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Week 9 KPI Epilogue: “And Now The Storm”

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College Football Play-off Committee, you’re on the clock.  All data leading into this week’s release of the committee’s first ballot is calculated.

And as stated in this week’s prologue, a precedent is about to be set.  Fair or not, fans will have a better feel as to what parts of a team’s resume are prioritized.  It should be fun!

BUT, there’s a major catch.  There’s so many head to head games remaining between teams that matter (and especially teams in the same conference), that those conference games will cancel one another out.  The SEC is not getting four teams in the playoff.  Relax.

So have fun with this week’s rankings, but understand that it’s impossible to measure conference affiliation relative to team selection at this stage.  The only thing that can be measured is who a team played – regardless of the opponent’s conference.

Also, please don’t forget one thing we learned in the BCS era.  Conference championship upsets have a significant effect on the final result.  We’re talking about one game in December changing the landscape.  Keep that in mind, too.

With that … some data mining …

Highest Ranked 1-Loss Teams:  #2 Auburn (6-1), #3 Mississippi (7-1), #5 Georgia (6-1), #6 Alabama (7-1), #7 Oregon (7-1)

Highest Ranked 2-Loss Teams:  #8 Clemson (6-2), #9 LSU (7-2), #12 UCLA (6-2), #14 West Virginia (6-2), #17 Oklahoma (5-2)

Highest Ranked 3-Loss Teams:  #21 Miami (FL) (5-3), #25 USC (5-3), #35 Maryland (5-3), #36 Texas A&M (5-3), #40 Stanford (5-3)

Remaining Unbeatens:  After Ole Miss lost at LSU Saturday, only three undefeated teams remain:  Mississippi State (7-0), Florida State (7-0), and Marshall (8-0).  Florida State actually has the most difficult remaining schedule of the three (skewed partially by the FCS opponent remaining on Mississippi State’s schedule).  Marshall has a strength of schedule of 123 (out of 129) to date, with a remaining schedule ranked No. 97.

There are 18 teams with just one loss (4 SEC, 4 Pac-12, 3 Big 12, 3 Big Ten, 1 ACC, 1 American, 1 Mountain West, 1 Independent).

There are 12 teams who are still undefeated in conference play:

  • ACC (1): Florida State
  • AMERICAN (2): Central Florida, East Carolina
  • BIG 12 (1): Kansas State
  • BIG TEN (2): Michigan State, Ohio State
  • CONFERENCE USA (2): Louisiana Tech, Marshall
  • MAC (1): Toledo
  • SEC (1): Mississippi State
  • SUN BELT (2): Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Lafayette

The Eliminator:  The Eliminator assumes (not necessarily justly) that a Power 5 conference team with three or more losses and a Group of 5 team with one or more losses will not make the playoff.  Under that assumption, 30 teams remain in play for the postseason playoff.

  • ACC (5): Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Duke
  • BIG 12 (5): TCU, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor
  • BIG TEN (6): Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa
  • CONFERENCE USA (1): Marshall
  • PAC-12 (5): Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona, Utah
  • SEC (7): Mississippi State, Auburn, Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Missouri
  • INDEPENDENT (1): Notre Dame

Conference by Conference:  The conference championship games would be as follows if the season ended today.

  • ACC: #4 Florida State (7-0, 4-0 ACC) vs. #31 Duke (6-1, 2-1 ACC)
  • Big 12: #24 Kansas State (6-1, 4-0 Big 12) is the current leader. No conference championship game.
  • Big Ten: #11 Michigan State (7-1, 4-0 Big Ten) vs. #15 Nebraska (7-1, 3-1 Big Ten)/Minnesota (6-2, 3-1 Big Ten)
  • Pac-12: #7 Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Pac-12) vs. Arizona State (6-1, 4-1 Pac-12)
  • SEC: #5 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC) vs. #1 Mississippi State (7-0, 4-0 SEC)
  • American: #37 East Carolina (6-1, 3-0 American) and #43 Central Florida (5-2, 3-0 American) are tied for the conference lead.  No conference championship game.
  • Conference USA: #57 Louisiana Tech (5-3, 4-0 Conference USA) at Marshall (8-0, 4-0 Conference USA)
  • MAC: #62 Toledo (5-3, 4-0 MAC) vs. #81 Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1 MAC)
  • Mountain West: #99 San Diego State (4-3, 3-1 Mountain West) vs. #19 Boise State (6-2, 3-1 Mountain West)
  • Sun Belt: Georgia Southern (6-2, 5-0 Sun Belt) is the current leader.  No conference championship game.

