Week 12 KPI Epilogue: “The Home Stretch”

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Mississippi at #1:  Ole Miss remains atop the KPI Rankings despite having two losses.  While their non-conference schedule lacked any Power 5 conference opponents, they beat Boise State (current Mountain West leader), Memphis (American leader), and Louisiana-Lafayette (6-0 in the Sun Belt).  That, along with a win over Alabama has them slightly ahead of No. 2 Alabama for now.

Ohio State SOS:  I’m still going to bring up SOS.  Go figure.  Ohio State’s strength of schedule got helped this week by Virginia Tech (won at Duke), Navy (beat Sun Belt leader Georgia Southern), and Cincinnati (beat East Carolina Thursday) to vault OSU to a KPI SOS of 36.  A 12-1 Ohio State would very likely have a SOS better than a Big 12 champion at the end of the year.

Florida State Winning, But Not Pretty:  Style points aren’t usually measured in standings, but they are in college football rankings for whatever reason.  Florida State is one of two undefeated teams remaining (Marshall is the other).  Florida State is at No.7 in the KPI, due to both their SOS (No. 55) and how close many of their games have been.  Florida State was the only school to schedule three non-conference games against Power 5 conference teams.  Go figure.

Quality Wins:  Oregon (at UCLA, at Utah) and Auburn (at Mississippi, at Kansas State) are the only FBS teams to win multiple road games at KPI Top 25 teams.

The State of Georgia:  Both Georgia and Georgia Tech are in similar spots in their respective divisions.  Both have finished conference play at 6-2 but do not control their own destiny.  Georgia needs Missouri to lose one of two remaining games while Georgia Tech needs Duke to lose one of two remaining games.  Georgia Tech visits Georgia on Nov. 29 (12 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

FCS Week!:  The six remaining FBS vs. FCS games will all occur this week.  Four SEC teams (Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, and Florida) along with Army and BYU will host FCS teams.  FCS teams are a combined 8-94 (.078) vs. the FBS by an average score of 14.8-42.8 (-28.0 margin).

KPI in Games vs. Top-50 Only:  If all games against 51-129 were eliminated (including FCS games), the rankings would look like this:

  1. Oregon (3-1), .572
  2. Florida State (4-0), .550
  3. Mississippi (6-2), .476
  4. Baylor (3-1), .467
  5. Alabama (7-1), .464
  6. TCU (4-1), .464
  7. Ohio State (4-1), .438
  8. Wisconsin (2-1), .421
  9. Mississippi State (4-1), .411
  10. Georgia (5-2), .407
  11. Arizona State (3-1), .405
  12. Auburn (6-3), .365

There are 6 teams who are still undefeated in conference play:

  • ACC (1): Florida State
  • BIG TEN (2): Ohio State
  • CONFERENCE USA (2): Louisiana Tech, Marshall
  • SUN BELT (2): Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Lafayette

These teams are the highest ranked in the KPI Rankings based on number of losses:

  • Highest Ranked 0-Loss Team: #7 Florida State (10-0)
  • Highest Ranked 1-Loss Team: #2 Alabama (9-1)
  • Highest Ranked 2-Loss Team: #6 Georgia (8-2)
  • Highest Ranked 3-Loss Team: #5 Auburn (7-3)
  • Highest Ranked 4-Loss Team: #19 Miami-FL (6-4)
  • Highest Ranked 5-Loss Team: #28 Virginia Tech (5-5)
  • Highest Ranked 6-Loss Team: #51 Northwestern (4-6)

The Eliminator:  The Eliminator assumes (not necessarily justly) that a Power 5 conference team with three or more losses and a Group of 5 team with one or more losses will not make the playoff.  Under that assumption, 20 teams remain in play for the postseason playoff.

  • ACC (3): Florida State, Georgia Tech, Duke
  • BIG 12 (3): TCU, Baylor, Kansas State
  • BIG TEN (4): Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska
  • CONFERENCE USA (1): Marshall
  • PAC-12 (4): Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona
  • SEC (5): Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State, Missouri

Conference by Conference:  The conference championship games would be as follows if the season ended today.

