnesota is in consecutive weeks.  Michigan became the first team to lose to the Gophers and Utes in consecutive weeks since Iowa (October 7-14, 1978).  There are 13 instances between 1978 and 2014 where a school played both in the same season, including Nebraska beating both in consecutive weeks September 16-23, 1989.  And yes, I know the parameters on this can be misleading!

High Scoring Games:  California’s 59-56 double overtime win over Colorado was the highest scoring game of the season, passing the 111 points scored by Eastern Washington-Washington on September 6 and North Carolina-East Carolina on September 20.  The highest scoring games over the last three years are:

  1. 133 Sept 29, 2012  West Virginia 70, Baylor 63
  2. 124 Nov 23, 2012  East Carolina 65, Marshall 59 (2 OT)
  3. 118 Nov 10, 2012  Georgia Tech 68, North Carolina 50
  4. 117 Nov 10, 2012  Louisiana Tech 62, Texas State 55
  5. 116 Oct 13, 2012  Texas A&M 59, Louisiana Tech 57
  6. 115 Oct 5, 2013  Baylor 73, West Virginia 42
  7. 115 Nov 23, 2013  Wyoming 59, Hawaii 56 (OT)
  8. 115 Sept 27, 2014 California 59, Colorado 56 (OT)
  9. 114 Oct 18, 2012  SMU 72, Houston 42
  10. 114 Nov 29, 2013  San Jose State 62, Fresno State 52

More on the SEC West vs. SEC East:  The EXPs formula currently projects that the SEC West will go 14-0 against the SEC East.  The differential between the SEC West KPI (.244) and the SEC East (.078) remains the largest gap between two divisions in the same conference by a wide margin.  The SEC West has 7 of the Top 20 teams, while the SEC makes up 45% of the Top 20 overall (Missouri and South Carolina join from the SEC East).  The strength of schedule numbers that will come from playing one another will allow the conference to dominate the top of the rankings and virtually guarantees at least one team in the playoff.  I know, duh.

Big Ten Rising, ACC Falling:  The Big Ten has gone 16-1 in non-conference games the last two weeks while the ACC has gone 7-8 in non-conference games over the same span.  The gap has closed in the conference rankings to where the Big Ten joins the Big 12 and ACC in a group competing for third behind the SEC and Pac-12.

The Group of 5:  Marshall is the only team from the Group of 5 still undefeated.  East Carolina is the only Group of 5 team in the KPI Top 25, while only three sit in the top 40:

  • 22. East Carolina (3-1)
  • 27. Marshall (4-0)
  • 40. Wyoming (3-2)
  • 43. Northern Illinois (3-1)
  • 44. Akron (2-2)

FCS Rankings:  Coastal Carolina is leading the FCS Rankings with a 5-0 record.  There are are nine FCS teams still unbeaten through five weeks, with Charleston Southern joining Coastal Carolina as the only 5-0 teams.

Looking Ahead:  Television selections for October 11 are due to be released Monday, but look for CBS and ESPN to put a six-day hold on the selections and choose them after Week 6 games are finished.  CBS has a doubleheader (Noon and 3:30 p.m. ET) while up to five games could be attractive (Auburn-Mississippi State, Alabama-Arkansas, Mississippi-Texas A&M, Georgia-Missouri, LSU-Florida).

Offensive DIFFs (Differential between points scored and opponent’s points allowed):

  1. +24.9 West Virginia
  2. +27.6 California
  3. +27.3 Baylor
  4. +26.6 Marshall
  5. +26.1 Michigan State

Defensive DIFFs (Differential between points allowed and opponent’s point scored):

  1. +17.5 Stanford
  2. +16.8 Auburn
  3. +16.7 Mississippi
  4. +15.5 Alabama
  5. +14.9 Texas

Combined Offensive and Defensive DIFFs (Averaging Offensive and Defensive DIFFs):

  1. +35.3 LSU
  2. +32.4 Oregon
  3. +32.0 Arkansas
  4. +31.6 Auburn
  5. +28.4 Baylor

SOS:  The top 10 strengths of schedule by KPI so far (home/away/neutral adjustments are included):

  1. .129 SMU
  2. .095 Rice
  3. .093 Texas-San Antonio
  4. .082 South Carolina
  5. .080 West Virginia
  6. .066 Florida Atlantic
  7. .064 Texas
  8. .063 Memphis
  9. .060 FCS Teams
  10. .060 Arkansas