This does not take into account games still remaining or expected results.  Also, 3-0 is better than 2-0.

Group of 5 Rankings: One team from the Group of 5 Conferences (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) will get a bid into one of the top six bowls.  Marshall is the only remaining undefeated team from that group.  Marshall’s strength of schedule is poor at best, making for an incredibly interesting discussion here.  Does a team like East Carolina (whose only loss was at South Carolina, and beat Virginia Tech and North Carolina) pass an undefeated Marshall by SOS?  It’s possible.

  • #19 Boise State (6-2, 3-1 Mountain West)
  • #26 Colorado State (7-1, 3-1 Mountain West)
  • #32 Marshall (8-0, 4-0 Conference USA)
  • #37 East Carolina (6-1, 3-0 American)
  • #43 Central Florida (5-2, 3-0 American)

The MAC West (26-23) has joined the Mountain West Mountain (28-18, .609) and Conference USA East (29-26) as the three Group of 5 divisions collectively above .500.

FCS Rankings:  Coastal Carolina rose to the top of the FCS Rankings this week after a 43-22 win over Charleston Southern Saturday.  They are one of four unbeaten FCS teams (Illinois State, North Dakota State, and Harvard are the others).

  1. Coastal Carolina (8-0), .363
  2. New Hampshire (6-1), .338
  3. Illinois State (7-0), .336
  4. Villanova (7-1), .315
  5. North Dakota State (8-0), .313

Biggest Gains in KPI Rankings in Week 9

  1. Wisconsin, +29 spots (moved from 62 to 33)
  2. Illinois, +26 spots (moved from 87 to 61)
  3. Louisiana-Lafayette, +24 spots (moved from 79 to 55)
  4. Navy, +16 spots (moved from 98 to 82)
  5. Central Michigan, +14 spots (moved from 105 to 91)

Biggest Falls in KPI Rankings in Week 9

  1. Akron, -26 spots (moved from 70 to 96)
  2. Louisiana-Monroe, -25 spots (moved from 78 to 103)
  3. Penn State, -18 spots (moved from 47 to 65)
  4. Pittsburgh, -16 spots (moved from 57 to 73)
  5. Arkansas State, -16 spots (moved from 56 to 72)

Offensive DIFFs (Differential between points scored and opponent’s points allowed)

  1. TCU, +24.0
  2. Baylor, +22.2
  3. Michigan State, +19.9
  4. Marshall, +19.7
  5. Oregon, +18.8
  6. North Carolina, +18.4
  7. Florida State, +17.9
  8. Ohio State, +17.8
  9. Mississippi State, +17.5
  10. Georgia Southern, +16.5

Defensive DIFFs (Differential between points allowed and opponent’s points scored)

  1. Mississippi, +20.7
  2. Alabama, +16.0
  3. Stanford, +15.0
  4. Auburn, +13.9
  5. LSU, +12.2
  6. Virginia Tech, +10.3
  7. Clemson, +10.0
  8. Mississippi State, +10.0
  9. Penn State, +10.0
  10. Notre Dame, +9.6

Combined Offensive and Defensive DIFFs (Averaging Offensive and Defensive DIFFs)

  1. Auburn, +29.4
  2. TCU, +28.7
  3. Mississippi, +28.6
  4. Mississippi State, +27.4
  5. Alabama, +26.8
  6. Marshall, +25.6
  7. Michigan State, +24.7
  8. LSU, +24.7
  9. Georgia, +24.1
  10. Oregon, +24.0

Strength of Schedule (The top SOS by KPI, including home/road/neutral adjustments)

  1. Auburn, .141
  2. Tennessee, .125
  3. Mississippi, .106
  4. Texas A&M, .095
  5. South Carolina, .089
  6. Mississippi State, .086
  7. UCLA, .086
  8. Alabama, .079
  9. Florida, .071
  10. Clemson, .078

Best Week 9 Wins by KPI Formula

  1. +0.82 at #9 LSU 10, #3 Mississippi 7
  2. +0.62 at #33 Wisconsin 52, #35 Maryland 7
  3. +0.57 #13 Arizona State 24, at #44 Washington 10
  4. +0.54 #21 Miami (FL) 30, at #29 Virginia Tech 6
  5. +0.51 #1 Mississippi State 45, at #58 Kentucky 31