  • ACC: Florida State (10-0, 7-0 ACC) has clinched the Atlantic Division.  Duke (8-2, 4-2 ACC) will represent the Coastal with two wins.  If Duke loses one of its final two games, Georgia Tech (9-2, 6-2 ACC) will win the Coastal.
  • Big 12: Baylor (8-1, 5-1 Big 12), TCU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12), and Kansas State (7-2, 5-1 Big 12) each have one conference loss. Kansas State plays at Baylor on Dec. 6.
  • Big Ten: Ohio State (9-1, 6-0 Big Ten) would clinch the East Division with one win or one Michigan State loss.  Michigan State (8-2, 5-1 Big Ten) can win the East with two wins and two Ohio State losses.  Wisconsin (8-2, 5-1 Big Ten) has a game lead in the West and controls its own destiny.  Minnesota (7-3, 4-2 Big Ten) controls its own destiny with games remaining at Nebraska and at Wisconsin.  Nebraska (8-2, 4-2 Big Ten) and Iowa (7-3, 4-2 Big Ten) are still alive but need help.
  • Pac-12: Oregon (9-1, 6-1 Pac-12) has clinched the Pac-12 North. There is a 4-way tie in the loss column in the Pac-12 South between USC (7-3, 6-2 Pac-12), UCLA (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12), Arizona State (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12), and Arizona (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12).
  • SEC: Alabama (9-1, 6-1 SEC) can clinch the SEC West with a win over Auburn Nov. 29.  Mississippi State (9-1, 5-1 SEC) and Mississippi (8-2, 4-2 SEC) both need two wins and an Alabama loss to win the West.  Missouri (8-2, 5-1 SEC) can win the SEC East with two wins.  If Missouri loses either of its last two games, Georgia (8-2, 6-2 SEC) will win the East.
  • American: Memphis (7-3, 5-1 American) leads the conference by one half game over Cincinnati (6-3, 4-1 American), and Central Florida (6-3, 4-1 American).
  • Conference USA: Marshall (10-0, 6-0 C-USA) has clinched the East.  Louisiana Tech (7-3, 6-0 C-USA) can clinch the West with one win or if UTEP beats Rice on Nov. 22.
  • MAC: Bowling Green (7-3, 5-1 MAC) has clinched the MAC East. Four teams: Northern Illinois (8-2, 5-1 MAC), Toledo (6-4, 5-1 MAC), Western Michigan (7-3, 5-1 MAC), and Central Michigan (7-4, 5-2 MAC) are still alive in the MAC West.
  • Mountain West: Colorado State (9-1, 5-1 MWC), Boise State (8-2, 5-1 MWC), and Utah State (8-3, 5-1 MWC) are tied atop the Mountain Division.  Nevada (6-4, 3-3 MWC), San Diego State (5-5, 3-3 MWC), and Fresno State (4-6, 3-3 MWC) are tied atop the West Division.
  • Sun Belt: Georgia Southern (8-3, 7-0 Sun Belt) and Louisiana-Lafayette (7-3, 5-0 Sun Belt) are both undefeated in conference play.  They do not play each other this year.

Group of 5 Rankings: The committee will be deciding between a potentially undefeated team who played a poor SOS, and a Mountain West Conference champion.

  • #14 Boise State (8-2, 5-1 MWC)
  • #26 Colorado State (9-1, 5-1 MWC)
  • #33 Marshall (10-0, 6-0 C-USA)
  • #40 Utah State (8-3, 5-1 MWC)
  • #41 Louisiana Tech (7-3, 6-0 C-USA)

FCS Rankings:  ESPN College Gameday will originate from Yale at Harvard on Saturday, marking the second time this season Gameday will travel to an FCS site.

  1. Coastal Carolina (11-0, 4-0), .314
  2. FBS (94-8), .294
  3. Villanova (9-2, 6-1), .289
  4. North Dakota State (10-1, 6-1), .286
  5. New Hampshire (9-1, 7-0), .282
  6. Jacksonville State (9-1, 7-0), .265

Biggest Gains in KPI Rankings in Week 12

  1. Northwestern, +19 spots (moved from 70 to 51)
  2. Northern Illinois, +14 spots (moved from 75 to 61)
  3. Oregon State, +14 spots (moved from 95 to 81)
  4. Penn State, +13 spots (moved from 71 to 58)
  5. Navy, +13 spots (moved from 81 to 68)

Biggest Falls in KPI Rankings in Week 12

  1. Illinois, -15 spots (moved from 58 to 73)
  2. San Jose State, -15 spots (moved from 93 to 108)
  3. Southern Miss, -14 spots (moved from 83 to 97)
  4. Arkansas State, -13 spots (moved from 51 to 64)
  5. Notre Dame, -12 spots (moved from 24 to 36)

Offensive DIFFs (Differential between points scored and opponent’s points allowed)

  1. Baylor, +23.6
  2. Oregon, +21.0
  3. TCU, +20.0
  4. Marshall, +19.4
  5. Michigan State, +18.4
  6. Ohio State, +17.8
  7. Georgia, +15.6
  8. Mississippi State, +15.3
  9. Florida State, +15.1
  10. California, +14.8

Defensive DIFFs (Differential between points allowed and opponent’s points scored)

  1. Mississippi, +16.5
  2. Alabama, +15.5
  3. Stanford, +13.5
  4. LSU, +12.2
  5. Texas, +11.0
  6. Penn State, +10.7
  7. Virginia Tech, +9.6
  8. Wisconsin, +9.2
  9. Auburn, +8.9
  10. Michigan, +8.7

Combined Offensive and Defensive DIFFs (Averaging Offensive and Defensive DIFFs)

  1. Mississippi, +28.4
  2. Baylor, +27.8
  3. Oregon, +25.5
  4. Marshall, +25.3
  5. Alabama, +25.1
  6. Ohio State, +24.5
  7. TCU, +24.0
  8. Wisconsin, +23.2
  9. Georgia, +23.0
  10. Michigan State, +22.2

Strength of Schedule (The top SOS by KPI, including home/road/neutral adjustments)

