Week 11 KPI Epilogue: “Clarity?”

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The SEC West now holds the top four spots in the KPI rankings.  Here’s why:

  • First off, the SEC West is not getting four teams in the playoff.
  • The SEC West is dominating the rankings because they collective went 26-0 in the non-conference and 36-1 against non-SEC West teams. All seven teams are benefiting.  The opportunities for quality wins within the division have increased.  It’s a chain reaction.
  • There has not been clear separation within the division standings. As a result, Mississippi, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Alabama are in a near dead-lock by math as well.
  • Head to head matchups between Mississippi State-Alabama, Mississippi State-Mississippi, and Auburn-Alabama still need to be played. Someone needs to lose.

The reason math rankings don’t always hold up to human rankings is because teams don’t play their schedule in the same order.  Even now, some teams have a strong remaining SOS, others have already played the meat of their schedule.  It will even out sooner rather than later.

Oregon Remaining Schedule:  Oregon’s remaining SOS by KPI is No. 108 by KPI (lowest SOS for any team in the top 39 of KPI) with games remaining vs. Colorado and at Oregon State.  With a bid clinched in the Pac-12 Championship Game (Dec. 5, 9 p.m. ET, FOX), they will have an opportunity for a SOS boost.  A 12-1 Oregon is making the playoff.

Big 12 Argument:  TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State all sit atop the Big 12 at 5-1 in conference play.  SOS numbers have been a hot topic all season long (especially Baylor, whose SOS = 73, Future SOS = 70).  A 12-1 Big Ten champion (Ohio State or Nebraska) finishes ahead of an 11-1 Baylor or TCU in KPI in all scenarios that can be run to date. (Note: Just because they finish ahead in KPI doesn’t mean they make the playoff!).

Speaking of Big Ten:  Ohio State moved up to No. 10 in KPI with their win at Michigan State on Saturday (worth .78, the 11st best win of the season) and is now in control of the Big Ten East.  The Big Ten West is still up for grabs (Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin each are 4-1), but keep an eye on Nebraska.  Their resume is very similar to Michigan State’s from one year ago at this time and their schedule could end up being backloaded.  Both a 12-1 Ohio State and a 12-1 Nebraska will have a competitive math resume.  An 11-2 Big Ten team will not.

Why is UCLA so high?:  UCLA has a fascinating resume.  They have the best win of the season (a 62-27 win at 8-1 Arizona State).  They have won five games by eight points or less (Memphis, California, Virginia, Texas, Colorado).  Their two losses are both at home (Oregon, Utah).  Their biggest benefit is their schedule.  They miss Oregon State and Washington State (two of the three Pac-12 schools under .500) and all three of their non-conference games (Virginia, Texas, Memphis) are against teams ranked between 45-59.  Their No. 4 KPI SOS has given them a margin of error.

KPI in Games vs. Top-50 Only:  If all games against 51-129 were eliminated (including FCS games), the rankings would look like this:

  1. Florida State (3-0)
  2. Mississippi State (4-0)
  3. Oregon (5-1)
  4. TCU (4-1)
  5. Baylor (2-1)
  6. Mississippi (6-2)
  7. Auburn (5-2)
  8. Alabama (6-1)
  9. Georgia (4-1)
  10. Arizona State (5-1)
  11. UCLA (4-2)
  12. Ohio State (8-1)

Why does this matter?  It takes out bad wins (and there are a lot of them).  There is variance in how a bad win is measured, and it’s not necessarily a team’s fault if their opponent is 1-8 while another opponent is 5-4.  Scheduling intent is negated.

Remaining Unbeatens:  #3 Mississippi State (9-0), #8 Florida State (9-0), and #35 Marshall (9-0) remain unbeaten.