Best Wins by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. +1.00 #5 Georgia 34, at #22 Missouri 0 (October 11)
  2. +0.93 at #2 Auburn 41, #9 LSU 7 (October 4)
  3. +0.91 #12 UCLA 62, at #13 Arizona State 27 (September 25)
  4. +0.90 at #1 Mississippi State 38, #2 Auburn 23 (October 11)
  5. +0.88 #18 Arizona 31, at #7 Oregon 24 (October 2)
  6. +0.86 at #7 Oregon 46, #11 Michigan State 27 (September 6)
  7. +0.84 #2 Auburn 20, at #24 Kansas State 14 (September 18)
  8. +0.83 #29 Virginia Tech 35, at #16 Ohio State 21 (September 6)
  9. +0.82 at #9 LSU 10, #3 Mississippi 7 (October 25)
  10. +0.79 at #3 Mississippi 23, #6 Alabama 17 (October 4)

Outlier Week 9 Games by KPI Formula

  1. 44.1% at #9 LSU 10, #3 Mississippi 7
  2. 37.1% #21 Miami (FL) 30, at #29 Virginia Tech 6
  3. 34.0% #102 Texas State 22, at #103 Louisiana-Monroe 18
  4. 33.0% at #61 Illinois 28, #39 Minnesota 24
  5. 29.2% at #37 East Carolina 31, #124 Connecticut 21

Outlier Games by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. 88.2% #78 Washington State 28, at #27 Utah 27 (September 27)
  2. 80.7% #118 FCS/Northwestern State 30, at #57 Louisiana Tech 27 (September 20)
  3. 80.4% #113 Texas-San Antonio 27, at #89 Houston 7 (August 29)
  4. 71.0% #49 Indiana 31, at #22 Missouri 27 (September 20)
  5. 64.5% #29 Virginia Tech 35, at #16 Ohio State 21 (September 6)
  6. 64.4% #75 Iowa State 20, at #64 Iowa 17 (September 13)
  7. 61.1% #91 Central Michigan 34, at #77 Northern Illinois 17 (October 11)
  8. 57.9% #18 Arizona 31, at #7 Oregon 24 (October 2)
  9. 57.2% #125 Massachusetts 40, at #128 Kent State 17 (October 11)
  10. 55.8% #96 Akron 21, at #73 Pittsburgh 10 (September 27)

Most Accurate Week 9 Games by Expected Margin and EXPs (Numbers signify difference between actual and expected margins)

  1. 3.3% #7 Oregon 59, #67 California 41 (EXP Score: Oregon 58-39)
  2. 6.9% #12 UCLA 40, at #93 Colorado 37 (2OT) (EXP Score: UCLA 41-33)
  3. 7.1% at #79 Western Michigan 42, #97 Ohio 21 (EXP Score: WMU 37-20)
  4. 10.4% at #62 Toledo 42, #125 Massachusetts 35 (EXP Score: Toledo 49-33)
  5. 10.8% at #10 TCU 82, #80 Texas Tech 27 (EXP Score: 70-25)

TV Schedule:  The following games with a 6-day network flex were confirmed for October 31:

  • Cincinnati at Tulane: 8 p.m. ET/7 p.m. CT, ESPN2
  • Tulsa at Memphis: 8 p.m. ET/7 p.m. CT, ESPNU

The following games with a 6-day network flex were confirmed for November 1:

  • Wisconsin at Rutgers: 12 p.m. ET, ESPN
  • Maryland at Penn State: 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2
  • Northwestern at Iowa: 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, BTN
  • Oklahoma at Iowa State: 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, FOX Sports 1
  • TCU at West Virginia: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2 Outer-Market
  • Purdue at Nebraska: 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, ABC/ESPN2 Outer-Market
  • Indiana at Michigan: 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN
  • Auburn at Mississippi: 7 p.m. ET/6 p.m. CT, ESPN
  • Arkansas at Mississippi State: 7:15 p.m. ET/6:15 p.m. CT, ESPN2
  • Texas at Texas Tech: 7:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. CT , FOX Sports 1
  • Oklahoma State at Kansas State: 8 p.m. ET/7 p.m. CT, ABC (Regional)
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