  1. Auburn, .165
  2. Tennessee, .127
  3. Alabama, .117
  4. Arkansas, .110
  5. UCLA, .110
  6. Mississippi, .106
  7. Miami (FL), .095
  8. Texas A&M, .086
  9. Florida, .085
  10. Oklahoma, .080

Best Week 12 Wins by KPI Formula

  1. +0.81 at #6 Georgia 34, #5 Auburn 7
  2. +0.81 at #2 Alabama 25, #9 Mississippi State 20
  3. +0.78 at #15 Wisconsin 59, #25 Nebraska 24
  4. +0.72 at #12 Georgia Tech 28, #21 Clemson 6
  5. +0.63 at #81 Oregon State 35, #17 Arizona State 27

Best Wins by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. +1.08 #6 Georgia 34, at #16 Missouri 0 (Oct 11)
  2. +0.96 #28 Virginia Tech 35, at #4 Ohio State 21 (Sept 6)
  3. +0.91 #20 Arizona 31, at #3 Oregon 24 (Oct 2)
  4. +0.86 #8 UCLA 62, at #17 Arizona State 27 (Sept 25)
  5. +0.85 at #1 Mississippi 23, #2 Alabama 17 (Oct 4)
  6. +0.85 #5 Auburn 35, at #1 Mississippi 31 (Nov 1)
  7. +0.83 #3 Oregon 42, at #8 UCLA 30 (Oct 11)
  8. +0.83 #4 Ohio State 49, at #13 Michigan State 37 (Nov 8)
  9. +0.82 #11 Baylor 48, at #18 Oklahoma 14 (Nov 8)
  10. +0.81 at #6 Georgia 34, #5 Auburn 7 (Nov 15)

Outlier Week 12 Games by KPI Formula

  1. 57.0% at #81 Oregon State 35, #17 Arizona State 27
  2. 55.2% #51 Northwestern 43, at #36 Notre Dame 40 (OT)
  3. 54.0% #102 Appalachian State 37, at #64 Arkansas State 32
  4. 52.6% #107 Hawaii 13, at #108 San Jose State 0
  5. 45.9% #28 Virginia Tech 17, at #35 Duke 16

Outlier Games by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. 84.5% #78 Indiana 31, at #16 Missouri 27 (Sept 20)
  2. 84.0% #123 FCS/Northwestern State 30, at #41 Louisiana Tech 27 (Sept 20)
  3. 77.1% #28 Virginia Tech 35, at #4 Ohio State 21 (Sept 6)
  4. 75.2% #77 Washington State 28, at #24 Utah 27 (Sept 27)
  5. 73.2% #112 Texas-San Antonio 27, at #91 Houston 7 (Aug 29)
  6. 70.0% #90 Iowa State 20, at #60 Iowa 17 (Sept 13)
  7. 63.2% at #119 Connecticut 37, #66 Central Florida 27 (Nov 1)
  8. 63.0% #70 Syracuse 40, at #87 Central Michigan 3 (Sept 13)
  9. 63.0% #114 Ball State 32, at #87 Central Michigan 29 (Oct 18)
  10. 62.3% #20 Arizona 31, at #3 Oregon 24 (Oct 2)

Most Accurate Week 12 Games by Expected Margin and EXPs (Numbers signify difference between actual and expected margins)

  1. 3% at #75 South Alabama 24, #99 Texas State 20 (EXP Score: Texas St 23.3-23.2)
  2. 1% #18 Oklahoma 42, at #89 Texas Tech 24 (EXP Score: Oklahoma 48-27)
  3. 5% at #106 Florida International 38, #80 Middle Tennessee 28 (EXP Score: FIU 32-30)
  4. 6% at #47 BYU 42, #116 UNLV 23 (EXP Score: BYU 48-20)
  5. 3% at #71 Bowling Green 30, #124 Kent State 20 (EXP Score: BG 30-20)

TV Schedule:  The following games with a 6-day network flex were confirmed for November 22:

  • Minnesota at Nebraska, 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, ESPN
  • Penn State at Illinois, 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, ESPN2
  • Rutgers at Michigan State, 12 p.m. ET, BTN
  • Indiana at Ohio State, 12 p.m. ET, BTN
  • SMU at Central Florida, 12 p.m. ET, ESPNEWS
  • Tulsa at Houston, 3 p.m. ET/2 p.m. CT, ESPN3
  • Wisconsin at Iowa, 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, ABC/ESPN2 Outer Market
  • Boston College at Florida State, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2 Outer Market
  • Arizona at Utah, 3:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. MT, ESPN
  • Maryland at Michigan, 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN
  • Tulane at East Carolina, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3
  • Stanford at California, 4 p.m. ET/1 p.m. PT, FOX Sports 1
  • South Florida at Memphis, 4 p.m. ET/3 p.m. CT, ESPNEWS
  • Colorado at Oregon, 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT, Pac-12 Networks
  • Miami (FL) at Virginia, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
  • Missouri at Tennessee, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
  • Vanderbilt at Mississippi State, 7:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. CT, SEC Network
  • USC at UCLA, 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT, ABC
  • Cincinnati at Connecticut, 8 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
  • Oregon State at Washington, 10:30 p.m. ET/7:30 p.m. PT, Pac-12 Networks
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