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Week 14 KPI Epilogue: “Tough Calls”

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Several things happened on Saturday that could trigger the College Football Playoff Selection Committee to set some precedent for decisions in their first year:

J.T. Barrett Injury:  Injuries are part of the game.  And certainly everyone hopes that J.T. Barrett is back healthy very quickly.

The Barrett injury is already being compared to Kenyon Martin’s injury in the 2000 Conference USA Men’s Basketball Tournament.  There is a difference, however.  Cincinnati’s men’s basketball team was hurt in seeding, not selection.  Big picture, the seeding is not nearly as important as selection.  A team has to be in to have a chance.

A lot of stock will be placed in Ohio State’s performance on Saturday vs. Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game.  An Ohio State loss Saturday likely renders either point moot.  A win Saturday and Ohio State should be judged on the totality of its resume – both good and bad.  A 12-1 Ohio State will be right there, regardless of who there quarterback is.  A single injury can’t undo what has been accomplished to date.

Conference Championship Game Upsets:  If Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, and Florida State win their Power 5 conference championship game, the process is rendered relatively simple.  If one stumbles (to Missouri, Wisconsin, Arizona, or Georgia Tech), the process gets a bit more jumbled.  If each of those four major favorites have a 50% chance of winning (likely higher), the chances all four win is 6.3%.  The Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC will match a 11-1 team vs. a 10-2 team.  The ACC will match a 12-0 team vs. a 10-2 team.  This is where the curve ball will come.  An unexpected championship game result knocked a team out of the top two often in the old BCS system.  The one who loses could be the conference ultimately left out of the playoff.  If two or more of those four favorites lose, the last spot into the playoff will be very, very interesting and won’t necessarily be a conference champion.

Ole Miss Resume:  The KPI has loved Mississippi for a while now.  Admittedly, I have been running EXP models based on the projected results for the rest of the season for several weeks now, and each week it’s the Rebels who are higher than they “should be”.  The reason is simple.  Outside their FCS opponent, their three non-conference opponents combined to go 27-9 (Boise State, UL-Lafayette, Memphis).  They are the only team to beat Alabama, and also beat 10-2 Mississippi State.  I don’t believe Ole Miss is making the play-off at 9-3, but I do believe they will finish at or near the top in the KPI Rankings.  They are likely to be my one miss (no pun intended, I swear).

The SEC finished 5-6 in non-conference games against Power 5 conference opponents after going 0-4 vs. the ACC on Saturday.  Conversely, the league went 43-1 against all other non-conference teams.  The mantra: no bad losses.  The SEC West finished 10-4 against the SEC East, with all four losses coming to the top two SEC East teams (Missouri and Georgia).

The Auburn-Alabama Game was the highest scoring SEC game of the season (99 points), surpassing Georgia’s 63-31 win at Kentucky on November 8.

KPI in Games vs. Top-50 Only:  If all games against 51-129 were eliminated (including FCS games), the rankings would look like this:

  1. Central Michigan (1-0), .741
  2. Oregon (4-1), .533
  3. Baylor (2-1), .486
  4. TCU (4-1), .464
  5. Alabama (8-1), .459
  6. Georgia (5-2), .448
  7. Ohio State (4-1), .443
  8. Florida State (7-0), .439
  9. Air Force (2-1), .423
  10. Mississippi (6-3), .423

There are 3 teams who finished undefeated in conference play:  Florida State (ACC), Ohio State (Big Ten), and Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)

These teams are the highest ranked in the KPI Rankings based on number of losses:

  • Highest Ranked 0-Loss Team: #5 Florida State (12-0)
  • Highest Ranked 1-Loss Team: #2 Alabama (11-1)
  • Highest Ranked 2-Loss Team: #10 Georgia Tech (10-2)
  • Highest Ranked 3-Loss Team: #1 Mississippi (9-3)
  • Highest Ranked 4-Loss Team: #7 Auburn (8-4)
  • Highest Ranked 5-Loss Team: #27 Texas A&M (7-5)
  • Highest Ranked 6-Loss Team: #19 Arkansas (6-6)

Note that five of the seven teams on this list are from the SEC West.

