Week 15 KPI FBS Epilogue: “The Decision”

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Decision Day is here.  And frankly, there are six teams with an argument and Year One of football’s version of a selection process will not be clean after all.

First things first, the College Football Selection Committee is a distinguished group of people who want to get this right.  They have been tasked with a difficult process, and yet have been chosen because of the level of integrity they bring.  While reasonable minds can disagree, they have a tough decision and whatever it is it should be respected.

The six teams (Alabama, Baylor, Florida State, Ohio State, Oregon, and TCU) all either won their conference championship game, or in the Big 12’s case, shared their conference championship (yes, I know Baylor beat TCU).  Cases can be made for every one of them

I have repeatedly stated that I like to know my path to the playoff going into the season.  In college basketball, I know if I win my conference tournament, then I’m making the NCAA Tournament.  If I don’t, I’m at the mercy of the selection committee.  We can revisit that at another time though.

By KPI Rankings, the math projects Alabama vs. Florida State in the Sugar Bowl and Ohio State vs. Oregon in the Rose Bowl.

KPI FBS Resumes 2 12-7

KPI FBS Resumes 12-7

KPI Graphic Temp

There will be several storylines in play over the next few days beyond the obvious:

  • But first, the obvious. Whichever two teams (at least one of which will likely be a Big 12 team) are left out of the playoff will have a legitimate gripe.  Deciphering the cut line is splitting hairs.
  • There are several power conference teams at 6-6 (or even 7-5) that will be left without a bowl game. There are more bowl eligible teams than bowls.
  • There are many bowl games matching up Power 5 conference teams against one another and pairing up Group of 5 teams, with few crossover matchups between the two groups.

Happy Bowl Season!

KPI in Games vs. Top-50 Only:  If all games against 51-129 were eliminated (including FCS games), the rankings would look like this:

  1. Central Michigan (1-0), .777
  2. Oregon (5-1), .582
  3. Ohio State (5-1), .548
  4. Alabama (9-1), .499
  5. Baylor (3-1), .493
  6. Florida State (8-0), .471
  7. TCU (4-1), .439
  8. Air Force (2-1), .430
  9. Mississippi (6-3), .430
  10. Marshall (1-0), .406

These teams are the highest ranked in the KPI Rankings based on number of losses:

  • Highest Ranked 0-Loss Team: #5 Florida State (13-0)
  • Highest Ranked 1-Loss Team: #1 Alabama (12-1)
  • Highest Ranked 2-Loss Team: #12 Boise State (11-2)
  • Highest Ranked 3-Loss Team: #2 Mississippi (9-3)
  • Highest Ranked 4-Loss Team: #7 Auburn (8-4)
  • Highest Ranked 5-Loss Team: #26 Texas A&M (7-5)
  • Highest Ranked 6-Loss Team: #19 Arkansas (6-6)

The Eliminator:  The Eliminator assumes (not necessarily justly) that a Power 5 conference team with three or more losses and a Group of 5 team with one or more losses will not make the playoff.  Under that assumption, 8 teams remain in play for the postseason playoff.

  • ACC (1): Florida State
  • BIG 12 (2): TCU, Baylor
  • BIG TEN (2): Ohio State, Michigan State
  • PAC-12 (1): Oregon
  • SEC (2): Alabama, Mississippi State

I know.  It ended up exactly eight teams.  That wasn’t by design, and it won’t land this clean every year.

There are a total of 6 teams remaining from a Power 5 conference with zero or one loss:  Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Florida State, TCU, and Baylor.

Group of 5 Rankings: Only the five champions from the Group of 5 conferences are eligible for the automatic bid into a New Year’s Six Bowl:

  • #12 Boise State (11-2, 7-1 Mountain West)
  • #27 Marshall (12-1, 7-1 Conference USA)
  • #38 Northern Illinois (11-2, 7-1 MAC)
  • #39 Cincinnati (9-3, 7-1 American)
  • #44 Memphis (9-3, 7-1 American)
  • #57 Central Florida (9-3, 7-1 American)
  • #60 Georgia Southern (9-3, 8-0 Sun Belt)

Combined Offensive and Defensive DIFFs (Averaging Offensive and Defensive DIFFs).  Offensive and Defensive DIFFs (along with all team numbers) are available here.

  1. Ohio State, +26.2
  2. Oregon, +26.0
  3. Alabama, +26.0
  4. TCU, +25.5
  5. Mississippi, +24.8
  6. Baylor, +23.5
  7. Michigan State, +23.5
  8. Georgia, +23.3
  9. Marshall, +21.9
  10. Mississippi State, +21.2

Strength of Schedule among Power Conference teams with 0 or 1 loss (The top SOS by KPI, including home/road/neutral adjustments)

  1. Alabama (#7), .089
  2. Oregon (#43), .026
  3. Florida State (#47), .024
  4. Ohio State (#48), .019
  5. TCU (#70), -.024
  6. Baylor (#79), -.054

Best Wins by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. +1.06 #6 Georgia 34, at #13 Missouri 0 (Oct 11)
  2. +1.02 Big Ten Championship:  #3 Ohio State 59, #17 Wisconsin 0 (Dec 6)
  3. +1.01 #43 Virginia Tech 35, at #3 Ohio State 21 (Sept 6)
  4. +1.00 at #19 Arkansas 30, #2 Mississippi 0 (Nov 22)
  5. +0.92 #15 Arizona 31, at #4 Oregon 24 (Oct 2)
  6. +0.89 #32 Stanford 31, at #8 UCLA 10 (Nov 28)
  7. +0.88 #2 Mississippi 35, #12 Boise State 13 (Aug 28)
  8. +0.87 at #2 Mississippi 23, #1 Alabama 17 (Oct 4)
  9. +0.86 #3 Ohio State 49, at #16 Michigan State 37 (Nov 8)
  10. +0.83 at #35 West Virginia 41, #11 Baylor 27 (Oct 18)

Outlier Games by KPI Formula – FULL SEASON

  1. 3% #43 Virginia Tech 35, at #3 Ohio State 21 (Sept 6)
  2. 5% #85 Indiana 31, at #13 Missouri 27 (Sept 20)
  3. 7% #122 FCS/Northwestern State 30, at #47 Louisiana Tech 27 (Sept 20)
  4. 2% at #121 Connecticut 37, #57 Central Florida 27 (Nov 1)
  5. 1% #86 Washington State 28, at #28 Utah 27 (Sept 27)
  6. 8% #89 Central Michigan 34, at #38 Northern Illinois 17 (Oct 11)
  7. 3% #110 Texas-San Antonio 27, at #87 Houston 7 (Aug 29)
  8. 9% #102 Iowa State 20, at #63 Iowa 17 (Sept 13)
  9. 2% #32 Stanford 31, at #8 UCLA 10 (Nov 28)
  10. 8% #83 Syracuse 40, at #89 Central Michigan 3 (Sept 13)
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