Week 8 KPI Epilogue: “Taking Shape”

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The KPI Rankings are taking shape.  It’s becoming easier to see where things are going, and where the pitfalls likely lie.  Plugging the expected score of every remaining game into the rankings is very telling.  Upsets are possible.  Clarity is coming.  So is some controversy, but maybe not as much as people anticipate.

Every team in FBS has now played at least six games, meaning every school is at least half way through their season.  There has enough data now to make logical assessments about this year’s team.  I give you permission to continue reading:

More SEC West:  Georgia’s win over Arkansas on Saturday was the first time this year that an SEC West team to a team not in the SEC West.  The SEC West race is shaping up as a four-team race with LSU hanging on for dear life.  As we should have learned with Auburn last year (early loss, playing from behind), this race is far from over.  Only two of the six round robin games have played among the top four schools (Mississippi, Mississippi State, Alabama, and Auburn), and the two rivalry games (Egg Bowl, Iron Bowl) will take place the final Saturday of the regular season.  Don’t count anybody in or out yet.

That said, there are few scenarios where an SEC West champion wouldn’t make the playoff.  The most plausible I can find is a logjam at 10-2, 6-2 is created at the top, and the division winner loses in the SEC Championship game (to Georgia maybe?).

Speaking of Georgia:  The Bulldogs’ win at Missouri is now the best win on the board.  Missouri’s resume is a little wild with two road wins at South Carolina and Florida, yet a home loss to Indiana.  The Auburn-Georgia matchup on November 15 is looming large for each division’s race.  That game won’t influence the division tiebreaker, but instead will penalize the losing team for the tougher opponent.

The Pac-12 South Up For Grabs:  The EXPs formula is projecting a five-way tie at 6-3 in the Pac-12 South.  Road wins remain the story in the Pac-12, where they own the top Road/Neutral KPI and the top Road W-L record (24-10, .706).  The Pac-12 South is the second best division by KPI, trailing only the SEC West.

In the Pac-12 North, Oregon could actually clinch the division with consecutive wins against Cal and Stanford, plus a little help.  Their only conference loss came outside the division.

Big Ten Scheduling:  Funny how things work out.  There are four one-loss teams in the Big Ten to date – two each in the East and West divisions.  Sure enough, there are two crossover matchups between those teams (Michigan State beat Nebraska October 4, Ohio State visits Minnesota in November).  Whoever wins the Big Ten is going to helped by the boost in strength of schedule.

Remaining Unbeatens:  Only four undefeated teams remain:  Mississippi State, Mississippi, Florida State, and Marshall.  There will not be more than three undefeated teams at season’s end, meaning that somebody who has already lost a game will be in the playoff.

There are seven teams in Power 5 conferences who are undefeated in conference play.  The Big Ten has 3 (Michigan State, Ohio State, and Minnesota), the SEC has 2 (Mississippi State, Mississippi), and the ACC (Florida State) and Big 12 (Kansas State) have one each.

The Eliminator:  Can we safely assume that a 3-loss team from a Power 5 conference will not make the playoff?  Can we also assume that a 1-loss team from a Group of 5 conference will not make the playoff?  Let’s assume both answers are yes for a moment.  If so, these 40 teams are still alive for the playoff:

  • ACC (5): Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Duke
  • AMERICAN (1): East Carolina
  • BIG 12 (6): TCU, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
  • BIG TEN (9): Michigan State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Minnesota, Maryland, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Rutgers
  • CONFERENCE USA (1): Marshall
  • MOUNTAIN WEST (1): Colorado State
  • PAC-12 (8): Oregon, UCLA, Arizona, USC, Arizona State, Utah, Washington, Oregon State
  • SEC (8): Mississippi State, Mississippi, Auburn, Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, LSU, Kentucky
  • INDEPENDENT (1): Notre Dame

If The Season Ended Today:  The conference championship games would be as follows if the season ended today.

  • ACC: #4 Florida State vs. #35 Duke
  • Big Ten: #10 Michigan State vs. #27 Minnesota
  • Conference USA: #69 Louisiana Tech at #24 Marshall
  • MAC: #74 Toledo vs. #92 Bowling Green
  • Mountain West: #99 San Diego State at #25 Boise State
  • Pac-12: #5 Oregon vs. #15 USC
  • SEC: #7 Georgia vs. #2 Mississippi

This does not take into account games still remaining or expected results.  Also, 3-0 is better than 2-0.