Highest Ranked 1-Loss Teams:  #4 Alabama (8-1), #5 Oregon (9-1), #6 TCU (8-1), #9 Arizona State (8-1), #10 Ohio State (8-1), #14 Baylor (8-1), #20 Nebraska (8-1), #27 Colorado State (9-1), #28 Duke (8-1)

Highest Ranked 2-Loss Teams:  #1 Mississippi (8-2), #2 Auburn (7-2), #7 UCLA (8-2), #11 Georgia (7-2), #12 Boise State (7-2), #16 Michigan State (7-2), #17 Georgia Tech (8-2), #18 Clemson (7-2)

Highest Ranked 3-Loss Teams:  #13 LSU (7-3), #15 Miami-FL (6-3), #19 Oklahoma (6-3)

Scoring Data: Teams are averaging 28.4 PPG in games involving an FBS team, with an average margin of 19.0 PPG.  Points scored, points allowed, and margin data by division:

Division PF   PA   Mar  
SEC West 35.6 1 19.6 1 16.0 1
Pac-12 South 34.1 2 27.6 10 6.5 2
ACC Coastal 32.2 6 26.0 5 6.2 3
Big Ten East 30.1 8 24.5 4 5.5 4
Big 12 32.7 5 27.5 9 5.1 5
Big Ten West 29.4 10 24.4 3 5.0 6
Pac-12 North 34.1 3 29.2 13 4.9 7
ACC Atlantic 27.2 13 22.9 2 4.3 8
Mtn West Mountain 29.9 9 26.2 6 3.7 9
SEC East 30.2 7 26.6 7 3.6 10
C-USA East 32.9 4 31.6 17 1.3 11
MAC West 27.5 12 28.3 11 (0.8) 12
C-USA West 26.8 14 28.8 12 (2.0) 13
American 25.1 15 27.2 8 (2.1) 14
Sun Belt 28.0 11 30.6 16 (2.6) 15
Mtn West West 24.1 17 29.5 14 (5.4) 16
MAC East 24.4 16 30.0 15 (5.6) 17

There are 8 teams who are still undefeated in conference play:

  • ACC (1): Florida State
  • BIG TEN (2): Ohio State
  • CONFERENCE USA (2): Louisiana Tech, Marshall
  • MAC (1): Toledo
  • SEC (1): Mississippi State
  • SUN BELT (2): Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Lafayette

The Eliminator:  The Eliminator assumes (not necessarily justly) that a Power 5 conference team with three or more losses and a Group of 5 team with one or more losses will not make the playoff.  Under that assumption, 24 teams remain in play for the postseason playoff.

  • ACC (4): Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Duke
  • BIG 12 (3): TCU, Baylor, Kansas State
  • BIG TEN (5): Ohio State, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota
  • CONFERENCE USA (1): Marshall
  • PAC-12 (4): Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona
  • SEC (6): Mississippi, Auburn, Mississippi State, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri
  • INDEPENDENT (1): Notre Dame

Conference by Conference:  The conference championship games would be as follows if the season ended today.

  • ACC: Florida State (9-0, 6-0 ACC) vs. Duke (8-1, 4-1 ACC)
  • Big 12: Baylor, TCU, and Kansas State are all 5-1 in conference play. Kansas State plays at Baylor on Dec. 6.
  • Big Ten: Ohio State (8-1, 5-0 Big Ten) vs. Nebraska/Minnesota/Wisconsin (all 4-1 in conference play, all have to play one another)
  • Pac-12: Oregon (9-1, 6-1 Pac-12) vs. Arizona State (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12). Oregon has clinched the Pac-12 North.
  • SEC: Mississippi State (9-0, 5-0 SEC) vs. Missouri (7-2, 4-1 SEC).
  • American: Memphis leads the conference at 4-1.  East Carolina, Cincinnati, and Central Florida are each 3-1.
  • Conference USA: Louisiana Tech (7-3, 6-0 C-USA) at Marshall (9-0, 5-0 C-USA)
  • MAC: Toledo (6-3, 5-0 MAC) vs. Bowling Green (6-3, 4-1 MAC)
  • Mountain West: Nevada (6-3, 3-2 MWC)/San Diego State (5-4, 3-2 MWC) at Colorado State (9-1, 5-1 MWC).  Note that Colorado State is tied with Boise State and Utah State in the loss column.  Boise State beat Colorado State, Colorado State beat Utah State, and Utah State closes the season at Boise State.
  • Sun Belt: Georgia Southern (8-2, 7-0 Sun Belt) and Louisiana-Lafayette (6-3, 5-0 Sun Belt) are both undefeated in conference play.  They do not play each other this year.

