MBB Data Points: January 19, 2015

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Expected W-L:  The “expected” win-loss records for each team are now available on the KPI Rankings page.  These are calculated from the EXPs algorithm.  Other than the team “Non D-I” (Actual Record: 6-409, Expected Record: 0-415), Loyola-MD has overachieved their expected record by more wins than any other team.  14 teams are +4 on their expected W-L record.

Road Warriors:  Only two teams (Kentucky and Virginia) are undefeated on the road.  11 teams have one or fewer road/neutral losses (Gonzaga, West Virginia, Colorado State, Villanova, Duke, Wisconsin, Maryland, Louisville, Notre Dame, St. Mary’s, and TCU).

…And Home Warriors:  43 teams are undefeated at home.  Kentucky has 12 wins and Arizona, Utah, and San Diego State have 11 home wins.  Texas Southern is 2-0 at home (and has played 15 road/neutral games to date).

Close Games:  The average margin in conference games is 10.4 PPG (compared to 16.4 PPG in non-conference games).

Strength of Schedule:  For the second straight year, Kansas will likely finish with the top strength of schedule in the country.  They currently have the No. 1 SOS with a No. 11 Remaining SOS and a No. 1 Future SOS.  Their non-conference SOS is No. 4.

  1. #3 Kansas (14-3), .169 SOS
  2. #134 Texas Southern (7-10), .157 SOS
  3. #102 Long Beach State (9-11), .133 SOS
  4. #17 Butler (13-6), .129 SOS
  5. #7 VCU (15-3), .127 SOS
  6. #15 Oklahoma (12-5), .121 SOS
  7. #10 North Carolina (14-4), .120 SOS
  8. #2 Virginia (17-0), .114 SOS
  9. #31 Georgia (11-5), .109 SOS
  10. #35 Xavier (12-6), .107 SOS

Remaining Strength of Schedule:  Seven Big 12 teams and three Big East teams fill out the top remaining strength of schedules:

  1. #55 Kansas State
  2. #149 Texas Tech
  3. #71 TCU
  4. #19 Texas
  5. #16 West Virginia
  6. #98 Marquette
  7. #15 Oklahoma
  8. #114 Creighton
  9. #138 DePaul
  10. #43 Oklahoma State

Top 10 Wins by KPI – Week of Jan 12-18, 2015

  1. +1.01 #2 Virginia 74, at #7 VCU 57 (Dec 6)
  2. +1.01 #46 Miami-FL 90, at #5 Duke 74 (Jan 13)
  3. +1.00 #5 Duke 80, at #6 Wisconsin 70 (Dec 3)
  4. +0.97 #2 Virginia 76, at #13 Maryland 65 (Dec 3)
  5. +0.93 #58 Wyoming 60, at #40 Colorado State 54 (Jan 7)
  6. +0.92 #15 Oklahoma 70, at #19 Texas 49 (Jan 5)
  7. +0.91 #5 Duke 63, at #23 Louisville 52 (Jan 17)
  8. +0.90 #2 Virginia 62, at #25 Notre Dame 56 (Jan 10)
  9. +0.90 #1 Kentucky 58, at #23 Louisville 50 (Dec 27)
  10. +0.90 #1 Kentucky 72, #3 Kansas 40 (Nov 18)

Top 10 Wins by KPI – FULL SEASON

  1. +1.01 #46 Miami-FL 90, at #5 Duke 74 (Jan 13)
  2. +0.91 #5 Duke 63, at #23 Louisville 52 (Jan 17)
  3. +0.86 #44 Mississippi 96, at #22 Arkansas 82 (Jan 17)
  4. +0.83 #41 St. John’s 83, at #21 Providence 70 (Jan 14)
  5. +0.81 #17 Butler 79, at #26 Seton Hall 75 OT (Jan 13)
  6. +0.80 at #19 Texas 77, #16 West Virginia 50 (Jan 17)
  7. +0.79 #47 Texas A&M 67, at #36 LSU 64 (Jan 17)
  8. +0.78 #33 San Diego State 60, at #58 Wyoming 52 (Jan 14)
  9. +0.78 at #8 Arizona 69, #18 Utah 51 (Jan 17)
  10. +0.78 at #11 Iowa State 86, #3 Kansas 81 (Jan 17)

Top 10 Outlier Games by KPI – FULL SEASON

  1. 120.9% #349 Non D-I/SE Oklahoma State 69, at #93 Tulsa 66 (Dec 10)
  2. 120.1% #349 Non D-I/Ferris State 82, at #133 Bowling Green 68 (Dec 21)
  3. 93.3% #350 Central Connecticut 56, at #234 Hartford 47 (Dec 6)
  4. 92.1% #2223 Brown 77, at #21 Providence 67 (Dec 8)
  5. 91.5% #321 Cal State-Bakersfield 55, at #94 California 52 (Dec 28)
  6. 87.0% #210 Northern Arizona 73, at #49 St. Mary’s-CA 71 (Dec 16)
  7. 84.8% #339 Idaho State 67, at #201 Grand Canyon 51 (Dec 9)
  8. 84.3% #265 Houston 77, at #90 Murray State 74 (Nov 14)
  9. 82.5% #329 UNC-Greensboro 80, at #177 East Tennessee State 79 (Dec 13)
  10. 80.8% #295 Nebraska-Omaha 97, at #98 Marquette 89 (Nov 22)

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