MBB Data Points: January 13, 2015

Upset Sunday:  Arizona, Duke, and Wisconsin all lost on Sunday yet all remained in the KPI Top 10 Rankings.  All three losses were on the road to three teams who have a combined record of 33-16.

Virginia vs. Kentucky:  Virginia has three of the top 11 wins of the season while Kentucky has two of the top 5.  Both resumes are far and away the best of anyone right now.  Virginia and Kentucky are No. 1 and No. 2 in defensive points allowed, yet are No. 118 and No. 33 in points scored.

Undefeated Teams:  While there is much talk about only have two unbeaten teams remaining, only five teams have zero or one loss:

• 0-Loss Teams: #1 Virginia (15-0), #2 Kentucky (15-0)
• 1-Loss Teams: #4 Villanova (15-1), #5 Duke (14-1), #8 Gonzaga (16-1)
• 2-Loss Teams: 17 teams have two losses

Strength of Schedule:  Texas Southern has the strongest SOS in the country through January 12.  Kansas will eventually pass Texas Southern and is likely to finish with the No. 1 SOS for the second consecutive season.

1. #139 Texas Southern (6-10), .186
2. #3 Kansas (13-2), .156
3. #120 Long Beach State (7-11), .147
4. #7 VCU (13-3), .130
5. #1 Virginia (15-0), .108
6. #310 Coppin State (1-15), .106
7. #38 Georgia (9-5), .104
8. #14 North Carolina (12-4), .102
9. #2 Kentucky (15-0), .098
10. #65 UCLA (10-7), .093

Dominant at Home:  Home teams are 1,976-688 (.742) while road teams have a .258 winning percentage.

Scoring is Down:  Scoring is down 4.47 points per game, with 55.5% of the decrease coming from fewer made 2-pt  field goals, 42.9% from fewer made free throws, and only 1.7% from fewer made 3’s.

Tweets of the Week:  Some of the best KPI nuggets of the week:

By KPI EXPs, 82% of results are expected, 18% are not. MT @MedcalfByESPN: It's important to recognize that anomalies occur in the CBB season

— KPI Sports (@KPIsports) January 7, 2015

To points made by @franfraschilla, @RobDauster, @jerrymeyer247: Wed. was lowest scoring (62.9 PPG) & slowest (63.7 poss/game) day this year.

— KPI Sports (@KPIsports) January 8, 2015

To @GaryParrishCBS point on @CBSSportsCBB podcast: Ole Miss 2nd team this year to lose >49% FG, >49% 3pt, >85% FT. Drake (at WMU) the other.

— KPI Sports (@KPIsports) January 9, 2015

Of the 11 teams who have played consecutive OT games prior to Kentucky doing it today, only 3 (Oregon, Texas State, Army) have won both.

— KPI Sports (@KPIsports) January 10, 2015

Slowest game of year. UMKC-NMSU tonight 3rd slowest MT @JohnGasaway: UNI vs Drake: 48 possessions. That's about as slow as humanly possible.

— KPI Sports (@KPIsports) January 11, 2015

Top 10 Wins by KPI – Week of Jan 5-11, 2015

1. +0.94 #52 Wyoming 60, at #29 Colorado State 54 (Jan 7)
2. +0.93 #9 Iowa State 74, at #16 West Virginia 72 (Jan 10)
3. +0.90 #19 Oklahoma 70, at #26 Texas 49 (Jan 5)
4. +0.89 #1 Virginia 62, at #31 Notre Dame 56 (Jan 10)
5. +0.85 #3 Kansas 56, at #17 Baylor 55 (Jan 7)
6. +0.85 at #25 N.C. State 87, #5 Duke 75 (Jan 11)
7. +0.83 #31 Notre Dame 71, at #14 North Carolina 70 (Jan 5)
8. +0.79 #4 Villanova 90, at #40 St. John’s 72 (Jan 6)
9. +0.79 at #66 Rutgers 67, #6 Wisconsin 62 (Jan 11)
10. +0.78 #95 Kansas State 66, at #19 Oklahoma 63 OT (Jan 10)

Top 10 Wins by KPI – FULL SEASON

1. +1.01 #1 Virginia 74, at #7 VCU 57 (Dec 6)
2. +1.00 #5 Duke 80, at #6 Wisconsin 70 (Dec 3)
3. +0.97 #1 Virginia 76, at #15 Maryland 65 (Dec 3)
4. +0.95 #2 Kentucky 72, #3 Kansas 40 (Nov 18)
5. +0.94 #2 Kentucky 58, at #22 Louisville 50 (Dec 27)
6. +0.94 #52 Wyoming 60, at #29 Colorado State 54 (Jan 7)
7. +0.93 #9 Iowa State 74, at #16 West Virginia 72 (Jan 10)
8. +0.93 #32 LSU 74, at #16 West Virginia 73 (Dec 4)
9. +0.90 at #42 Temple 77, #3 Kansas 52 (Dec 22)
10. +0.90 #19 Oklahoma 70, at #26 Texas 49 (Jan 5)

Top 10 Outlier Games by KPI – FULL SEASON

1. 122.1% #349 Non D-I/Ferris State 82, at #143 Bowling Green 68 (Dec 21)
2. 120.8% #349 Non D-I/SE Oklahoma State 69, at #85 Tulsa 66 (Dec 10)
3. 99.3% #332 Cal State-Bakersfield 55, at #82 California 52 (Dec 28)
4. 92.6% #206 Brown 77, at #18 Providence 67 (Dec 8)
5. 88.3% #334 UNC-Greensboro 80, at #168 East Tennessee State 79 (Dec 13)
6. 84.9% #347 Central Connecticut 56, at #264 Hartford 47 (Dec 6)
7. 81.8% #184 Northern Arizona 73, at #63 St. Mary’s-CA 71 (Dec 16)
8. 81.4% #338 Idaho State 67, at #199 Grand Canyon 51 (Dec 9)
9. 78.7% #244 Houston 77, at #87 Murray State 74 (Nov 14)
10. 78.4% #269 Nevada 64, at #88 UNLV 62 (Jan 7)

Season Scoring Trends:  Scoring has continued to trend down (down 4.47 PPG and 6.2% from last year).  Scoring in conference play is typically lower than non-conference, and this year is no different so far.  Teams averaged 67.6 PPG in non-conference play and are averaging 66.6 PPG in conference play.  The margin of victory is 10.6 PPG in conference games (compared to 16.6 in non-conference).