Group of 5 Rankings: The Group of 5 stayed relatively stable in Week 11.  The committee will be deciding between a potentially undefeated team who played a poor SOS, and a Mountain West Conference champion.

  • #12 Boise State (7-2, 4-1 MWC)
  • #27 Colorado State (9-1, 5-1 MWC)
  • #35 Marshall (9-0, 5-0 C-USA)
  • #38 Utah State (7-3, 4-1 MWC)
  • #40 Louisiana-Lafayette (6-3, 5-0 Sun Belt)

FCS Rankings:  North Dakota State lost for the first time since October 13, 2012 on Saturday.

  1. Coastal Carolina (10-0, 3-0), .314
  2. Illinois State (8-1, 5-1), .302
  3. FBS (94-8), .295
  4. North Dakota State (9-1, 5-1), .287
  5. Villanova (8-2, 5-1), .270
  6. New Hampshire (8-1, 6-0), .269

Biggest Gains in KPI Rankings in Week 10

  1. Texas, +17 spots (moved from 73 to 56)
  2. Baylor, +14 spots (moved from 28 to 14)
  3. Arkansas State, +13 spots (moved from 64 to 51)
  4. Bowling Green, +13 spots (moved from 87 to 74)
  5. Western Kentucky, +13 spots (moved from 101 to 88)
  6. Tulane, +13 spots (moved from 107 to 94)

Biggest Falls in KPI Rankings in Week 10

  1. Iowa State, -20 spots (moved from 69 to 89)
  2. Houston, -16 spots (moved from 75 to 91)
  3. Iowa, -11 spots (moved from 54 to 65)
  4. Boston College, -10 spots (moved from 39 to 49)
  5. Indiana, -10 spots (moved from 68 to 78)

Offensive DIFFs (Differential between points scored and opponent’s points allowed)

  1. Baylor, +23.0
  2. TCU, +21.5
  3. Oregon, +20.9
  4. Michigan State, +20.3
  5. Marshall, +20.3
  6. Ohio State, +18.7
  7. Mississippi State, +16.3
  8. Florida State, +16.2
  9. Georgia, +16.1
  10. California, +15.9

Defensive DIFFs (Differential between points allowed and opponent’s points scored)

  1. Mississippi, +16.9
  2. Alabama, +15.9
  3. Stanford, +13.7
  4. LSU, +12.3
  5. Penn State, +10.4
  6. Auburn, +10.3
  7. Texas, +10.1
  8. Oklahoma, +8.9
  9. Miami-FL, +8.8
  10. Wisconsin, +8.8

Combined Offensive and Defensive DIFFs (Averaging Offensive and Defensive DIFFs)

  1. Mississippi, +28.8
  2. TCU, +27.5
  3. Baylor, +26.8
  4. Oregon, +25.9
  5. Auburn, +25.9
  6. Alabama, +25.4
  7. Marshall, +25.3
  8. Ohio State, +25.1
  9. Mississippi State, +23.8
  10. Michigan State, +23.5

Strength of Schedule (The top SOS by KPI, including home/road/neutral adjustments)

  1. Auburn, .150
  2. Tennessee, .142
  3. Mississippi, .115
  4. UCLA, .115
  5. Alabama, .107
  6. Arkansas, .102
  7. Oklahoma, .090
  8. Florida, .086
  9. Texas A&M, .079
  10. LSU, .075