Group of 5 Rankings: One team from the Group of 5 Conferences (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) will get a bid into one of the top six bowls.  Marshall is the only remaining undefeated team from that group.  Marshall’s strength of schedule is poor at best, making for an incredibly interesting discussion here.  Does a team like East Carolina (whose only loss was at South Carolina, and beat Virginia Tech and North Carolina) pass an undefeated Marshall by SOS?  It’s possible.

  • #24 Marshall (7-0, 3-0 C-USA)
  • #25 Boise State (5-2, 3-1 Mountain West)
  • #26 Colorado State (6-1, 2-1 Mountain West)
  • #36 East Carolina (5-1, 2-0 American)
  • #40 Central Florida (4-2, 2-0 American)

Among divisions in Group of 5 conferences, only the Mountain West Mountain and Conference USA East have combined records above .500 this season.

FCS Rankings:  North Dakota State maintained its lead atop the FCS rankings this week.  There are four remaining unbeaten teams in FCS (North Dakota State, Illinois State, Coastal Carolina, and Harvard).

  1. North Dakota State (7-0), .371
  2. New Hampshire (5-1), .345
  3. Illinois State (6-0), .332
  4. Coastal Carolina (7-0), .331
  5. Villanova (6-1), .299

Biggest Gains in KPI Rankings in Week 8

  1. Nevada, +26 spots (moved from 70 to 44)
  2. West Virginia, +24 spots (moved from 40 to 16)
  3. Kansas State, +24 spots (moved from 45 to 21)
  4. Houston, +23 spots (moved from 104 to 81)
  5. San Jose State, +22 spots (moved from 93 to 71)

Biggest Falls in KPI Rankings in Week 8

  1. Western Kentucky, -23 spots (moved from 83 to 106)
  2. Iowa State, -22 spots (moved from 50 to 72)
  3. Washington, -20 spots (moved from 23 to 43)
  4. Florida, -19 spots (moved from 19 to 38)
  5. Bowling Green, -18 spots (moved from 74 to 92)

Offensive DIFFs (Differential between points scored and opponent’s points allowed)

  1. Marshall, +23.2
  2. Baylor, +21.8
  3. Michigan State, +21.5
  4. TCU, +21.4
  5. North Carolina, +20.1
  6. Oregon, +19.7
  7. Ohio State, +18.8
  8. Arkansas, +17.9
  9. Florida State, +17.3
  10. Mississippi State, +17.3

Defensive DIFFs (Differential between points allowed and opponent’s points scored)

  1. Mississippi, +19.3
  2. Alabama, +18.7
  3. Auburn, +16.7
  4. Stanford, +16.5
  5. Mississippi State, +12.4
  6. Virginia Tech, +11.8
  7. LSU, +10.2
  8. Notre Dame, +9.8
  9. Clemson, +9.6
  10. Oklahoma, +9.6

Combined Offensive and Defensive DIFFs (Averaging Offensive and Defensive DIFFs)

  1. Auburn, +32.7
  2. Mississippi, +29.8
  3. Mississippi State, +29.7
  4. Alabama, +28.9
  5. Marshall, +28.7
  6. Ohio State, +27.1
  7. TCU, +26.8
  8. Oregon, +25.4
  9. Michigan State, +25.1
  10. LSU, +24.9

Strength of Schedule (The top SOS by KPI, including home/road/neutral adjustments)

  1. Auburn, +.138
  2. Tennessee, +.117
  3. UCLA, +.116
  4. Texas A&M, +.093
  5. Clemson, +.092
  6. Arkansas, +.087
  7. Florida, +.085
  8. Alabama, +.075
  9. SMU, +.075
  10. Mississippi State, +.073

Best Week 8 Wins by KPI Formula

  1. +0.73 at #16 West Virginia 41, #20 Baylor 27
  2. +0.72 at #8 Alabama 59, #37 Texas A&M 0
  3. +0.69 at #4 Florida State 31, #19 Notre Dame 27
  4. +0.64 at #18 LSU 41, #46 Kentucky 3
  5. +0.62 #21 Kansas State 31, at #17 Oklahoma 30

Best Wins by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. +0.99 #7 Georgia 34, at #14 Missouri 0 (October 11)
  2. +0.88 at #1 Mississippi State 38, #3 Auburn 23 (October 11)
  3. +0.88 #11 Arizona 31, at #5 Oregon 24 (October 2)
  4. +0.85 at #3 Auburn 41, #18 LSU 7 (October 4)
  5. +0.84 at #5 Oregon 46, #10 Michigan State 27 (September 6)
  6. +0.83 at #6 TCU 30, #27 Minnesota 7 (September 13)
  7. +0.82 #3 Auburn 20, at #21 Kansas State 14 (September 18)
  8. +0.82 #9 UCLA 62, at #23 Arizona State 27 (September 25)
  9. +0.80 #28 Virginia Tech 35, at #13 Ohio State 21 (September 6)
  10. +0.80 at #2 Mississippi 23, #8 Alabama 17 (October 4)

