Week 10 KPI Epilogue: “Ranking Resumes”

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Whether good or bad, the KPI algorithm ranks resumes, not necessarily teams.

Last winter, I got into the discussion as to whether people who predicted the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket were trying to predict what the committee was going to do or what they thought the committee SHOULD do.  There is a big difference between the two.

This week, Auburn jumped Mississippi State to move to No. 1 in the KPI Rankings.  With Mississippi State having beaten Auburn head to head (and having one fewer loss), logic says Mississippi State should be No. 1.  This is why there is a playoff committee.

Professional sports choose to go by standings because teams being compared are most often playing similar schedules (in the NFL, division foes play 14 of 16 games against common opponents).  Because college football is so large, we are asked to compare teams that will never play based on a few non-conference games played by common opponents.  We’ve already talked at length about how the transitive property does not work in sports.

I don’t know if Florida State is better than Mississippi State, but I do know that Mississippi State’s resume is definitely better than Florida State’s so far.  It’s important to note what the KPI algorithm does tell us and that it be interpreted for what it is and not in hypotheticals.  Then again, a head to head matchup doesn’t guarantee to determine the better team either.  There’s such a thing as an outlier.

Remember this from the 1990s?  It only takes one time:

Why is Auburn ahead of Mississippi State?:  Mississippi State won the head to head meeting, and is undefeated.  Logic dictates that Mississippi State should be the No. 1 team (and they likely will in Tuesday’s CFP Ranking).  Auburn, however, has the No. 1 SOS and has three of the top nine wins that ANYBODY has this season (LSU, at Kansas State, at Ole Miss).  All that said, the head to head means they need to win out AND have Mississippi State lose twice in order to make the SEC Championship Game.  A tall order.

SEC West Chaos: The SEC West has been talked about a lot. A real lot. However, the chaos may yet still be to come.  There is a plausible scenario by which the top five teams tie for the division, all at 6-2.  The resume of the second best team in the division will be scrutinized heavily.

Each team’s resume to date:

Site Auburn (7-1) KPI Result Site Mississippi State (8-0) KPI Result Site Mississippi (7-2) KPI Result
H LSU (7-2) .93 W 41-7 H Auburn (7-1) .92 W 38-23 H Alabama (7-1) .79 W 23-17
A Kansas State (7-1) .88 W 20-14 A LSU (7-2) .78 W 34-29 N Boise State (6-2) .73 W 35-13
A Mississippi (7-2) .84 W 35-31 H Texas A&M (6-3) .53 W 48-31 A Texas A&M (6-3) .64 W 35-20
H Louisiana Tech (6-3) .53 W 45-17 A South Alabama (5-3) .42 W 35-3 H Louisiana-Lafayette (5-3) .56 W 56-15
H Arkansas (4-5) .27 W 45-21 A Kentucky (5-4) .41 W 45-31 H Memphis (5-3) .43 W 24-3
H South Carolina (4-5) .19 W 42-35 H Arkansas (4-5) .24 W 17-10 H Tennessee (4-5) .37 W 34-3
H San Jose State (3-5) .14 W 59-13 H UAB (5-4) .18 W 47-34 A Vanderbilt (3-6) .14 W 41-3
A Mississippi State (8-0) (.00) L 23-38 H Southern Miss (3-6) .15 W 49-0 H Auburn (7-1) (.00) L 31-35
H Texas A&M (6-3) H FCS/Tennessee-Martin A LSU (7-2) (.02) L 7-10
A Georgia (6-2) A Alabama (7-1) H FCS/Presbyterian
H FCS/Samford H Vanderbilt (3-6) A Arkansas (4-5)
A Alabama (7-1) A Mississippi (7-2) H Mississippi State (8-0)
Site Alabama (7-1) KPI Result Site LSU (7-2) KPI Result
H Texas A&M (6-3) .77 W 59-0 H Mississippi (7-2) .75 W 10-7
N West Virginia (6-3) .54 W 33-23 N Wisconsin (6-2) .57 W 28-24
H Florida (4-3) .45 W 42-21 A Florida (4-3) .46 W 30-27
A Tennessee (4-5) .37 W 34-20 H Kentucky (5-4) .44 W 41-3
A Arkansas (4-5) .29 W 14-13 H FCS/Sam Houston State (5-4) .14 W 56-0
H Southern Miss (3-6) .13 W 52-12 H Louisiana-Monroe (3-5) .10 W 31-0
H Florida Atlantic (3-6) .11 W 41-0 H New Mexico State (2-7) .02 W 63-7
A Mississippi (7-2) (.01) L 17-23 H Mississippi State (8-0) (.00) L 29-34
A LSU (7-2) A Auburn (7-1) (.00) L 7-41
H Mississippi State (8-0) H Alabama (7-1)
H FCS/Western Carolina A Arkansas (4-5)
H Auburn (7-1) A Texas A&M (6-3)