Best Week 11 Wins by KPI Formula

  1. +0.79 #26 Texas A&M 41, at #2 Auburn 38
  2. +0.78 #10 Ohio State 49, at #16 Michigan State 37
  3. +0.75 #14 Baylor 48, at #19 Oklahoma 14
  4. +0.73 at #6 TCU 41, #22 Kansas State 20
  5. +0.69 at #9 Arizona State 55, #24 Notre Dame 31

Best Wins by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. +1.02 #7 UCLA 62, at #9 Arizona State 27 (Sept 25)
  2. +0.96 #11 Georgia 34, at #21 Missouri 0 (Oct 11)
  3. +0.90 #39 Virginia Tech 35, at #10 Ohio State 21 (Sept 6)
  4. +0.90 #23 Arizona 31, at #5 Oregon 24 (Oct 2)
  5. +0.85 at #4 Alabama 59, #26 Texas A&M 0 (Oct 18)
  6. +0.84 #2 Auburn 35, at #1 Mississippi 31 (Nov 1)
  7. +0.82 #5 Oregon 42, at #7 UCLA 30 (Oct 11)
  8. +0.82 at #1 Mississippi 23, #4 Alabama 17 (Oct 4)
  9. +0.80 at #3 Mississippi State 38, #2 Auburn 23 (Oct 11)
  10. +0.79 #26 Texas A&M 41, at #2 Auburn 38 (Nov 8)

Outlier Week 11 Games by KPI Formula

  1. 59.2% #26 Texas A&M 41, at #2 Auburn 38
  2. 49.7% #94 Tulane 31, at #91 Houston 24
  3. 42.9% at #3 Mississippi State 45, #120 FCS/Tennessee-Martin 16
  4. 41.1% #14 Baylor 48, at #19 Oklahoma 14
  5. 40.7% #10 Ohio State 49, at #37 Michigan State 37

Outlier Games by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. 82.7% #120 FCS/Northwestern State 30, at #41 Louisiana Tech 27 (Sept 20)
  2. 78.5% #39 Virginia Tech 35, at #10 Ohio State 21 (Sept 6)
  3. 78.2% #114 Texas-San Antonio 27, at #91 Houston 7 (Aug 29)
  4. 77.8% #78 Indiana 31, at #21 Missouri 27 (Sept 20)
  5. 72.3% #80 Washington State 28, at #29 Utah 27 (Sept 27)
  6. 65.7% #89 Iowa State 20, at #65 Iowa 17 (Sept 13)
  7. 63.6% #23 Arizona 31, at #5 Oregon 24 (Oct 2)
  8. 61.5% at #117 Connecticut 37, #64 Central Florida 27 (Nov 1)
  9. 59.3% #69 Syracuse 40, at #85 Central Michigan 3 (Sept 13)
  10. 59.2% #26 Texas A&M 41, at #2 Auburn 38 (Nov 8)

Most Accurate Week 10 Games by Expected Margin and EXPs (Numbers signify difference between actual and expected margins)

  1. 5.6% at #104 Old Dominion 38, #111 Florida International 35 (EXP Score: FIU 36-35)
  2. 5.6% at #101 San Diego State 35, #121 Idaho 21 (EXP Score: SDSU 34-20)
  3. 12.0% #57 Toledo 30, at #129 Kent State 20 (EXP Score: Toledo 30-20)
  4. 13.4% #48 Air Force 48, at #115 UNLV 21 (EXP Score: 39-20)
  5. 14.4% #25 Wisconsin 34, at #72 Purdue 16 (EXP Score: 38-19)

TV Schedule:  The following games with a 6-day network flex were confirmed for November 8:

  • Ohio State at Minnesota, 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, ABC
  • Clemson at Georgia Tech, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN
  • Temple at Penn State, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2
  • Iowa at Illinois, 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, BTN
  • Mississippi State at Alabama, 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, CBS
  • Nebraska at Wisconsin, 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, ABC
  • Oklahoma at Texas Tech, 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, ESPN
  • Indiana at Rutgers, 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN
  • Auburn at Georgia, 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
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