Week 6 KPI Epilogue: “M-I-S-S-I-S-S-I-P-P-I”

Posted on by

The week of college football lived up to the hype. Boy, did it ever.

The state of Mississippi was the center of the college football universe Saturday, and the two SEC schools from the state both beat top-10 foes on the same day for the first time ever. Next week, Mississippi State hosts Auburn in a matchup of the top two KPI teams.

More important than the quality of games (the average margin in Week 6 was 14.8 PPG, the best of any week this season and down from a season average of 20.6 PPG) was the separation now created in the data. Rather than relying on preseason data (the KPI rankings don’t!), we now have some tangible meaning to who is good and who has won quality games.

Remaining Unbeatens: There are now just ten unbeaten teams after Week 6.  Six of the teams are ranked in the KPI Top 7 (exceptions are #10 Georgia Tech, #12 Notre Dame, #20 Marshall, and #29 Baylor).  Based on remaining head-to-head matchups, no more than six teams can finish the season undefeated.  The KPI strength of schedule among the ten unbeaten teams is:

  • No. 29 SOS          #3 Mississippi
  • No. 35 SOS          #1 Auburn
  • No. 36 SOS          #2 Mississippi State
  • No. 56 SOS          #6 Arizona
  • No. 67 SOS          #7 Florida State
  • No. 70 SOS          #10 Georgia Tech
  • No. 77 SOS          #12 Notre Dame
  • No. 79 SOS          #4 TCU
  • No. 107 SOS        #20 Marshall
  • No. 114 SOS        #29 Baylor

Points in California:  Cal’s three Pac-12 conference games are among the top eight contests in combined points this season.  Their 60-59 win at Washington State on Saturday is the highest scoring game since East Carolina’s 65-59 2 OT win on November 23, 2012.

The Lowest Scoring Game Since:  Florida’s 10-9 win at Tennessee (19 combined points) was the lowest scoring game of the season.  It was the fewest points in a game since Michigan State’s 14-3 win over Minnesota on November 30, 2013.  A total of eight games combined for 17 points or fewer in 2013.

Pac-12 Parity: 11 of 12 Pac-12 teams have lost a conference game (and only four of 12 teams have played more than two conference games).  The only team unbeaten in conference play is Arizona (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12).  The leader in the Pac-12 North?  California (4-1, 2-1 Pac-12).  The Pac-12 is the second ranked conference by KPI, while the two individual divisions are both among the top four Power 5 divisions.

Surge in Evanston: Nobody has risen more in the KPI rankings in the last several weeks than #16 Northwestern (3-2, 2-0 Big Ten).  After consecutive home losses to #27 California (worth -.05) and #44 Northern Illinois (worth -.11) to start the season, the Wildcats won over #122 FCS/Western Illinois (worth +.00), at Penn State (worth +.79), and beat Wisconsin at home (worth +.29).

Road Warriors: Five teams are 3-0 in true road games this season:  Marshall, Baylor, Arizona State, Maryland, and South Alabama.  Road teams are a collective 119-253 (.320) including a 21-36 (.368) mark in Week 6.

First Win: On Saturday, Miami (OH) beat UMass for their first win since October 27, 2012 when they beat Ohio 23-20. The win broke the school’s 21-game losing streak.  There are five teams still winless this season:  SMU (0-5), Kent State (0-5), Troy (0-5), Idaho (0-5), and Massachusetts (0-6).

Group of 5 Rankings: The team ranked highest by the Selection Committee among Group of 5 teams will play in one of the major bowls:

  • #20 Marshall (5-0, 1-0 C-USA)
  • #30 Boise State (4-2, 2-1 Mountain West)
  • #35 East Carolina (4-1, 1-0 American)
  • #37 Memphis (3-2, 1-0 American)
  • #38 Air Force (4-1, 1-1 Mountain West)

FCS Rankings: Youngstown State rose to the top of the FCS Rankings this week by virtue their 14-7 road win at #19 Missouri State:

  1. Youngstown State (4-1)
  2. Coastal Carolina (6-0)
  3. Villanova (4-1)
  4. Yale (3-0)
  5. North Dakota State (5-0)

Offensive DIFFs (Differential between points scored and opponent’s points allowed):

  1. California, +27.3
  2. Marshall, +25.4
  3. Arkansas, +24.9
  4. Baylor, +23.6
  5. Michigan State, +22.4

Defensive DIFFs (Differential between points allowed and opponent’s points scored):

  1. Auburn, +20.8
  2. Mississippi, +18.9
  3. Stanford, +17.2
  4. Texas, +14.9
  5. Tennessee, +13.5

Combined Offensive and Defensive DIFFs (Averaging Offensive and Defensive DIFFs):

  1. Auburn, +39.4
  2. Mississippi State, +30.6
  3. Arkansas, +29.3
  4. Marshall, +28.5
  5. Oklahoma, +28.0

Strength of Schedule (The top SOS by KPI, including home/away/neutral adjustments):

  1. SMU, +.160
  2. Memphis, +.109
  3. Tennessee, +.101
  4. UCLA, +.098
  5. South Carolina, +.078
  6. Eastern Michigan, +.069
  7. Arkansas, +.066
  8. FCS Teams, +.063
  9. Kent State, +.059
  10. Oregon, +.056