Oh, and the SEC East:  Where the chaos really comes from is if the SEC East champion wins the SEC Championship.  Missouri (7-2, 4-1 SEC) currently leads the East despite home losses to Indiana and Georgia.  Georgia holds the tiebreaker, but also has to face Auburn.  Missouri has remaining games at Texas A&M, at Tennessee, and at home vs. Arkansas.

In the Big Ten West:  There are four Big Ten West teams (Nebrsaka, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin) all with one conference loss, and none of the four teams have played each other yet.  The four-team round robin begins Saturday with Iowa at Minnesota.  After Nebraska at Wisconsin on November 15, the four teams will complete the series the last two weeks of the season.

Kansas State has to play road games against the teams currently in second, third, and fourth place in the Big 12 (at TCU, at West Virginia, at Baylor).  On the other hand, once TCU plays Kansas State Saturday, their remaining three games are at Kansas, at Texas and vs. Iowa State.

ACC Coastal Chaos, Too:  In order for the ACC Coastal to end in a 7-way tie at 4-4, Virginia Tech must win out, Georgia Tech must lose out, the Coastal must go exactly 5-4 vs. the Atlantic and have a few things play out the right way.  Below are scenarios where that could happen (including the PITT-UNC game, whereby the loser of that game must win all other games).

W L Wk 11   Wk 12   Wk 13   Wk 14   W L
Duke 3 1 at SYR   VT L UNC   WF   3 2
Georgia Tech 4 2 at NCST L CLEM L     4 4
Miami 3 2   FSU   at UVA L PITT   3 3
Virginia 2 3 at FSU W   MIA W at VT L 4 4
Pittsburgh 2 3   at UNC   SYR   at MIA   2 3
UNC 2 3   PITT   at DUKE   NCST   2 3
Virginia Tech 1 4   at DUKE W at WF W UVA W 4 4

 

if PITT beats UNC W L Wk 11   Wk 12   Wk 13   Wk 14   W L
Duke 3 1 at SYR   VT L UNC L WF   3 3
Georgia Tech 4 2 at NCST L CLEM L     4 4
Miami 3 2   FSU   at UVA L PITT   3 3
Virginia 2 3 at FSU W   MIA W at VT L 4 4
Pittsburgh 2 3   at UNC W SYR   at MIA   3 3
UNC 2 3   PITT L at DUKE W NCST W 4 4
Virginia Tech 1 4   at DUKE W at WF W UVA W 4 4

 

if UNC beats PITT W L Wk 11   Wk 12   Wk 13   Wk 14   W L
Duke 3 1 at SYR   VT L UNC   WF   3 2
Georgia Tech 4 2 at NCST L CLEM L     4 4
Miami 3 2   FSU W at UVA L PITT L 4 4
Virginia 2 3 at FSU W   MIA W at VT L 4 4
Pittsburgh 2 3   at UNC L SYR W at MIA W 4 4
UNC 2 3   PITT W at DUKE   NCST   3 3
Virginia Tech 1 4   at DUKE W at WF W UVA W 4 4

Remaining Unbeatens:  #2 Mississippi State (8-0), #4 Florida State (8-0), and #34 Marshall (8-0) remain unbeaten.

