Week 13 KPI Epilogue: “Home Stretch”

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The season is finally far enough along where we can look at some real “if this team wins” and “if this team loses” scenarios.

Of seven championship games to be played, only one matchup has been determined.  All others have at least part of the conference title up for grabs entering Week 14.

There are six games this coming week scheduled between two teams both in the KPI Top 25:

  • #20 LSU at #22 Texas A&M (Thursday 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  • #17 Arkansas at #11 Missouri (Friday 2:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
  • #21 Arizona State at #16 Arizona (Friday 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
  • #13 Georgia Tech at #4 Georgia (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
  • #9 Mississippi State at #2 Mississippi (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
  • #7 Auburn at #1 Alabama (Saturday 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN/SEC Network)

What this means is that with such a small margin between teams in KPI, the final rankings will be determined on the field (novel concept, I know).  The gap between #2 and #8 is only .032.

Roll Tide:  Alabama controls its own destiny for a spot in the playoff, but their margin of error is thin.  Two wins and they will be in.  They have three sub-100 teams (Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic, and FCS/Western Carolina) on their non-conference schedule.

We Forgot About UCLA:  UCLA clinches the Pac-12 South with a win over Stanford on Friday.  UCLA has vaulted up to No. 3 in the KPI helped by the No. 5 SOS.  Getting Oregon, Washington, and Stanford from the Pac-12 North (along with non-conference games against Memphis, Virginia, and Texas) have been a huge asset.

Arizona:  Confirming Bruce Feldman’s tweet, Arizona’s combination of two road wins at Oregon and Utah are the best combination of road wins on the board.  The win at Oregon is the fourth best of the season (worth +.90), while the win at Utah is the 23rd best (worth +.75).  Arizona can still win the Pac-12 South with a win over Arizona State and a Stanford win over UCLA.

Shutouts: Arkansas and Mississippi State became the 7th and 8th teams to have multiple games in which they shut out their opponent.  The other six teams?  Alabama, Appalachian State, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, and Stanford.

Large Gaps:  Virginia Tech has the largest gap between best win and worst loss (win at Ohio State worth .96, loss vs. Wake Forest worth -.52) at 1.48.  The top five gaps between best win and worst loss by KPI:

  1. 1.479 Virginia Tech (Best Win at Ohio State, Worst Loss vs. Wake Forest)
  2. 1.476 Central Michigan (Best Win at Northern Illinois, Worst Loss vs. Syracuse)
  3. 1.466 Houston (Best Win at Memphis, Worst Loss vs. Texas-San Antonio)
  4. 1.347 Utah (Best Win at UCLA, Worst Loss vs. Washington State)
  5. 1.288 Georgia (Best Win at Missouri, Worst Loss at South Carolina)

Low Scoring: Wake Forest’s 6-3 double overtime win Saturday was the lowest scoring game since October 5, 2012 (BYU 6, Utah State 3).

KPI in Games vs. Top-50 Only:  If all games against 51-129 were eliminated (including FCS games), the rankings would look like this:

  1. Oregon (4-1), .533
  2. Alabama (7-1), .484
  3. Baylor (2-1), .479
  4. TCU (4-1), .475
  5. Ohio State (4-1), .461
  6. Mississippi State (4-1), .454
  7. Georgia (5-2), .444
  8. Florida State (6-0), .442
  9. Wisconsin (2-1), .418
  10. Missouri (5-1), .411
  11. UCLA (6-2), .396
  12. Mississippi (5-3), .384

There are 4 teams who are still undefeated in conference play:

  • ACC (1): Florida State
  • BIG TEN (2): Ohio State
  • CONFERENCE USA (1): Marshall
  • SUN BELT (2): Georgia Southern

These teams are the highest ranked in the KPI Rankings based on number of losses:

  • Highest Ranked 0-Loss Team: #8 Florida State (11-0)
  • Highest Ranked 1-Loss Team: #1 Alabama (10-1)
  • Highest Ranked 2-Loss Team: #3 UCLA (9-2)
  • Highest Ranked 3-Loss Team: #2 Mississippi (8-3)
  • Highest Ranked 4-Loss Team: #20 LSU (7-4)
  • Highest Ranked 5-Loss Team: #17 Arkansas (6-5)
  • Highest Ranked 6-Loss Team: #31 Tennessee (5-6)

The Eliminator:  The Eliminator assumes (not necessarily justly) that a Power 5 conference team with three or more losses and a Group of 5 team with one or more losses will not make the playoff.  Under that assumption, 18 teams remain in play for the postseason playoff.

  • ACC (2): Florida State, Georgia Tech
  • BIG 12 (3): TCU, Baylor, Kansas State
  • BIG TEN (3): Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State
  • CONFERENCE USA (1): Marshall
  • PAC-12 (4): UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State
  • SEC (4): Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State, Missouri

Conference by Conference:  The conference championship games would be as follows if the season ended today.