Most Valuable Week 8 Games by KPI Formula

  1. 96.6% at #4 Florida State 31, #19 Notre Dame 27
  2. 94.7% at #8 Alabama 59, #37 Texas A&M 0
  3. 92.2% at #6 TCU 42, #50 Oklahoma State 9
  4. 91.4% at #5 Oregon 45, #43 Washington 20
  5. 88.3% at #2 Mississippi 34, #42 Tennessee 3

Most Valuable Games by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. 99.5% at #1 Mississippi State 38, #3 Auburn 23 (October 11)
  2. 98.5% at #2 Mississippi 23, #8 Alabama 17 (October 4)
  3. 97.6% #1 Mississippi State 34, at #18 LSU 29 (September 20)
  4. 97.6% at #3 Auburn 41, #18 LSU 7 (October 4)
  5. 96.8% #3 Auburn 20, at #21 Kansas State 14 (September 18)
  6. 96.6% at #4 Florida State 31, #19 Notre Dame 27 (October 18)
  7. 95.6% at #5 Oregon 46, #10 Michigan State 27 (September 6)
  8. 95.4% #2 Mississippi 35, #25 Boise State 13 (September 28)
  9. 95.2% at #6 TCU 30, #27 Minnesota 7 (September 13)
  10. 95.2% at #4 Florida State 23, #12 Clemson 17 OT (September 20)

Outlier Week 8 Games by KPI Formula

  1. 58.1% #115 Ball State 32, at #105 Central Michigan 29
  2. 51.0% #114 Appalachian State 53, at #127 Troy 14
  3. 39.1% #82 Western Michigan 26, at #92 Bowling Green 14
  4. 39.0% #21 Kansas State 31, at #17 Oklahoma 30
  5. 35.7% at #126 Massachusetts 36, #119 Eastern Michigan 14

Outlier Games by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. 85.8% #73 Washington State 28, at #31 Utah 27 (September 27)
  2. 75.8% #107 Texas-San Antonio 27, at #81 Houston 7 (August 29)
  3. 71.6% #54 Indiana 31, at #14 Missouri 27 (September 20)
  4. 67.3% #118 FCS/Northwestern State 30, at #69 Louisiana Tech 27 (September 20)
  5. 64.1% #72 Iowa State 20, at #58 Iowa 17 (September 13)
  6. 60.2% #105 Central Michigan 34, at #83 Northern Illinois 17 (October 11)
  7. 59.9% #49 Northwestern 29, at #47 Penn State 6 (September 27)
  8. 59.8% #28 Virginia Tech 35, at #13 Ohio State 21 (September 6)
  9. 59.6% #113 New Mexico 21, at #107 Texas-San Antonio 9 (October 4)
  10. 59.6% #126 Massachusetts 40, at #123 Kent State 17 (October 11)

Most Accurate Week 8 Games by Expected Margin and EXPs (Numbers signify difference between actual and expected margins)

  1. 6.3% at #48 North Carolina 48, #32 Georgia Tech 43 (EXP Score: Georgia Tech 49-48)
  2. 6.5% at #4 Florida State 31, #19 Notre Dame 27 (EXP Score: Florida State 35-27)
  3. 6.6% #90 South Florida 38, at #122 Tulsa 30 (EXP Score: USF 33-30)
  4. 9.3% #71 San Jose State 27, at #88 Wyoming 20 OT (EXP Score: San Jose State 25-22)
  5. 11.8% at #25 Boise State 37, #89 Fresno State 27 (EXP Score: Boise State 45-28)

TV Schedule:  The following games with a 6-day network flex were confirmed for October 25:

  • Texas at Kansas State: 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, ESPN
  • Rutgers at Nebraska: 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, ESPN2
  • Minnesota at Illinois: 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, ESPNU
  • West Virginia at Oklahoma State: 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, ESPN
  • Oregon State at Stanford: 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT, ESPN2
  • Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
  • Mississippi at LSU: 7:15 p.m. ET/6:15 p.m. CT, ESPN
  • Alabama at Tennessee: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
  • South Carolina at Auburn: 7:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. CT, SEC Network
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