Highest Ranked 1-Loss Teams:  #1 Auburn (7-1), #5 Oregon (8-1), #6 Alabama (7-1), #8 TCU (7-1), #10 Arizona State (7-1), #13 Michigan State (7-1), #16 Kansas State (7-1), #18 Ohio State (7-1), #19 Nebraska (8-1), #21 Colorado State (8-1), #23 Notre Dame (7-1), #28 Baylor (7-1), #30 Duke (7-1)

Highest Ranked 2-Loss Teams:  #3 Mississippi (7-2), #7 UCLA (7-2), #9 LSU (7-2), #11 Boise State (6-2), #12 Georgia (6-2), #14 Clemson (6-2), #15 Oklahoma (6-2), #20 Arizona (6-2), #22 Missouri (7-2), #25 Georgia Tech (7-2), #26 Wisconsin (6-2), #29 Utah (6-2)

Highest Ranked 3-Loss Teams:  #17 Miami (FL) (6-3), #24 West Virginia (6-3), #27 Florida (4-3)

There are 10 teams who are still undefeated in conference play:

  • ACC (1): Florida State
  • BIG 12 (1): Kansas State
  • BIG TEN (2): Michigan State, Ohio State
  • CONFERENCE USA (2): Louisiana Tech, Marshall
  • MAC (1): Toledo
  • SEC (1): Mississippi State
  • SUN BELT (2): Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Lafayette

The Eliminator:  The Eliminator assumes (not necessarily justly) that a Power 5 conference team with three or more losses and a Group of 5 team with one or more losses will not make the playoff.  Under that assumption, 28 teams remain in play for the postseason playoff.

  • ACC (4): Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Duke
  • BIG 12 (4): TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor
  • BIG TEN (6): Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa
  • CONFERENCE USA (1): Marshall
  • PAC-12 (5): Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona, Utah
  • SEC (7): Auburn, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Missouri
  • INDEPENDENT (1): Notre Dame

Conference by Conference:  The conference championship games would be as follows if the season ended today.

  • ACC: Florida State (8-0, 5-0 ACC) vs. Duke (7-1, 3-1 ACC)
  • Big 12: Kansas State (7-1, 5-0 Big 12) is the current leader. KSU has games remaining against both teams with one conference loss (Baylor and TCU).  Baylor beat TCU head to head.
  • Big Ten: Michigan State (7-1, 4-0 Big Ten)/Ohio State (7-1, 4-0 Big Ten) vs. Nebraska (8-1, 4-1 Big Ten).  Michigan State and Ohio State play Saturday.
  • Pac-12: Oregon (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12) vs. Arizona State (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12). Oregon needs one more win or one loss by both Stanford and Washington to clinch the North.  Five teams are within one game of each other in the South.
  • SEC: Mississippi State (8-0, 5-0 SEC) vs. Missouri (7-2, 4-1 SEC).  Mississippi State controls its destiny, but has road games at Alabama and Ole Miss remaining.  Missouri is one game up on Georgia, but Georgia holds the tiebreaker.
  • American: Five teams (East Carolina, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, and UCF) are all tied at 3-1 in conference play.  East Carolina (6-2) is the only team with fewer than three losses.
  • Conference USA: Louisiana Tech (6-3, 5-0 C-USA) at Marshall (8-0, 4-0 C-USA)
  • MAC: Toledo (5-3, 4-0 MAC) vs. Bowling Green (5-3, 3-1 MAC)
  • Mountain West: Nevada (6-3, 3-2 MWC) at Colorado State (8-1, 4-1 MWC).  Note that Colorado State is tied with Boise State and Utah State in the loss column.  Boise State beat Colorado State, Colorado State beat Utah State, and Utah State closes the season at Boise State.
  • Sun Belt: Georgia Southern (7-2, 6-0 Sun Belt) and Louisiana-Lafayette (5-3, 4-0 Sun Belt) are both undefeated in conference play.  They do not play each other this year.