  • ACC: Florida State (11-0, 8-0 ACC) has clinched the Atlantic Division.  Georgia Tech (9-2, 6-2 ACC) has clinched the Coastal Division.
  • Big 12: Baylor (9-1, 6-1 Big 12), TCU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12), and Kansas State (8-2, 6-1 Big 12) each have one conference loss. Kansas State plays at Baylor on Dec. 6.
  • Big Ten: Ohio State (10-1, 7-0 Big Ten) has clinched the East Division.  The winner of the Minnesota (8-3, 5-2 Big Ten) at Wisconsin (9-2, 6-1 Big Ten) game Nov. 29 will win the West Division.
  • Pac-12: Oregon (10-1, 7-1 Pac-12) has clinched the Pac-12 North. UCLA (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12) wins the Pac-12 South with a win Friday. If UCLA loses, the winner of the Arizona State (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12) at Arizona (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12) game wins the South.
  • SEC: Alabama (10-1, 6-1 SEC) can clinch the SEC West with a win over Auburn Nov. 29 or a Mississippi State loss.  Mississippi State (10-1, 6-1 SEC) wins the West with a win and an Alabama loss.  Missouri (9-2, 6-1 SEC) can win the SEC East by beating Arkansas Friday.  If Missouri loses, Georgia (9-2, 6-2 SEC) will win the East.
  • American: Memphis (8-3, 6-1 American) leads the conference by one half game over Cincinnati (7-3, 5-1 American), and Central Florida (7-3, 5-1 American).
  • Conference USA: Marshall (11-0, 7-0 C-USA) has clinched the East.  Rice (7-4, 5-2 C-USA) will play Louisiana Tech (7-4, 6-1 C-USA) for the West Division championship.
  • MAC: Bowling Green (7-3, 5-1 MAC) has clinched the MAC East. Three teams: Northern Illinois (9-2, 6-1 MAC), Toledo (7-4, 6-1 MAC), and Western Michigan (8-3, 6-1 MAC) are still alive in the MAC West.
  • Mountain West: Colorado State (10-1, 6-1 MWC), Boise State (9-2, 6-1 MWC), and Utah State (9-3, 6-1 MWC) are tied atop the Mountain Division.  Nevada (6-4, 3-3 MWC), San Diego State (6-5, 4-3 MWC), and Fresno State (5-6, 4-3 MWC) are tied atop the West Division.
  • Sun Belt: Georgia Southern (8-3, 7-0 Sun Belt) leads the conference by one game.

Group of 5 Rankings: The committee will be deciding between a potentially undefeated team who played a poor SOS, and a Mountain West Conference champion.

  • #18 Boise State (9-2, 5-1 MWC)
  • #26 Marshall (11-0, 7-0 C-USA)
  • #30 Colorado State (10-1, 6-1 MWC)
  • #41 Memphis (8-3, 6-1 American)
  • #42 Utah State (9-3, 6-1 MWC)

FCS Rankings:  The 24-team FCS Playoff bracket was released Sunday morning.  All teams ranked in the top 21 of the KPI who were eligible to make the bracket did so.

Biggest Gains in KPI Rankings in Week 13

  1. Virginia, +18 spots (moved from 63 to 45)
  2. Arkansas, +17 spots (moved from 34 to 17)
  3. North Carolina, +13 spots (moved from 49 to 36)
  4. Minnesota, +12 spots (moved from 39 to 27)
  5. Toledo, +12 spots (moved from 59 to 47)
  6. Northern Illinois, +12 spots (moved from 61 to 49)

Biggest Falls in KPI Rankings in Week 13

  1. Louisiana-Lafayette, -16 spots (moved from 43 to 59)
  2. Louisiana Tech, -15 spots (moved from 56 to 41)
  3. Iowa State, -13 spots (moved from 90 to 103)
  4. Virginia Tech, -12 spots (moved from 28 to 40)
  5. Air Force, -11 spots (moved from 42 to 53)
  6. Nevada, -11 spots (moved from 52 to 63)
  7. Penn State, -11 spots (moved from 58 to 69)

Offensive DIFFs (Differential between points scored and opponent’s points allowed)

  1. Baylor, +23.1
  2. Georgia, +19.9
  3. TCU, +19.8
  4. Oregon, +19.5
  5. Michigan State, +17.8
  6. Ohio State, +17.6
  7. Marshall, +17.4
  8. North Carolina, +15.9
  9. Mississippi State, +15.8
  10. Auburn, +15.0

Defensive DIFFs (Differential between points allowed and opponent’s points scored)

  1. Mississippi, +15.2
  2. Stanford, +14.0
  3. Alabama, +12.8
  4. LSU, +12.2
  5. Texas, +11.0
  6. Arkansas, +10.5
  7. Penn State, +10.5
  8. Clemson, +9.1
  9. Virginia Tech, +9.1
  10. Oklahoma, +8.4

Combined Offensive and Defensive DIFFs (Averaging Offensive and Defensive DIFFs)