Best Week 6 Wins by KPI Formula

  1. +.84       #6 Arizona 31, at #8 Oregon 24
  2. +.79       #31 Utah 30, at #5 UCLA 28
  3. +.75       at #2 Mississippi State 48, #22 Texas A&M 31
  4. +.72       #55 Utah State 35, at #47 BYU 20
  5. +.70       at #18 Clemson 41, #46 N.C. State 0

Best Wins by KPI Formula – Full Season

  1. +.84       #6 Arizona 31, at #8 Oregon 24 (October 2)
  2. +.79       #16 Northwestern 29, at #15 Penn State 6 (September 27)
  3. +.79       #31 Utah 30, at #5 UCLA 28 (October 4)
  4. +.78       at #8 Oregon 46, #9 Michigan State 27 (September 6)
  5. +.77       #5 UCLA 62, at #32 Arizona State 27 (September 25)
  6. +.75       #33 Indiana 31, at #13 Missouri 27 (September 20)
  7. +.75       at #4 TCU 30, #43 Minnesota 7 (September 13)
  8. +.75       at #2 Mississippi State 48, #22 Texas A&M 31 (October 4)
  9. +.72       #1 Auburn 20, at #52 Kansas State 14 (September 18)
  10. +.72       #55 Utah State 35, at #47 BYU 20 (October 3)

Most Valuable Week 6 Games by KPI Formula

  1. 98.7%    at #2 Mississippi State 48, #22 Texas A&M 31
  2. 97.7%    at #1 Auburn 41, #48 LSU 7
  3. 96.1%    at #4 TCU 37, #14 Oklahoma 33
  4. 96.1%    at #3 Mississippi 23, #11 Alabama 17
  5. 95.1%    #6 Arizona 31, at #8 Oregon 24

Most Valuable Games by KPI Formula – Full Season

  1. 98.7%    at #2 Mississippi State 48, #22 Texas A&M 31 (October 4)
  2. 97.8%    at #4 TCU 30, #43 Minnesota 7 (September 13)
  3. 97.7%    at #1 Auburn 41, #48 LSU 7 (October 4)
  4. 96.4%    #1 Auburn 20, at #52 Kansas State (September 18)
  5. 96.1%    at #4 TCU 37, #14 Oklahoma 33 (October 4)
  6. 96.1%    at #3 Mississippi 23, #11 Alabama 17 (October 4)
  7. 95.8%    #2 Mississippi State 34, at #48 LSU 29 (September 20)
  8. 95.1%    #6 Arizona 31, at #8 Oregon 24 (October 2)
  9. 93.9%    at #8 Oregon 46, #9 Michigan State 27 (September 6)
  10. 93.5%    at #6 Arizona 49, #27 California 45 (September 20)

Outlier Week 6 Games by KPI Formula

  1. 61.1%    #55 Utah State 35, at #47 BYU 20
  2. 60.3%    #31 Utah 30, at #5 UCLA 28
  3. 46.8%    #113 New Mexico 21, at #120 Texas-San Antonio 9
  4. 44.8%    #6 Arizona 31, at #8 Oregon 24
  5. 40.9%    #75 Purdue 38, at #73 Illinois 27

Outlier Games by KPI Formula – Full Season

  1. 71.5%    #61 Washington State 28, at #31 Utah 27 (September 27)
  2. 65.6%    #69 Iowa State 20, at #67 Iowa 17 (September 13)
  3. 65.6%    #122 FCS/Northwestern State 30, at #85 Louisiana Tech 27 (September 20)
  4. 61.9%    #120 Texas-San Antonio 27, at #119 Houston 7 (August 29)
  5. 61.1%    #55 Utah State 35, at #47 BYU 20 (October 3)
  6. 60.6%    #33 Indiana 31, at #13 Missouri 27 (September 20)
  7. 60.3%    #31 Utah 30, at #5 UCLA 28 (October 4)
  8. 57.7%    #16 Northwestern 29, at #15 Penn State 6 (September 27)
  9. 55.1%    #100 Central Michigan 38, at #75 Purdue 17 (September 6)
  10. 50.2%    at #126 Appalachian State 66, #122 FCS/Campbell 0 (September 6)

Most Accurate Week 6 Games by Expected Margin and EXPs (Numbers signify difference between actual and expected margins)

  1. 0.0%      at #12 Notre Dame 17, #45 Stanford 14 (Expected Score: Notre Dame 17-14)
  2. 5.6%      #68 Oregon State 36, at #92 Colorado 31 (Expected Score: Oregon State 33-32)
  3. 7.7%      #27 California 60, at #61 Washington State 59 (Expected Score: Washington State 60-52)
  4. 8.4%      at #72 Arkansas State 28, #82 Louisiana-Monroe 14 (Expected Score: Arkansas State 31-15)
  5. 8.5%      at #38 Air Force 30, #88 Navy 21 (Expected Score: Air Force 34-22)

TV Schedule: The following games with a 6-day network flex were confirmed.  The SEC is expected to make their selections for next week Sunday afternoon

  • TCU at Baylor: 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, ABC/ESPN2 Reverse Mirror
  • Louisville at Clemson: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU

The SEC games on 6-day pick ranked by G-Score:

  1. #1 Auburn at #2 Mississippi State (G-Score: 1.4)
  2. #3 Mississippi at #22 Texas A&M (G-Score: 13.8)
  3. #11 Alabama at #23 Arkansas (G-Score: 16.0)
  4. #36 Georgia at #13 Missouri (G-Score: 24.2)
  5. #48 LSU at #21 Florida (G-Score: 33.0)
Posted in Epilogue, KPI Sports and tagged .