Group of 5 Rankings: East Carolina (lost at Temple) and Central Florida (lost at Connecticut) both dropped a key game that damages the American’s chances of being represented in one of the top bowl games.  Boise State jumped in the KPI this week due to a great SOS, but those numbers will drop the next few weeks as they play New Mexico, San Diego State, and Wyoming.  Colorado State is 8-1, but that only loss came head to head at Boise State.  Marshall is undefeated, but has one of the worst schedules in FBS.

Boise State is currently up to No. 11 in the KPI with wins over Colorado State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Nevada, and BYU.  Their SOS numbers will take a big hit over the next few weeks after playing No. 110 New Mexico, No. 103 San Diego State, and No. 85 Wyoming.  By math only, Boise State is in the best position to make a power bowl.

  • #11 Boise State (6-2, 3-1 MWC)
  • #21 Colorado State (8-1, 4-1 MWC)
  • #34 Marshall (8-0, 4-0 C-USA)
  • #37 Louisiana-Lafayette (5-3, 4-0 Sun Belt)
  • #42 Utah State (6-3, 3-1 MWC)

FCS Rankings:  North Dakota State returned to the top of the FCS Rankings by a narrow margin over New Hampshire and Coastal Carolina.  There are three unbeaten teams remaining (North Dakota State, Coastal Carolina, and Harvard).  FCS teams are 8-92 (.080) against FBS teams, losing by an average margin of 27.8 PPG (scoring 15.0 PPG, allowing 42.7 PPG).

  1. North Dakota State (9-0, 5-0), .347
  2. Coastal Carolina (9-0, 3-0), .334
  3. New Hampshire (7-1, 5-0), .332
  4. FBS (92-8), .287
  5. Indiana State (6-3, 3-2), .283
  6. Harvard (7-0, 4-0), .276

Biggest Gains in KPI Rankings in Week 10

  1. BYU, +25 spots (moved from 69 to 44)
  2. Temple, +21 spots (moved from 95 to 74)
  3. Louisiana-Lafayette, +18 spots (moved from 55 to 37)
  4. Utah State, +18 spots (moved from 60 to 42)
  5. Florida, +15 spots (moved from 42 to 27)

Biggest Falls in KPI Rankings in Week 10

  1. East Carolina, -28 spots (moved from 37 to 65)
  2. Indiana, -19 spots (moved from 49 to 68)
  3. South Carolina, -18 spots (moved from 34 to 52)
  4. Central Florida, -16 spots (moved from 43 to 59)
  5. Oregon State, -16 spots (moved from 70 to 86)

Offensive DIFFs (Differential between points scored and opponent’s points allowed)

  1. Baylor, +22.5
  2. TCU, +21.8
  3. Oregon, +20.6
  4. Michigan State, +20.4
  5. Marshall, +19.6
  6. Florida State, +18.2
  7. Ohio State, +17.7
  8. Auburn, +16.5
  9. California, +15.9
  10. Georgia Southern, +15.7

Defensive DIFFs (Differential between points allowed and opponent’s points scored)

  1. Mississippi, +19.1
  2. Alabama, +15.7
  3. Stanford, +13.2
  4. Auburn, +12.2
  5. LSU, +11.7
  6. Mississippi State, +11.0
  7. Oklahoma, +10.1
  8. Penn State, +9.8
  9. Texas, +9.7
  10. Clemson, +9.4

Combined Offensive and Defensive DIFFs (Averaging Offensive and Defensive DIFFs)

  1. Auburn, +28.7
  2. Mississippi, +27.4
  3. TCU, +26.5
  4. Alabama, +26.2
  5. Oregon, +25.7
  6. Mississippi State, +25.4
  7. Michigan State, +25.1
  8. Marshall, +24.8
  9. Oklahoma, +24.4
  10. LSU, +24.4

Strength of Schedule (The top SOS by KPI, including home/road/neutral adjustments)

  1. Auburn, .178
  2. Mississippi, .177
  3. Tennessee, .134
  4. Florida, .112
  5. Arkansas, .106
  6. UCLA, .104
  7. Alabama, .084
  8. Oklahoma, .077
  9. Mississippi State, .075
  10. LSU, .071