  1. Baylor, +26.5
  2. Alabama, +26.2
  3. Georgia, +25.7
  4. Oregon, +25.0
  5. Mississippi, +24.2
  6. Marshall, +24.1
  7. TCU, +23.5
  8. Arkansas, +23.3
  9. Mississippi State, +23.2
  10. Ohio State, +23.0

Strength of Schedule (The top SOS by KPI, including home/road/neutral adjustments)

  1. Arkansas, .138
  2. Tennessee, .129
  3. Auburn, .121
  4. Mississippi, .117
  5. UCLA, .109
  6. Texas A&M, .103
  7. Miami (FL), .087
  8. Colorado, .077
  9. LSU, .076
  10. Alabama, .074

Best Week 13 Wins by KPI Formula

  1. +0.92 at #17 Arkansas 30, #2 Mississippi 0
  2. +0.75 #16 Arizona 42, at #29 Utah 10
  3. +0.63 #27 Minnesota 28, at #32 Nebraska 24
  4. +0.60 #36 North Carolina 45, at #43 Duke 20
  5. +0.51 #25 Louisville 31, at #38 Notre Dame 28

Best Wins by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. +1.11 #4 Georgia 34, at #11 Missouri 0 (Oct 11)
  2. +0.96 #40 Virginia Tech 35, at #5 Ohio State 21 (Sept 6)
  3. +0.90 at #17 Arkansas 30, #2 Mississippi 0 (Nov 22)
  4. +0.90 #16 Arizona 31, at #6 Oregon 24 (Oct 2)
  5. +0.87 #6 Oregon 42, at #3 UCLA 30 (Oct 11)
  6. +0.85 at #2 Mississippi 23, #1 Alabama 17 (Oct 4)
  7. +0.85 #3 UCLA 62, at #21 Arizona State 27 (Sept 25)
  8. +0.83 #15 Baylor 48, at #24 Oklahoma 14 (Nov 8)
  9. +0.83 at #4 Georgia 34, #7 Auburn 7 (Nov 15)
  10. +0.83 #5 Ohio State 49, at #14 Michigan State 37 (Nov 8)

Outlier Week 13 Games by KPI Formula

  1. 58.0% #94 Appalachian State 35, at #59 Louisiana-Lafayette 16
  2. 57.1% #90 Fresno State 40, at #63 Nevada 20
  3. 54.8% at #17 Arkansas 30, #2 Mississippi 0
  4. 47.1% #36 North Carolina 45, at #43 Duke 20
  5. 44.0% at #106 Wake Forest 6, #40 Virginia Tech 3 (2OT)

Outlier Games by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. 90.3% #79 Indiana 31, at #11 Missouri 27 (Sept 20)
  2. 84.4% #40 Virginia Tech 35, at #5 Ohio State 21 (Sept 6)
  3. 80.8% #116 Texas-San Antonio 27, at #93 Houston 7 (Aug 29)
  4. 78.5% #122 FCS/Northwestern State 30, at #56 Louisiana Tech 27 (Sept 20)
  5. 74.9% #103 Iowa State 20, at #57 Iowa 17 (Sept 13)
  6. 73.8% #83 Washington State 28, at #29 Utah 27 (Sept 27)
  7. 66.6% #89 Central Michigan 34, at #49 Northern Illinois 17 (Oct 11)
  8. 65.3% #78 Syracuse 40, at #89 Central Michigan 3 (Sept 13)
  9. 63.6% at #117 Connecticut 37, #67 Central Florida 27 (Nov 1)
  10. 60.7% #29 Utah 30, at #3 UCLA 28 (Oct 4)

Most Accurate Week 13 Games by Expected Margin and EXPs (Numbers signify difference between actual and expected margins)

  1. 0.4% at #21 Arizona State 52, #83 Washington State 31 (EXP Score: Arizona State 52-31)
  2. 5.3% #25 Louisville 31, at #38 Notre Dame 28 (EXP Score: Louisville 31.1-31.0)
  3. 13.4% at #30 Colorado State 58, #104 New Mexico 20 (EXP Score: Colorado State 49-22)
  4. 13.8% #65 Western Michigan 32, at #89 Central Michigan 20 (EXP Score: WMU 31-26)
  5. 14.9% at #4 Georgia 55, #122 FCS/Charleston Southern 9 (EXP Score: Georgia 65-8)

TV Schedule:  The following games with a 6-day network flex were confirmed for November 29:

  • South Carolina at Clemson, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN
  • Michigan at Ohio State, 12 p.m. ET, ABC
  • Kentucky at Louisville, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2
  • Utah at Colorado, 1 p.m. ET/11 a.m. MT, Pac-12 Networks
  • Florida at Florida State, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
  • Notre Dame at USC, 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT, FOX
  • Michigan State at Penn State, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2 Outer Market
  • Baylor vs. Texas Tech, 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, ABC/ESPN2 Outer Market
  • BYU at California, 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT, Pac-12 Networks
  • Pittsburgh at Miami (FL), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
  • Wake Forest at Duke, 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU
  • Oregon at Oregon State, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
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