Week 7 KPI Prologue: “2008 Time Machine”

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The College Football Playoff Committee is holding a media mock selection (the men’s basketball committee has done this for a few years now) and it just so happens that the KPI database has 2008 data.  So guess what?

We have 2008 KPI data for the mock selection committee.  Of course.

Three pages of data are now live (temporarily) at KPISports.net for the mock committee’s use:

The 2008 KPI rankings produced a top 4 of Oklahoma (12-1), Florida (12-1), Texas (11-1), and USC (11-1).  Three of the four teams are conference champions, while the Big 12 would have gotten two teams into the playoff strictly by the math.

2008 Group of 5 Rankings: The team ranked highest by the Selection Committee among Group of 5 teams will play in one of the major bowls.  Utah (12-0) was not in one of the power conferences in 2008 and was ranked the highest among such teams.  Boise State, who is still not in a power conference, was ranked No. 10 at 12-0.

2008 Offensive DIFFs (Differential between points scored and opponent’s points allowed):

  1. Oklahoma, +28.6
  2. Florida, +24.8
  3. Texas Tech, +19.6
  4. Tulsa, +18.1
  5. Penn State, +17.7

2008 Defensive DIFFs (Differential between points allowed and opponent’s points scored):

  1. USC, +17.6
  2. Texas, +15.6
  3. TCU, +14.4
  4. Boise State, +12.9
  5. Ohio State, +12.8

2008 Combined Offensive and Defensive DIFFs (Averaging Offensive and Defensive DIFFs):

  1. Florida, +36.4
  2. Oklahoma, +35.3
  3. Texas, +29.1
  4. USC, +29.1
  5. Penn State, +28.7

2008 Strength of Schedule (The top SOS by KPI, including home/away/neutral adjustments):

  1. Virginia, +.104
  2. Duke, +.084
  3. Wake Forest, +.083
  4. Miami (FL), +.079
  5. FCS Teams, +.079
  6. North Carolina State, +.073
  7. Baylor, +.072
  8. Washington, +.067
  9. Texas, +.067
  10. Syracuse, +.065

2008 Best Wins by KPI Formula – Full Season

  1. +1.02 at #4 USC 35, #7 Ohio State 3 (September 13)
  2. +1.02 at #1 Oklahoma 65, #6 Texas Tech 21 (November 22)
  3. +1.00 #7 Ohio State 45, at #19 Michigan State 7 (October 18)
  4. +.92 #27 Mississippi 31, at #2 Florida 30 (September 27)
  5. +.90 #5 Penn State 13, at #7 Ohio State 6 (October 25)
  6. +.88 #2 Florida 49, #14 Georgia 10 (November 1)
  7. +.88 at #1 Oklahoma 35, #16 TCU 10 (September 27)
  8. +.87 #3 Texas 45, #1 Oklahoma 35 (October 11)
  9. +.84 at #6 Texas Tech 39, #3 Texas 33 (November 1)
  10. +.84 #38 Connecticut 40, #15 Cincinnati 16 (October 25)

2008 Most Valuable Games by KPI Formula – Full Season

  1. 98.7% #2 Florida 31, #9 Alabama 20 (SEC Championship) (December 6)
  2. 98.3% at #1 Oklahoma 65, #6 Texas Tech 21 (November 22)
  3. 98.3% #2 Florida 49, #14 Georgia 10 (November 1)
  4. 98.1% at #1 Oklahoma 35, #16 TCU 10 (September 27)
  5. 98.0% #2 Florida 45, at #18 Florida State 9 (November 29)

2008 Outlier Games by KPI Formula – Full Season

  1. 81.2% #86 Bowling Green 27, at #11 Pittsburgh 17 (August 30)
  2. 77.3% #120 Miami (OH) 27, at #86 Bowling Green 20 (October 18)
  3. 75.6% #93 Michigan 29, at #60 Minnesota 6 (November 8)
  4. 74.9% #110 New Mexico State 48, at #56 Nevada 45 (October 11)
  5. 74.5% #107 Kent State 24, at #49 Buffalo 21 (November 28)

2008 Most Accurate Games by Expected Margin and EXPs (Numbers signify difference between actual and expected margins)

  1. 1.0% at #30 California 48, #117 Washington 7 (Expected Score: Cal 49-7)
  2. 1.1% at #103 Central Florida 31, #113 SMU 17 (Expected Score: UCF 31-17)
  3. 1.3% at #13 Georgia  Tech 31, #18 Florida State 28 (Expected Score: GT 31-28)
  4. 1.5% #52 Tulsa 56, at #121 North Texas 26 (Expected Score: Tulsa 56-27)
  5. 1.7% at #8 Utah 49, #67 Colorado State 16 (Expected Score: Utah 49-16)

Now.  Back to reality.  Back to Week 7 of 2014.

The top two teams in the 2014 KPI Rankings (Auburn and Mississippi State) will square off in Starkville as ESPN’s College Gameday returns to the state of Mississippi for the second consecutive week.  The resume boost for whoever wins the game will be enormous and likely catapult the winner atop the rankings.  The EXPs formula calls for an expected margin of 0.55 points, a virtual tie.  Should be a heck of a game.

Top 10 Games in Week 7, ranked by G-Score (entering Thursday’s games)

  1. #1 Auburn (5-0, 2-0 SEC) at #2 Mississippi State (5-0, 2-0 SEC): Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, CBS
  2. #8 Oregon (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12) at #5 UCLA (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12): Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT, FOX
  3. #3 Mississippi (5-0, 2-0 SEC) at #22 Texas A&M (5-1, 2-1 SEC): Saturday 9 p.m. ET/8 p.m. CT, ESPN
  4. #24 USC (3-2, 2-1 Pac-12) at #6 Arizona (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12): Saturday 10:30 p.m. ET/7:30 p.m. PT, ESPN2
  5. #11 Alabama (4-1, 1-1 SEC) at #23 Arkansas (3-2, 0-2 SEC): Saturday 6 p.m. ET/5 p.m. CT, ESPN
  6. #4 TCU (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) at #29 Baylor (5-0, 2-0 Big 12): Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, ABC/ESPN2 Outer Market
  7. #26 Louisville (5-1, 3-1 ACC) at #18 Clemson (3-2, 2-1 ACC): Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
  8. #36 Georgia (4-1, 2-1 SEC) at #13 Missouri (4-1, 1-0 SEC): Saturday 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, CBS
  9. #16 Northwestern (3-2, 2-0 Big Ten) at #43 Minnesota (4-1, 1-0 Big Ten): Saturday 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, BTN
  10. #48 LSU (4-2, 0-2 SEC) at #21 Florida (3-1, 2-1 SEC): Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network

As always, enjoy the weekend.

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