Best Week 10 Wins by KPI Formula

  1. +0.84 #1 Auburn 35, at #3 Mississippi 31
  2. +0.62 #27 Florida 38, #12 Georgia 20
  3. +0.60 at #7 UCLA 17, #20 Arizona 7
  4. +0.57 #4 Florida State 42, at #35 Louisville 31
  5. +0.57 #8 TCU 31, at #24 West Virginia 30

Best Wins by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. +0.98 #12 Georgia 34, at #22 Missouri 0 (Oct 11)
  2. +0.97 #7 UCLA 62, at #10 Arizona State 27 (Sept 25)
  3. +0.93 at #1 Auburn 41, #9 LSU 7 (Oct 4)
  4. +0.92 at #2 Mississippi State 38, #1 Auburn 23 (Oct 11)
  5. +0.90 #20 Arizona 31, at #5 Oregon 24 (Oct 2)
  6. +0.88 #1 Auburn 20, at #16 Kansas State 14 (Sept 18)
  7. +0.86 at #5 Oregon 46, #13 Michigan State 27 (Sept 6)
  8. +0.84 #38 Virginia Tech 35, at #18 Ohio State 21 (Sept 6)
  9. +0.84 #1 Auburn 35, at #3 Mississippi 31 (Nov 1)
  10. +0.79 #5 Oregon 42, at #7 UCLA 30 (Oct 11)

Outlier Week 10 Games by KPI Formula

  1. 57.3% at #112 Connecticut 37, #59 Central Florida 27
  2. 44.6% #27 Florida 38, #12 Georgia 20
  3. 43.2% #1 Auburn 35, at #3 Mississippi 31
  4. 35.3% #110 New Mexico 31, at #116 UNLV 28
  5. 34.9% #73 Texas 34, at #91 Texas Tech 13

Outlier Games by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. 87.0% #111 Texas-San Antonio 27, at #75 Houston 7 (Aug 29)
  2. 85.1% #121 FCS/Northwestern State 30, at #43 Louisiana Tech 27 (Sept 20)
  3. 83.7% #88 Washington State 28, at #29 Utah 27 (Sept 27)
  4. 75.0% #68 Indiana 31, at #22 Missouri 27 (Sept 20)
  5. 73.3% #38 Virginia Tech 35, at #18 Ohio State 21 (Sept 6)
  6. 65.7% #69 Iowa State 20, at #54 Iowa 17 (Sept 13)
  7. 63.0% #20 Arizona 31, at #5 Oregon 24 (Oct 2)
  8. 61.2% #76 Pittsburgh 30, at #39 Boston College 20 (Sept 5)
  9. 60.2% #105 Old Dominion 45, at #84 Rice 42 (Sept 20)
  10. 58.0% #12 Georgia 34, at #22 Missouri 0 (Oct 11)

Most Accurate Week 10 Games by Expected Margin and EXPs (Numbers signify difference between actual and expected margins)

  1. 1.2% at #28 Baylor 60, #106 Kansas 14 (EXP Score: Baylor 59-14)
  2. 3.3% #92 Texas State 37, at #126 New Mexico State 29 (EXP Score: Texas State 38-30)
  3. 4.4% #110 New Mexico 31, at #116 UNLV 28 (EXP Score: New Mexico 32-30)
  4. 8.2% #64 Arkansas State 44, at #119 Idaho 28 (EXP Score: Arkansas State 39-29)
  5. 11.0% #97 UAB 31, at #102 Florida Atlantic 28 (EXP Score: UAB 37-29)

TV Schedule:  The following games with a 6-day network flex were confirmed for November 8:

  • Baylor at Oklahoma, 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, FOX Sports 1
  • Iowa at Minnesota, 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, ESPN2
  • Wisconsin at Purdue, 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU
  • Georgia Tech at North Carolina State, 12:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network/ESPN3
  • Duke at Syracuse, 12:30 p.m. ET, ACC RSN/ESPN3
  • Kansas State at TCU, 7:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. CT, FOX
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