The Eliminator:  The Eliminator assumes (not necessarily justly) that a Power 5 conference team with three or more losses and a Group of 5 team with one or more losses will not make the playoff.  Under that assumption, 13 teams remain in play for the postseason playoff.

  • ACC (2): Florida State, Georgia Tech
  • BIG 12 (3): TCU, Baylor, Kansas State
  • BIG TEN (3): Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State
  • PAC-12 (2): Oregon, Arizona
  • SEC (3): Alabama, Missouri, Mississippi State

There are a total of 6 teams remaining from a Power 5 conference with zero or one loss:  Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Florida State, TCU, and Baylor.

Group of 5 Rankings: Boise State is likely headed to one of the New Year’s Six bowl games with a win in the Mountain West Championship Game.

  • #11 Boise State (10-2, 7-1 Mountain West)
  • #29 Colorado State (10-2, 6-2 Mountain West)
  • #33 Marshall (11-1, 7-1 Conference USA)
  • #34 Air Force (9-3, 5-3 Mountain West)
  • #40 Louisiana Tech (8-4, 7-1 Conference USA)

Biggest Gains in KPI Rankings in Week 14

  1. Western Kentucky, +21 spots (moved from 86 to 65)
  2. Stanford, +19 spots (moved from 51 to 32)
  3. Air Force, +19 spots (moved from 53 to 34)
  4. Louisiana Tech, +16 spots (moved from 56 to 40)
  5. North Carolina State, +12 spots (moved from 55 to 43)

Biggest Falls in KPI Rankings in Week 14

  1. Purdue, -19 spots (moved from 80 to 99)
  2. Northwestern, -14 spots (moved from 54 to 68)
  3. Wyoming, -13 spots (moved from 81 to 94)
  4. South Carolina, -12 spots (moved from 39 to 51)
  5. Maryland, -11 spots (moved from 37 to 48)

Offensive DIFFs (Differential between points scored and opponent’s points allowed)

  1. Baylor, +21.6
  2. TCU, +19.9
  3. Oregon, +19.2
  4. Marshall, +18.0
  5. Georgia, +18.0
  6. Ohio State, +17.8
  7. Michigan State, +17.4
  8. Auburn, +15.8
  9. Alabama, +14.6
  10. Boise State, +14.6

Defensive DIFFs (Differential between points allowed and opponent’s points scored)

  1. Mississippi, +15.7
  2. Stanford, +14.6
  3. LSU, +12.6
  4. Alabama, +10.6
  5. Penn State, +10.6
  6. Arkansas, +10.3
  7. Texas, +10.0
  8. Clemson, +9.4
  9. Oklahoma, +8.9
  10. Virginia Tech, +8.6

Combined Offensive and Defensive DIFFs (Averaging Offensive and Defensive DIFFs)

  1. Alabama, +25.2
  2. Mississippi, +24.8
  3. Oregon, +24.7
  4. TCU, +24.7
  5. Georgia, +23.6
  6. Baylor, +23.2
  7. Michigan State, +23.1
  8. Marshall, +22.4
  9. Ohio State, +22.3
  10. Mississippi State, +21.1

Strength of Schedule (The top SOS by KPI, including home/road/neutral adjustments)

  1. Arkansas, .150
  2. Auburn, .138
  3. Mississippi, .122
  4. UCLA, .104
  5. Texas A&M, .099
  6. Tennessee, .098
  7. LSU, .080
  8. Alabama, .077
  9. Washington State, .073
  10. Miami (FL), .072

Best Week 14 Wins by KPI Formula

  1. +0.87     #32 Stanford 31, at #9 UCLA 10
  2. +0.79     at #1 Mississippi 31, #15 Mississippi State 17
  3. +0.73     #65 Western Kentucky 67, at #33 Marshall 66 (OT)
  4. +0.67     #10 Georgia Tech 30, at #8 Georgia 24 (OT)
  5. +0.59     at #2 Alabama 55, #7 Auburn 44