Best Week 5 Wins by KPI Formula (2014 Data Only)

  1. +0.79 #1 Florida State 56, at #29 North Carolina State 41
  2. +0.71 #21 Stanford 20, at #30 Washington 13
  3. +0.65 #36 Northwestern 29, at #35 Penn State 6
  4. +0.60 #2 UCLA 62, at #65 Arizona State 27
  5. +0.54 #16 Michigan State 56, #40 Wyoming 14

Best Wins by KPI Formula – Full Season (2014 Data Only)

  1. +0.79 9/27       #1 Florida State 56, at #29 North Carolina State 41
  2. +0.78 9/20       #6 Mississippi State 34, at #15 LSU 29
  3. +0.71 9/20       #26 Indiana 31, at #17 Missouri 27
  4. +0.71 9/18       #4 Auburn 20, at #49 Kansas State 14
  5. +0.71 9/27       #21 Stanford 20, at #30 Washington 13
  6. +0.70 9/6         at #3 Oregon 46, #16 Michigan State 27
  7. +0.66 9/13       at #12 TCU 30, #45 Minnesota 7
  8. +0.66 9/13       #23 West Virginia 40, at #25 Maryland 37
  9. +0.65 9/27       #36 Northwestern 29, at #35 Penn State 6
  10. +0.64 9/20       at #20 Arkansas 52, #43 Northern Illinois 14

Most Valuable Week 5 Games by KPI Formula (2014 Data Only)

  1. 96.2% #1 Florida State 56, at #29 North Carolina State 41
  2. 95.7% #2 UCLA 62, at #65 Arizona State 27
  3. 93.6% at #9 Nebraska 45, #42 Illinois 14
  4. 86.2% #13 Texas A&M 35, #20 Arkansas 28 (OT)
  5. 85.6% at #16 Michigan State 56, #40 Wyoming 14

Most Valuable Games by KPI Formula – Full Season (2014 Data Only)

  1. 98.9% 9/6         at #3 Oregon 46, #16 Michigan State 27
  2. 96.9% 9/20       #6 Mississippi State 34, at #15 LSU 29
  3. 96.2% 9/27       #1 Florida State 56, at #29 North Carolina State 41
  4. 95.9% 9/13       at #3 Oregon 48, #40 Wyoming 14
  5. 95.7% 9/25       #2 UCLA 62, at #65 Arizona State 27

Outlier Week 5 Games by KPI Formula (2014 Data Only)

  1. 59.2% #36 Northwestern 29, at #35 Penn State 6
  2. 49.3% #56 Washington State 28, at #82 Utah 27
  3. 48.4% #44 Akron 21, at #68 Pittsburgh 10
  4. 47.7% #102 Florida International 34, at #109 UAB 20
  5. 46.0% #85 Rice 41, #96 Southern Miss 23

Outlier Games by KPI Formula – Full Season (2014 Data Only)

  1. 65.9% 9/13       #63 Iowa State 20, at #69 Iowa 17
  2. 60.3% 9/20       #26 Indiana 31, at #17 Missouri 27
  3. 59.2% 9/27       #36 Northwestern 29, at #35 Penn State 6
  4. 57.7% 9/20       #123 New Mexico 38, at #120 New Mexico State 35
  5. 55.9% 9/6         #111 Central Michigan 38, at #103 Purdue 17

Most Accurate Week 5 Games by Expected Margin and EXPs (2014 Data Only, Numbers signify difference between actual and expected margins)

  1. 1.5% at #47 Ohio State 50, #62 Cincinnati 28 (Expected score: OSU 51-28)
  2. 3.0% #78 Bowling Green 47, at #128 Massachusetts 42 (Expected score: BG 46-44)
  3. 6.5% at #16 Michigan State 56, #40 Wyoming 14 (Expected score: MSU 57-16)
  4. 10.1% at #75 Toledo 42, #111 Central Michigan 28 (Expected score: Toledo 49-29)
  5. 10.2% #24 Notre Dame 31, #58 Syracuse 15 (Expected score: ND 33-17)

TV Schedule: The following games with a 6-day network flex were confirmed.  The Pac-12 selections are expected early Sunday.

  • SMU at East Carolina: 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU
  • Memphis at Cincinnati: 7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
  • Utah at UCLA, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT, FOX OR 10:30 p.m. ET/7:30 p.m. PT, ESPN
  • Arizona State at USC, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT, FOX OR 10:30 p.m. ET/7:30 p.m. PT, ESPN
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