Best Wins by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. +1.13     #8 Georgia 34, at #12 Missouri 0 (Oct 11)
  2. +1.00     at #19 Arkansas 30, #1 Mississippi 0 (Nov 22)
  3. +0.98     #39 Virginia Tech 35, at #3 Ohio State 21 (Sept 6)
  4. +0.90     #13 Arizona 31, at #4 Oregon 24 (Oct 2)
  5. +0.87     #32 Stanford 31, at #9 UCLA 10 (Nov 28)
  6. +0.87     #1 Mississippi 35, #11 Boise State 13 (Aug 28)
  7. +0.86     #3 Ohio State 49, at #16 Michigan State 37 (Nov 8)
  8. +0.86     at #1 Mississippi 23, #2 Alabama 17 (Oct 4)
  9. +0.84     #17 Baylor 48, at #23 Oklahoma 14 (Nov 8)
  10. +0.83     #50 Duke 31, at #10 Georgia Tech 25 (Oct 11)

Outlier Week 14 Games by KPI Formula

  1. 68.4%    #32 Stanford 31, at #9 UCLA 10
  2. 59.2%    #65 Western Kentucky 67, at #33 Marshall 66 (OT)
  3. 52.9%    #107 Ball State 41, at #79 Bowling Green 24
  4. 48.8%    #71 Pittsburgh 35, at #36 Miami (FL) 23
  5. 38.7%    #10 Georgia Tech 30, at #8 Georgia 24 (OT)

Outlier Games by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. 87.9%    #80 Indiana 31, at #12 Missouri 27 (Sept 20)
  2. 82.6%    #122 FCS/Northwestern State 30, at #40 Louisiana Tech 27 (Sept 20)
  3. 82.2%    #39 Virginia Tech 35, at #3 Ohio State 21 (Sept 6)
  4. 74.5%    #87 Washington State 28, at #28 Utah 27 (Sept 27)
  5. 72.8%    #110 Texas-San Antonio 27, at #86 Houston 7 (Aug 29)
  6. 71.2%    #105 Iowa State 20, at #61 Iowa 17 (Sept 13)
  7. 70.0%    #92 Central Michigan 34, at #44 Northern Illinois 17 (Oct 11)
  8. 68.4%    #32 Stanford 31, at #9 UCLA 10 (Nov 28)
  9. 66.5%    #84 Syracuse 40, at #92 Central Michigan 3 (Sept 13)
  10. 66.4%    at #114 Connecticut 37, #63 Central Florida 27 (Nov 1)

Most Accurate Week 14 Games by Expected Margin and EXPs (Numbers signify difference between actual and expected margins)

  1. 5.0%      at #39 Virginia Tech 24, #55 Virginia 20 (EXP Score: VT 23-19)
  2. 5.1%      at #46 Memphis 41, #114 Connecticut 10 (EXP Score: Memphis 41-9)
  3. 5.9%      #35 West Virginia 37, at #105 Iowa State 24 (EXP Score: WVU 39-25)
  4. 6.4%      at #97 New Mexico 36, #94 Wyoming 30 (EXP Score: New Mexico 34-28)
  5. 7.8%      #95 Ohio 24, at #119 Miami (OH) 21 (EXP Score: Ohio 25-24)

TV Schedule:  The following games with a 6-day network flex were confirmed for December 6:

  • Iowa State at TCU, 12 p.m. ET/11 a.m. CT, ABC
  • Houston at Cincinnati, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN
  • C-USA Championship: Louisiana Tech at Marshall, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2
  • Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, 3:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. CT, FOX Sports 1
  • Kansas State at Baylor, 7:45 p.m. ET/6:45 p.m. CT, ESPN
  • ACC Championship: Georgia Tech vs. Florida State, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
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